Johnny Davis: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
A primary scorer with the Badgers, can Davis fulfill that role in the NBA?
Being a tough shot-maker is great. Having to be a tough shot-maker is not.
Herein lies our challenge in evaluating and projecting Johnny Davis, a prolific scorer at Wisconsin. The Badgers gave Davis free reign over the offense — to isolate, to take any shot he wanted and to play with the ball in his hands. He finished the season top-15 in individual usage rate as a result and led Wisconsin to the NCAA Tournament.
What did Davis do with that long leash? He took a ridiculously high amount of pull-up twos. Johnny was 5th in the nation in ‘short’ pull-up attempts (within 17 feet) and took more mid-range jumpers (148) than shots at the rim (134). This isn’t (necessarily) an analytics diatribe, though it’s worth understanding why Davis takes so many long twos, short mid-range jumpers and contested pull-ups.
Our best working theory relates to a bit of a flaw in his offensive game, one that has us a little squeamish about projecting him as a primary option. Davis isn’t in possession of blow-by speed to get to the rim.
Without a doubt, Davis is a positive offensive player and will likely be one at the NBA level. He’s long and strong, has good elevation on his jumper and uses contact to create space. He just relies on that mid-range jumper in the 7-17 foot range a lot. 38.6% of his dribble jumpers come from there. The list of NBA guards (minimum 100 attempts) to spend as much time in the short mid-range area this year: Chris Paul, Dejounte Murray, DeAaron Fox and Jalen Brunson. DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram and Kevin Durant are wings who also make the cut.
Davis would need to be in line for a ball-dominant, PNR-heavy role in order to see that shot become a valuable option. Guys like Fox and Paul use it to save their bodies the hassle on the interior from taking a beating at the hands of bruising rim protectors. Murray is a jump shooter with questionable range. Brunson is a Villanova veteran who mastered pump fakes, patient snakes and physical flick shots.
Davis fits into none of those categories right now. In fact, he’s the strongest and most physically gifted of them all. Davis loves to use his left shoulder to create contact, can handle contact well and has really good touch at the rim. He just chooses to use the contact to create a buffer that leads to a step-back instead of a layup. Davis gets to the line a fair amount and got better as the year went on at attacking the rim, to be fair.
Still, there’s an alarmingly high amount of pull-up jumpers in the mid-range that are caused by defenders cutting him off. Sure, he could slowly and methodically back his way down, but that isn’t a winning formula in the NBA — especially if his post-up opportunities lead to turnaround jumpers anyway.
Watching Davis’ scouting video and highlight package is going to be polarizing. Some will see an incredibly talented individual scorer who can make tough shots, create space for himself and make the challenged mid-ranges that most superstars are asked to — true All-Star potential. Others may see a bigger guard who isn’t overly explosive and takes so many of those jumpers because he can’t get to the rim, one who isn’t consistent to 3-point range off the bounce and isn’t a polished enough passer to be a well-rounded pick-and-roll creator.
Regardless of where we fall on the continuum of Davis’ offensive production, he will be a lottery (and likely top ten) player on our final big board. Why?
He has immense defense potential, a trait that may wind up being his most attractive to NBA scouts.