Jalen Wilson, Tosan Evbuomwan & Justyn Mutts: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Reports
For different reasons, Wilson, Tosan, and Mutts are three of the more intriguing and unorthodox frontcourt second round prospects
Now that we’re in the late part of the draft cycle, I’m going to start to transition to shorter scouting report videos. Every player in this draft who is in my top 40 already has a video done in full length. With these prospects who I have outside of my top 40 (and therefore project more as G-League guys, even if they get drafted), I’ll do shorter videos — and hopefully more of them!
To keep up with the rest of the prospects (and to try to not clutter your inbox with multiple posts a day), I’m going to be sending out some combo platters: two prospects at the same time with less depth but some to-the-point analysis on each. The idea is to group these prospects together based on some overlap or comparison point.
Today’s version dives into three frontcourt prospects who might get labeled as sleepers for drastically different reasons. We start with Jalen Wilson, one of the more accomplished players in this draft, who is coming off a season where he averaged 20 PPG and has previously won a National Championship.
Princeton’s Tosan Evbuomwan saw a significant rise during the NCAA Tournament and has parlayed that into some intrigue as an unorthodox offensive creator in the frontcourt. Virginia Tech’s Justyn Mutts is more of a defensive-minded prospect and versatile point forward, but he’s helped the Hokies reach a level of success that their program hasn’t enjoyed in a long time.
Will any of them hear their name called on draft night? Even if they do not, they’re primed to be older contributors to a team through the G-League and should get a shot to prove their worth and earn an NBA roster spot.
Jalen Wilson - F, Kansas
“Be good at what you do frequently.”
It’s a draft tenet that I’ve long believed in, and is an important part of how I go about structuring evaluations. While I’m watching a player and their skills, I have to think about how they’ll be utilized at the NBA level and what their role is going to be. Once I feel comfortable in finding that role, I try to place a lot of weight on the traits the prospect shows which would be utilized in that role.
For Kansas forward Wilson, a huge uptick in usage this year as an undersized 4-man caused a spike in offensive output. He jumped from 11.1 PPG to 20.1 PPG, doubling his shot attempts and taking the leading role for the Jayhawks all season long. Wilson wasn’t particularly efficient in that spot and will be smaller and less bursty of an athlete at the next level to take advantage of a long scoring leash. Simply put, I don’t see a high-level scorer out of Wilson in the NBA.
That leverages his spot-up and complementary roles a lot more for pro production. The catch-and-shoot jumper is an area that I don’t feel great with when it comes to Wilson’s projectability to the next level. This year, he shot 36-116 (31%) on spot-up no-dribble jumpers. That’s a very low rate, especially for a guy who projects mainly as an off-ball wing — and as someone who took 3.2 of them per game.
There is some shooting touch, but it’s hard to know if Wilson can and will unlock it consistently. This year, he shot over 40% on his unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts, a pretty good sign if he can get open looks from high-level creators. On the flip side, Jalen shot 28.8% on the same shot attempt a season ago, and his mechanics are slow enough that it feels like many more of his shots will be closely contested than they will be unguarded.
Wilson is more of a crafty driver and finisher, relying on touch near or around the basket. He requires some pre-catch movement to get downhill, and he struggles with shiftiness when smaller guys get up on him. That’s why Wilson strategically played the 4 in college, a position where he’ll have a massive size disadvantage in the NBA. I have my worries about his skill level as well. He’s reliant on going to his right and has a poor left hand. He isn’t a gifted live-dribble passer, often telegraphing his reads. He seeks out contact to the point where it’s obvious and he’s a charge candidate. He’s super runner-heavy, and strong individual defenders (like Jordan Walsh) really gave him fits.
Defensively, I’d describe Wilson as “solid but unspectacular.” His effort while undertaking a large offensive role is quite commendable. He’s solid positionally and does try to move his feet. But I’ve noticed that he’s somewhat grounded when contesting a finish near the basket on-ball. The lack of ability to simultaneously slide his feet and jump off one foot to challenge a shot does hamstring him a bit in terms of how many great scorers he can hold up against and truly bother.
Where Wilson really loses me is as a rotational defender. A four-year college player who has been in some high-leverage situations, I was really concerned with his lack of feel on that end. While I did commend Wilson for his effort on-ball, his off-ball effort was low this year. He pointed for switches whenever he could get them, ran into screens at a high rate, over-helped to sag into the lane (although that seems like it could be by design), and generally was late to understand his rotations once the defense got into scramble mode. There are tools to work with, just a surprising lack of rotational feel despite all the high-level basketball games he’s played in.
All of this leads to where Wilson is as a prospect: good at a lot of things, a guy who finds ways to be productive, but isn’t great at anything and doesn’t have that projectable main skill to become a dependable role player. Without seeing severe two-way talent or the ability for Wilson to be an impressive defender, I struggle knowing that his skill and propensity for scoring is going to fit neatly next to other NBA stars. Wilson’s productivity is laudable, though a multi-year college guy who hasn’t improved as an off-ball threat is really difficult for me to buy into. Despite the strong pedigree, I have Wilson outside of my top 60.
Tosan Evbuomwan - F, Princeton
Evbuomwan exploded onto the national scene during March Madness this year, guiding the Princeton Tigers to two upsets over Arizona and Missouri. Tosan’s story is heartwarming and his stock on the rise the last few weeks, but everything he’s put together in the Ivy League these last few years has steadily gotten him in a position to be on an NBA roster last year. I’ve been following Tosan since 2021, and there’s a lot of skill here in a unique 6’8” body.