Keegan Murray: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

Murray exploded as a scoring forward at Iowa. Can he bring that offensive firepower to an NBA court without much adjustment to his game?

Keegan Murray is statistically excellent. He’s a new-age 4-man who is an efficient scorer, an adequate defender, puts the ball in the hoop from anywhere on the floor and has solid athletic traits. He exploded as a sophomore at Iowa, filling the void left behind by current Detroit Pistons big man Luka Garza.

Murray’s game is far more versatile and dynamic. He brings the same post-up arsenal to the table at 6’8”, but is much more sound and impactful on the perimeter. Rarely do we see the nation’s leader in post-up efficiency also dart off stagger screens to drill 3-pointers, dribble coast-to-coast for highlight slams or have elite touch with his righty finger rolls and layups.

Somehow, Murray does all of those and still manages to be efficient. He shot over 39% from 3-point range on plenty of attempts, looks that come in all different ways. He would spot up for catch-and-shoots, dribble into his shot in isolations, hit a few step-backs, buzz off screens and thrive in the pick-and-pop.

More than just a shooter, Keegan is great at getting to the rack. He summons spin moves at a rate that rivals Pascal Siakam, twisting and turning back to his right hand and using his wide, strong frame to get open. He has one of our favorite traits a big wing can have: the ability to play physically without being out of control. He’s strong but not overly imposing, creates contact but doesn’t over-embellish or push off. He gets to the free throw line with high frequency and can isolate anywhere on the floor while being a threat to get to the rim.

So what’s the catch? Murray’s offensive game sounds too good to be true in a lot of ways.

Scalability to the NBA is about finding your niche or being so damn dominant across the board (or athletically) that you can sustain such a wide-ranging skill set. Murray’s game is built off of angles, control and the threat of his shot. He has certain traits which threaten his ability to become an alpha in the NBA.

For one, Murray isn’t the quickest with his first step. His rim attempts are a function of craftiness, those clever spin moves and just physically getting through his defender. While he has great touch and finishing feel, his process of attacking the basket isn’t excellent. His shot-making off the bounce could be more fluid and speedy. His ball handling doesn’t have the same functionality of other self-creators in the league.

With his natural propensity to score, being a key cog in an offense is something we can envision. How much we buy into him realizing that potential is something we struggle with. Murray is insanely productive, and guys who are productive in so many areas rarely fail. The downside comes in some of the rougher, slower traits he possesses that can make fitting in on an NBA floor a tad more challenging than many perceive.

The biggest reason we are staying in on Murray: he’s a bit of an advanced stats darling. What he does on a per-minute basis from a production standpoint, while still being incredibly efficient, is mind-blowingly rare.