Jabari Smith: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
Smith is an elite shooter at 6'10". If he improves athletically, he has superstar written all over him
The upside of a player like Jabari Smith is undeniable. A 6’10”, 40% 3-point shooter with an insanely smooth stroke, guys like Smith don’t grow on trees. Add to it some impressive defensive possessions and the ability to slide his feet to cut off perimeter drivers and Smith instantly fills one of the most important roles on a basketball court.
Smith joins elite company from a statistical perspective. He’s one of three players in NCAA history to rack up 7 rebounds, 1 block and 1 steal per game while making 75 3-pointers at above a 40% clip: he, Shane Battier and Kevin Durant. The rare combination of traits — defensive impact, high-volume shooting, rebounding and size — almost guarantees that Smith won’t fail as an NBA player.
Yet the eye test reveals some inherent risk in taking him in the top-three, where expectations will place him more as a star player (like Durant) when his outcome could be more like that of a highly-coveted role player (like Battier). Smith is befuddlingly less athletic on the offensive end than he is defensively, and it makes us skeptical that he can ever be a high-level offensive creator in the half-court.
Let’s make one thing clear before we go into the reasons why: Smith is already an elite play finisher. He shoots 40% from 3-point range in the most easily-translatable way possible. His form is pristine and at his size, he gets it off over any defender. A fadeaway or turnaround in the mid-post will be hard to stop, and he’s so damn consistent with those shots that it can be part of his primary arsenal.
But being a creator is different. Creating is being able to cause defenses to collapse, and the punish them for doing so by either scoring or kicking to an open teammate. Smith is auspiciously slow off the bounce, creating little to no separation from his man despite long strides and athleticism. I’m no biomechanical expert, but there is something off with his body type, his hips and his strides. Those factors limit his ability to handle at speed, to separate from a standstill, to take off with athleticism and the rim and to change direction.
The lack of quickness changes how he’s used. He likely will never be a pick-and-roll handler because of the separation issues. Face-up isolations on the perimeter won’t yield rim attacks. Ball handling worries make him a target to be pressured with the ball and give little remedy to beat that pressure.
Despite those valid concerns, there’s a question floating around in the back of our head throughout the discourse on Smith: is he such a good shooter that it doesn’t even matter?
Smith is still 6’10” and can shoot over the top of everyone and anyone. He makes tough shots in the mid-range. If he’s chased off the line, his mid-range pull-up is smooth and consistent. We’d rather see him pull up from there than try to get to the rim and be deterred. He needs virtually no airspace to raise into some of his go-to moves, such as the spinning turnaround jumper or the shimmy to fadeaway going left. The degree of difficulty of his makes, and the consistency with which he makes them, can supersede any athletic traits he lacks.
Scouts that we’ve spoken to are split on Smith’s projection as it relates to athleticism. One credentialed NBA scout spoke to us about his shooting being so good that it won’t matter, and the frame that he possesses — broad shoulders, long legs — as being ideal for carrying more weight to handle contact better. That scout described his body as that of a “young Dwight Howard” where he could become very chiseled, and then “remove defenders from his path with strength instead of speed.”
Another series of scouts shared in the concerns around his athleticism. One recalled his shot profile mirroring that of a “young Kristaps Porzingis”, while another called him “Kevin Garnett for the Celtics” with his reliance on turnarounds, spins and mid-range jumpers.
65.3% of Smith’s attempts in the half-court were jumpers. That’s a number higher than Porzingis (45.3%), and only two forwards/ centers to take at least 100 jump shots this NBA season took a higher percentage of their half-court shots than Smith: Mike Muscala (72.7%) and Kevin Love (70.1%), according to Synergy Sports Tech. Other NBA players with over 65% of their shots as jumpers: Durant (74.2%), Davis Bertans (88.8%), Danilo Gallinari (69.1%) and Otto Porter Jr. (68.7%).
On the same token, Smith gets a fair amount of his other attempts off post-ups — which also result in jump shots but are categorized differently on Synergy. He’s 6’10” and only 19% of his overall attempts come at the rim. The only players 6’10” or taller this year with an attempt rate that low: Durant, Gallinari, and Maxi Kleber.
His reliance on the jumper is notable, and it’s why we’ve compared him a bit to younger versions of Kevin Love in terms of his optimal usage. Teams should use Smith coming off screens and unique actions, running lots of pick-and-pop, and then forcing switches to dominate smaller guys in the post. We detailed some sets that could be transferrable to Jabari earlier this Winter in our Playbook for the Pros series:
Love was able to carry an offense for a while with the Minnesota Timberwolves, but his must successful team years came in a primarily spot-up role. Smith, like Love, is elite in the corners and from a catch-and-shoot perspective. Playing through him with certain lineups would be important if there’s a mismatch in his favor. But athletically speaking, Love was never utilized as a face-up creator or driver, and he had to shift to that secondary role when the game trended away from post-ups. Drafting Smith now is doing so to put him as an elite, nearly All-Star-caliber role player at his apex.
For some franchises drafting in the top five, that’s a worthwhile and valued addition. The Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets have found their backcourt creators of the future and could use some floor spacing along with a solid pick-and-pop threat. The Orlando Magic may have the same with Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs. The Trail Blazers offense could be lethal with him next to Damian Lillard, as could the Kings with him next to De’Aaron Fox.
All other teams may want to exercise caution in over-extending Jabari’s role projection as a primary creator and 20 point per game scorer. He’s a tough shot maker who has to be a tough shot maker in order to carry a team. His playmaking feel is suspicious and his defense not airtight by any means. Standing behind him at Auburn was one of the greatest shot blockers of all time at the college level. He got away with some concerning pieces of on-ball defense (which didn’t make it into the video) and got covered up by Walker Kessler.
Smith has an incredibly high ceiling, especially if he adds just a little more athleticism to his package where space creation and a first step become easier. If that’s the case, he’s an offensive hub. He’s a high-level floor-spacer. He’s a clutch shot-maker and undefendable mid-range scorer late-clock.
There’s also bust potential here in our opinion. He could easily be athletically outmatched and turn into more of a Danilo Gallinari or Maxi Kleber. Those guys are helpful NBA players but not ones you draft in the top five. We aren’t necessarily predicting this outcome, but believe it has to be considered when weighing risks and rewards of taking Smith over some other franchise-caliber prospects.
For the right team, Smith is and should be a top-three pick. For others, he’s closer to the 4 or 5 range on our board. This class is somewhat absent on high-caliber athletes to supplant him in our mind. Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren are much greater prospects to us. Jaden Ivey and Smith are in the same tier, depending on team fit. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe and even Bennedict Mathurin may join that tier before this cycle is complete.
The lowest we’d really look at taking Smith is sixth or seventh. The gamble on his upside as a shooter is worth it at that point in this draft class. But we are firmly not there on taking him as a top-two guy unless there are some noteworthy biomechanical changes he can make between now and June.
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