Jalen Duren: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
As the youngest prospect in this draft, figuring out Duren's pro impact is based on sifting through his elite physical tools and projecting where his skill level will take him
At only 18 years old, Jalen Duren is the youngest player in this draft class. Youth doesn’t always mean upside is most apparent with him, but Duren has proven to be a major upside target in the 2022 NBA Draft class. His raw physical tools — a plus-six wingspan and 250-pound chiseled physique as a teenager — set him apart from any other big man prospect.
Being a center in the modern NBA is an extremely difficult job. Rim protection, rebounding, pick-and-roll defense, rarely getting back-to-basket touches… it all comes with the territory. It often takes years for guys to figure out all the minutia that goes into being great at these areas. When it comes to drafting a big, patience is in order, and there’s little expectation that a big is really NBA-ready on the day they declare.
When scouting these types of players, we look for certain traits or indicators that show whether they have natural traits to be successful, how far along in the process they are to perfecting the necessary skills and what unique factors they add which could make them more than simply a replacement-level big. The fact of the matter is this: in the modern basketball landscape, there are more players who can contribute on an NBA floor as the 5-man than there are minutes available for guys to do so.
We use the term “replacement level” a lot to define this phenomenon. In order for a prospect to truly outshine at his position, he has to be clearly better than the dime-a-dozen candidates available in the G-League or waiting on bench units for more minutes. When so many big men fail to stand out in that regard, the standard for where to draft these players becomes heightened and separated into two tiers. There are the guys who meet that threshold and have a unique trait, and they are clear lottery talents, projectable starters at an important position. There are also the guys who seem talented but not unique or better than the depth already available at the position, and it is very hard to justify taking those players with an early selection.
By our measure, bigs tend to be the easiest players to project in the modern NBA. Their roles are often tidy and defined on both ends around a guard-centric attack. For years we’ve operated under specific criteria for taking big men early in the draft, in a range where a team would traditionally go to draft their franchise pillars. Without describing those criteria in-depth, it boils down to bigs being able to check at least four of these five areas:
Protect the rim as a weak-side shot-blocker
Finish plays off the pick-and-roll as a roller and short-roll playmaker
Excel in Drop coverage
Excel or possess the ability to switch ball screens defensively
Consistently make shots to 3-point range, either atop the key or in the corners
Our view on how steadfast these criteria should be followed has changed. Not necessarily due to Duren or other prospects, but because draft position is relative to talent, impact and upside. The placement in a draft board is based on a continuum, from upside to safety, and the likelihood of hitting both. Some bigs also possess unique games, such as Alperen Sengun a year ago, who likely checked one or two of these boxes but was so good at everything else as a basketball player he garnered a top-ten ranking.
Duren only stands to be helped by that shift and by the fact he’s the most talented big man in this draft class. Duren combines rebounding, powerful finishing and elite shot blocking. He’s shown a few glimpses of skill off the short roll, and he’s so much more athletic and strong than his contemporaries that the raw base to build skill on top of is the most intriguing in this class.
Duren’s role at Memphis needs a good deal of context. Penny Hardaway brought in two incredibly young, talented pieces (Duren and Emoni Bates) last summer to team up with an experienced, veteran college group. The guidance and savvy of their upperclassmen would help the team be competitive while those two figured out how to make the leap from juniors in high school to collegiate players.
For Duren, the impact was instant. He started from day one, ripped down a double-double in his second career game and physically proved he didn’t just belong but could dominate a college court. That in itself needs to be celebrated more than it has been and is so hard to accomplish; teammate Emoni Bates (and countless other freshmen) struggled with consistency and impact this year.
Our evaluation of Duren must consider the physical domination of the college level and the American Conference, though. So much about what prepared Duren to be a double-double producer as an 18-year-old were the physical gifts that nobody around him could match. He’s an elite leaper and rebounds everything, which allows him to make an impact on both ends. Where he’s far away is in the skill category, and that could catch up to him as he enters a league where his physical traits won’t cause him to even stand out, let alone dominate.