Mark Williams: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
Many don't like to draft centers too high. Williams has such a clear, positive translation to the NBA that he may be the exception to the rule
Drafting is highly related to scarcity. Teams value that which is rare, which they cannot teach or refine easily. In today’s NBA, scarcity is in 3-point shooting and creation at size, freak athleticism combined with ball handling and in either great natural tools on the wing or elite skill elsewhere.
What gets pushed to the back is a position that is less valued than ever before: non-shooting bigs. There are tons of reasons for that change. About a decade ago, the league made a transition towards 3-point shooting and spacing on offense, all but abolishing two-big lineups. As 4-men were required to be smaller and more shooting-oriented to win, the sheer amount of big men who were talented enough to log NBA minutes outpaced the minutes available for them all.
Another change took place in the middle of the 2010s, when the Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green’s brilliance forced the rest of the league to attempt small-ball lineups that essentially featured no bigs. In order to keep the one big on the floor, many would go to Drop pick-and-roll coverage and protect the paint, as rim attacks were more uncontested and required an expert big man to lock down the paint. But by going small with no bigs, that lone big man gets sucked away from the basket and exposed on the perimeter. Unless that big is a lethal post-up threat, most don’t make up for the difference on the other end and get played off the floor.
As a result, big men have been placed into a box in draft circles. They either have to be so transcendent and talented to never be played off the floor in those situations (and therefore worth a top-7 pick in most drafts) or are so easily replaceable that it makes little sense to draft one until the late-20s or the second round, where there’s little risk or opportunity cost to making the investment.
We used to subscribe to this line of thinking, and to an extent we still do. But what gets lost in the conversation is the value in having a really good big man, even if it comes with a few situations in which their role becomes less than optimal. At some point, pushing down a big man based solely on his position and not on his skill means passing up on taking a very good prospect for someone who likely won’t reach that level of impact. Drafting is far too hard, and success depends on factors outside a team’s control, to pass up on impactful players when they are on the board.
For months, we’ve been driving the Mark Williams hype train. He is an impactful player at the next level. His rim protection traits are already pretty strong, but have so many areas where they can get better with NBA polish. He’s 7’0” with a legitimate 7’7” wingspan, the highest in this draft class. His length combines with solid explosion off the floor on both ends, an incredibly high motor and decent mobility to make him a fantastic defensive prospect. What he does well and the natural tools he possesses are clear translators to rim protection and Drop PNR coverage.
Beyond that, Williams’ offensive arsenal has a similarly easy transition to NBA basketball. He led college basketball in dunks this year; he plays above the rim and throws down lobs in the short corner dunker spot. He has enough touch and body control to be excellent as a PNR roll man, making him an ideal big to pair with an offensive-minded guard.
We aren’t saying Williams will have an immediate starter-like impact on an NBA team. Big men always take a little bit of time to add seasoning for their defensive work, as rim protection in the league is incredibly detail-oriented. But we’re saying that from what we’ve seen at Duke, there is no reason not to make an investment in a guy like Williams being a high-caliber starting center in the NBA. That alone should make him a lottery pick and challenge the notion that big men without elite levels of skill should fall to the later parts of the draft.
Modern NBA rim-rolling bigs play a very similar style to Williams. They block shots at one end, use their unique length and athleticism to explode off the floor and slam them on the other and carve out impactful careers doing just that.
What we’ve seen from Williams at Duke shows a few other areas in which he can be impactful.