Kendall Brown: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

After a roller coaster freshman season at Baylor, Brown is hoping to not just be a first-round selection but figure out his confidence on the offensive end

Few prospects got off to a hotter start to the season than Kendall Brown. With his athleticism, efficient finishing and passing all on display, Brown had all the trappings of a lottery pick. An early-season outing of 13 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds against Nicholls State really grabbed headlines and attention.

Over his first 12 games, he averaged 13.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists while shooting an insane 71% from the field. He was low-volume on offense, but finished efficiently, flashed nice ball handling in the open floor and showed off impressive athletic tools for the defensive end.

Once the conversation around Brown being a potential lottery pick began, it was going to be hard to walk back his upside to at least be considered a first-rounder. The flashes were already on display, and the first impression he made was so strong that it would be easy to cling to that potential in the future.

The final 22 games of the year were a disaster. Brown averaged 7.9 points, shot 49.6% from the field (and 29% from 3), and only took 1.3 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game. All the upside, all the flashes of tantalizing athletic potential that Brown demonstrated out of the gates went away as he became not just a liability on offense but a guy who simply lacked confidence. It’s not like Brown’s start of the season was just the result of him beating up on mid-major programs. He had 15 points and 3 steals vs. Stanford, 14 against VCU, and 17 on the road at Oregon.

Upon our rewatch, we were really disappointed with the total body of work Kendall put together this year. The offense we knew was raw: he finished well at the rim but rarely shot it, didn’t know how to fit into Baylor’s half-court approach and never harnessed some apparent playmaking upside.

The defense, though, was much more of a challenge than we expected. Standing up on-ball, not playing as big or athletic as he is in theory, falling victim to some switches… this wasn’t the same prospect we expected to see after the start to the year.

In a way, the draft is kind of like the popular television show Shark Tank. Oftentimes, the investors (the sharks) don’t understand a product or see the way that they add value to the company, but feel compelled to make an offer. Why? They believe strongly in the entrepreneur. The obstacles, challenges, market interruptions don’t matter when they believe the person they’re giving money to is built to overcome all those factors.

We think the draft is pretty much the same way. When a team hands a contract to their draft pick, they’re essentially saying “we think you can get better and help us win basketball games. You have to get better or else you won’t last. But we believe in you — the person, not just the player — to get to that point.” The traits that go into this are often buzzwords, but they’re relevant even if they’re tough to describe: character, determination, communication, work ethic, and confidence.

It’s hard to explain how confidence works, and how to spot it (or its absence) on the basketball court. What we maintain throughout our draft evaluation process is Pillar #10 of our Ten Commandments of scouting: we’re investing in the person as much as the player. Something is going on with Kendall, the person, with his confidence on a basketball court. And whatever it is, however it can get fixed, isn’t available to our limited purview from the outside. We’re simply scared away by the factors around Brown.

While defense is the alleged calling card for Brown, he’s still got a ways to go on that end of the floor. He stands up far too much on-ball, leading to drive-bys and a lack of lateral quickness. He is more than capable of crowding guys, but he needs to play lower.

The same goes for his help defense. There are times when he makes smart rotations, picks off skip passes and is impactful digging down from one away. But those are less frequent than you’d hope for a guy who, based on his reputation, would be a defensive specialist at the next level.