Malaki Branham, Terquavion Smith & Max Christie: Draft Decisions

Three high-ceiling scorers have seen their draft stock rise and fall throughout the season. Where does it stand right now?

Cue The Clash playing their hit song in their 1981 album Combat Rock. Pour a glass of a nice, full-bodied red. It’s time to talk about one of the more scintillating portions of the pre-draft process: the decisions made by young college athletes to declare for the NBA or return to school.

This Winter, we released a pseudo-guide of questions for bubble prospects to seek answers to before coming to a conclusion. Independent of that advice, there’s a genuine soul-searching process that must occur: what does the player want to do? Regardless of what may be in their best interest, an understanding that their happiness factors in — and cannot be anticipated on the outside — has to take place.

There are some names who truly wrestle with difficult decisions on late first-round spots versus rolling the dice to come back another year and strengthen their case. Those were the paths traveled by Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey just a season ago. Others — the ones we are focusing on in this series — have a bit of a lower draft stock in 2022, making it a more erratic or complex decision.

Hidden in the midst of this draft class are some talented individuals with tantalizing upside, really unrefined tools or enough promise to garner genuine second-round interest. They could forgo an additional year of college and hope that those traits are enough to land them a draft spot. Or they could opt to return, knowing that vast development and improvement is necessary to increase that draft spot.

There are several freshmen who are, to us, pretty easy decisions to declare for the draft or have already declared their intentions. Bryce McGowens of Nebraska, Josh Minott from Memphis, Blake Wesley from Notre Dame and Harrison Ingram from Stanford have all declared already. Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan of Baylor, Kennedy Chandler from Tennessee and Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. all make sense as guys who should come out this year as well.

Six other freshmen — Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duren, AJ Griffin, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and TyTy Washington — feel entrenched in the lottery at this point. Combined, there would then be 14 freshmen to declare for the draft. We’ve written previously both about the breadth of sophomores making a push for first-round status and the trends around one-and-done drafting. The results from those two studies showed that, traditionally speaking, few freshmen go in the second round.

Combine all these together and it squeezes the field a bit for other prospects just a half-step lower than the aforementioned names on draft boards. By our mark there are 15 key names to discuss and very few draft slots to covet. Will any make the leap and become “pre-draft” darlings by coming out before hitting their stride? Are there first-round guarantees even to be had? What should these players do, and what is unique about their specific situation?

Malaki Branham - W, Ohio State

Stats

29.6 MIN
13.7 PTS
3.6 REB
2.0 AST
1.7 TO
49.7% FG
41.6% 3FG
0.7 STL

The Quick Scouting Report

• Smooth pull-up scorer and self-creator with really high upside

• Stands 6’5” with a 6’10” wingspan. Great size for playing the 2

• Got so much better as the season went on. Confidence grew with every outing

• Hit his 3-pointers this year despite that being a concerning coming into college

• Average athlete, but needs a runway to consistently play above the rim

• Not a natural passer or creator for others. Scoring is what he does

• Has to get better on defense. Too thin, not competitive enough on that end

Our Recommendation: Declare for the 2022 NBA Draft

Following an impressive close to the season, Branham is heavily viewed as a guy who should declare amongst some scouting minds we greatly respect. If he’s going to get legitimate first-round love and gains a promise from a team, there’s no reason he should return to school. He passes the eye test and the numbers test, and the buzz around him is very high after ending the season on a positive note against Villanova.

We aren’t the biggest fans of his game and can’t really put our finger on exactly why. The draft stock should determine whether Branham declares, not our opinion on his play, and right now he has very real first-round buzz. It would be safe for him to maintain the option to return to Columbus, but based on where his stock is, he’s going to get drafted in the first.

Terquavion Smith - CG, NC State

Stats

31.6 MIN
16.3 PTS
4.1 REB
2.1 AST
1.5 TO
39.8% FG
36.9% 3FG
1.3 STL

The Quick Scouting Report

• Incredibly skinny scoring guard. Maybe weighs 165 pounds

• Never met a shot he didn’t like. Unlimited confidence, especially from 3

• Pull-up scoring from deep, even in isolations, is highly-coveted skill he has

• Really good athlete when attacking the basket. If frame fills out, scary potential

• Solid but unspectacular passer. Has flashes of creativity

• Frame is part of his defensive woes. Engagement on that end is the other

• Very inconsistent. Love him some games, turned off by him during others

Our Recommendation: Return to School

Another year with this level of scoring, filling out his body a bit and (hopefully) getting the Wolfpack out of the ACC basement would go a long way for Smith. He’s irrationally confident in the most admirable way possible, but there are shot selection concerns to reel in. A little increased feel can come without the expense of raw numbers or production. Smith should go back for another year — whether it’s at NC State or a different destination.

Max Christie - W, Michigan State

Stats

30.8 MIN
9.3 PTS
3.5 REB
1.5 AST
1.5 TO
38.2% FG
31.7% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• In theory, fantastic 3-point threat with silky smooth stroke. Shot it poorly

• Started the season well but tanked in February. Hit “freshman wall” hard

• Solid athlete. Can attack the rim when curling screens/ cutting backdoor

• Sturdy pull-up jumper, too. Can attack a closeout and score in mid-range

• Seemed to lack confidence this season; didn’t look comfortable in their offense

• Decent defender. Tend to trust guys on that end who played for Tom Izzo

• Optimal role at next level is movement shooter. Reminds me of Kevin Huerter

• Turned 19 during the season. Young for his class, could use extra year

Our Recommendation: Return to School

Christie hit the freshman wall pretty hard, and his 3-point shooting fell off. Over the final 20 games of his season, Christie shot 26.7% from 3 — an abysmal mark capped off by going 1-6 in the NCAA Tournament. As a shooting specialist, you can’t finish the season shooting 31.7% from deep.

Christie needs consistency, and while shooters are always coveted, he’s likely going to be a guy you see drafted in the second round if he declares. He’s another guy with lottery upside that he can realize if he sharpens just a few areas.

Our Pre-Draft Potential Series

Monday: Tyrese Hunter, JD Davison & Taran Armstrong
Tuesday: Moussa Diabate, John Butler & Jaylin Williams
Wednesday: Caleb Houstan, Trevor Keels & Dalen Terry
Thursday: Peyton Watson, Jake LaRavia & Aminu Mohammed
Friday: Malaki Branham, Terquavion Smith & Max Christie

Other names to watch next season: Matthew Cleveland, Florida State; Daimion Collins, Kentucky; Alex Fudge, LSU; Jordan Hawkins, UConn; Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga; Arthur Kaluma, Creighton; Brandon Murray, LSU; Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga.