Kenneth Lofton Jr & Moussa Diabate: Mini Scouting Reports
Two young frontcourt prospects with drastically different backgrounds are both fighting for draft positioning
As we wind down the pre-draft process, time is alluding us. There simply isn’t time left for a deep dive into each prospect in the way we’d want to do. No more ten-minute scouting videos, full six-category breakdowns, individually-dedicated scouting reports.
What we can offer instead is a chance to look at two players at a time, perhaps comparing their overlaps or making a point about how differently they’re treated in draft circles. We’ll provide some five-minute scouting report videos, a quick breakdown of our thoughts in written form, and maybe a draft prediction or two based on intel we’re hearing around the league.
This approach — covering more prospects instead of looking at fewer in great detail — seems vital to encompassing the 2022 draft class. The way this draft is shaking out, there could be as many as 50 players in play for a first round selection. Beyond that, the end of the draft is wide open. Of those 50 players we hear rumors about with the first, at least a dozen of them could easily go undrafted as well. There’s a great deal of volatility with draft ranges. As a result, there are probably 75-90 guys we need to look at and prepare for going into draft night.
Both Moussa Diabate and Kenneth Lofton Jr. are talented big men, and neither will turn 20 years old until their NBA careers begin. Lofton, the more offensive-minded of the group, is a really sturdy offensive producer as an undersized post, relying on his wide frame and touch near the rim. Diabate is intriguing because of his defense and mobility, making up for the lack of refinement on his offense.
Which type of prospect will teams prefer to work with, and how will that impact their draft positioning?
Kenneth Lofton Jr., Louisiana Tech
A fan favorite due to his emotional style on-court and unique, throwback 1990s game, Lofton is a popular sleeper pick in the NBA draft. He’s much more skilled offensively than his reputation allows for, as he isn’t just a brutish low post scorer. Lofton uses his wide shoulders well, but he has incredibly polished footwork, a bevy of quick moves off the catch, good feel as a passer for double teams and really good touch at the hoop.
Three complaints about Lofton’s offense stand out at first glance. First, he is a little too left-hand dominant. His right lacks touch near the rim, and even with long arms, he’s only 6’6” as a big man, not necessarily large enough to compensate for how defenders can play him to that weakness. Second, he gets himself into trouble going to his left hand a ton, and help defenders sit on that shoulder by jumping him whenever he goes to his right. His turnover rate is high as a result.
Third, and perhaps most crucial to his NBA translation, is the lack of a trustworthy jumpshot. Lofton drilled just 20% of his 3-pointers during his sophomore year at Louisiana Tech. While he has slimmed down and shot it better during workouts and at the combine, it’s still difficult to trust that moving forward.
We start with Lofton’s offense not because it’s the fulcrum of his game, but because it has to be very reliable in order for him to carve out an NBA future. His defensive effort, lateral quickness and fit in nothing but a severe Drop coverage scheme hold him back. There’s a bit of an Enes Kanter element to predicting Lofton’s career: his offense has to be projectable enough to compensate for the defense.
We think there’s a little more upside to Lofton than is available at first glance. He’s a high-feel prospect, tremendously skilled in the open floor as a handler and a great positional rebounder. Last year at the FIBA U-19 World Championships, Lofton started on the U.S. Gold Medal squad, averaging 13.1 PPG and shooting 65% from the field. He did not attempt a 3-pointer and was blanketed by Chet Holmgren playing next to him.
The circumstances of that team brought out the best in Lofton, to the point where we can see how an NBA team could recreate those friendly confines and turn Kenny into a producer at the next level. The question is whether his production is worth it. As the level of play increases, the value of polished post scoring goes down: it won’t catch one-on-one defenders as unprepared as it can in the U-19 or collegiate settings. Lofton is a fringe draftable prospect who might be best-served fighting through the G-League, where he can find the right balance between modernizing his game and seeing if his low post scoring can be dominant enough to get a shot in the NBA.
Moussa Diabate, Michigan
When evaluating big men in the draft, we tend to look for a few factors to anticipate how they’ll hold up on the defensive end of the floor. One is size: their height, their standing reach, the type of body they have (skinny or full). Another is athleticism: their leaping ability, the quickness of their feet in tight spaces.
The third factor is the one that can be taught but is incredibly important: their timing & angles. If a prospect can avoid biting on pump fakes, position themselves in the right areas, see plays from the weak side before they rotate, time up their footwork, jump vertically… all these things matter for positive rim protection.