John Butler, Moussa Diabate & Jaylin Williams: Draft Decisions

Three unique bigger guys all can make unique impacts at the next level. Is the NBA ready to roll the dice on helping them realize their potential?

Cue The Clash playing their hit song in their 1981 album Combat Rock. Pour a glass of a nice, full-bodied red. It’s time to talk about one of the more scintillating portions of the pre-draft process: the decisions made by young college athletes to declare for the NBA or return to school.

This Winter, we released a pseudo-guide of questions for bubble prospects to seek answers to before coming to a conclusion. Independent of that advice, there’s a genuine soul-searching process that must occur: what does the player want to do? Regardless of what may be in their best interest, an understanding that their happiness factors in — and cannot be anticipated on the outside — has to take place.

There are some names who truly wrestle with difficult decisions on late first-round spots versus rolling the dice to come back another year and strengthen their case. Those were the paths traveled by Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey just a season ago. Others — the ones we are focusing on in this series — have a bit of a lower draft stock in 2022, making it a more erratic or complex decision.

Hidden in the midst of this draft class are some talented individuals with tantalizing upside, really unrefined tools or enough promise to garner genuine second-round interest. They could forgo an additional year of college and hope that those traits are enough to land them a draft spot. Or they could opt to return, knowing that vast development and improvement is necessary to increase that draft spot.

There are several freshmen who are, to us, pretty easy decisions to declare for the draft or have already declared their intentions. Bryce McGowens of Nebraska, Josh Minott from Memphis, Blake Wesley from Notre Dame and Harrison Ingram from Stanford have all declared already. Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan of Baylor, Kennedy Chandler from Tennessee and Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. all make sense as guys who should come out this year as well.

Six other freshmen — Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duren, AJ Griffin, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and TyTy Washington — feel entrenched in the lottery at this point. Combined, there would then be 14 freshmen to declare for the draft. We’ve written previously both about the breadth of sophomores making a push for first-round status and the trends around one-and-done drafting. The results from those two studies showed that, traditionally speaking, few freshmen go in the second round.

Combine all these together and it squeezes the field a bit for other prospects just a half-step lower than the aforementioned names on draft boards. By our mark there are 15 key names to discuss and very few draft slots to covet. Will any make the leap and become “pre-draft” darlings by coming out before hitting their stride? Are there first-round guarantees even to be had? What should these players do, and what is unique about their specific situation?

John Butler - ATH, Florida State

Stats

19 MIN
5.9 PTS
3.2 REB
0.7 AST
0.8 TO
1.2 BLK
41.6% FG
39.3% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• Absolutely unique, one-of-a-kind prospect due to physical traits

• 7’0” shooting guard. Shot 39.3% from 3 on solid volume. Shooting specialist

• Rail thin frame with little upside to fill out. Should not step into the paint on either end very often

• Can run off screens, hit pull-ups and be used in unorthodox ways

• Worry about him being guarded by smaller athletes, pressured & never getting open off screens

• Special defensive prospect because he can block shots as a help defender. Uses his length well

• Must improve ball handling skills if he’s going to play on the perimeter more often

Our Recommendation: Test Waters & Declare

Butler needs to, at the very least, go through the pre-draft process this year. Get a few workouts in, get measured and speak to teams, then see if he can garner a first-round promise for such a unique skill set.

Ultimately, any decision to return to school is going to be based on what he can gain by a return to Tallahassee. If he speaks with NBA teams and executives during the pre-draft process and they can clearly describe what they’d want to see from Butler in an additional college season that could vault him into becoming a lottery pick, then there’s a decision to be made.

Butler is a unique prospect that requires an outside-the-box thinker to get the most out of. In a shallow freshman class, he should provide enough intrigue to get drafted even if he declares tomorrow, perhaps in the top-45. We can envision a world where he tests the waters and, based on that feedback from teams, stays in the draft even without the first-round promise.

Moussa Diabate - F, Michigan

Stats

24.9 MIN
9.0 PTS
6.0 REB
0.8 AST
1.5 TO
0.9 BLK
54.2% FG
21.4% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• Unique defensive prospect. Stands 6’10” but can move his feet on defense like a wing

• Not a great rim protector but has some upside on that end. Needs to get better as a leaper

• Switchability on defense is most intriguing for him long-term

• Most points come on interior. Developing reliable righty hook

• Has some perimeter offensive upside. Solid passer, takes other bigs off the bounce

• Not a good enough shooter (21.4% from 3) to play the 4 in the modern NBA

• If motor reaches its peak, will have a home in the NBA as a unique big man

Our Recommendation: Return to School

What a strange year for the Wolverines. Diabate came on pretty strong late and had some really impactful performances, but a return to school is certainly going to make him a more consistent prospect. Offensively we need to see a lot more despite the defensive flashes, and NBA teams won’t want to invest in another big man who isn’t quite a rim runner or PNR roller who has raw offensive traits. Diabate is best-served going back to school.

Jaylin Williams - F, Arkansas

Stats

31.6 MIN
10.9 PTS
9.8 REB
2.6 AST
1.8 TO
1.3 STL
1.1 BLK
46.1% FG
23.9% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• Elite charge-taker. Unique rim protector who combines blocked shots with charges

• Terrific rebounder. Great hands, comes away with 50-50 balls

• Tremendous passer. High processing speed, can facilitate atop key or off bounce

• Most finishing based on craft or as short roller with one bounce. OK athlete

• 3-point shot has to really come around. Not good enough right now to be guarded on perimeter

• A tad undersized to be a center in the NBA. Skill set can make it work

Our Recommendation: Test Waters, then Return to School

With Eric Musselman pulling in the 2nd-ranked recruiting class in the nation according to 24-7 spots, there’s a lot to gain from going back to school. None of the big-name recruits are bigs, so Williams’ spot in the rotation is secure. Winning and making more of a mainstream impact on the big stage next to guys like Nick Smith, Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh could vault the skilled big into solid first round territory.

There’s a small chance Williams is already there, and for that reason testing the waters has very little downside. Skill-wise, Williams may not gain much by going back to school unless he tries to stretch his range out to 3. Failing to do so won’t cost him money or draft spots, and could bring him the chance to compete for an NCAA Championship. We have a heavy lean towards returning to school here to see where he falls as more of a facilitator and role piece on offense, which will be akin to his optimal NBA role.

Our Pre-Draft Potential Series

Monday: Tyrese Hunter, JD Davison & Taran Armstrong
Tuesday: Moussa Diabate, John Butler & Jaylin Williams
Wednesday: Caleb Houstan, Trevor Keels & Dalen Terry
Thursday: Peyton Watson, Jake LaRavia & Aminu Mohammed
Friday: Malaki Branham, Terquavion Smith & Max Christie

Other names to watch next season: Matthew Cleveland, Florida State; Daimion Collins, Kentucky; Alex Fudge, LSU; Jordan Hawkins, UConn; Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga; Arthur Kaluma, Creighton; Brandon Murray, LSU; Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga.