Mark Williams Early-Season Scouting Report
An energy big with size and intangibles, Williams challenges conventional wisdom on where to draft non-stretch bigs
“Be humble. Be hungry. Always be the hardest worker in the room.”
For so many elite talents, tapping into their motor isn’t something they have to do consistently. Their natural talents, overwhelming athleticism and dominance in comparison to competition allows them to coast at times. Young players frequently don’t develop a strong motor because, quite frankly, they don’t need it to gain success.
At some point, those same players rise to a level where the competition is at their equal. Once there, the separator isn’t as much the natural traits being so overwhelming but the motor that accompanies them. When natural talent can only carry you so far, your habits and your work ethic have to take over.
By our measure, no young college player has taken that message to heart at a younger age than Mark Williams at Duke. Back in 2019, ESPN Recruiting Analyst Paul Biancardi described Williams’ game and mentioned that hard-working mentality he brings to the table:
“[Williams] is a true center who is active, mobile and plays with a self-motivated motor. He impacts the transition game with his ability to run, change directions, and make chase-down blocks or lob dunks. In the half-court set, his defensive presence stands out as a shot-blocker and rebounder. Offensively, he will produce right away as a lob catcher and a drop-off finisher.”
Pretty spot-on from Biancardi. After going to IMG Academy and garnering a top-25 recruit ranking according to RSCI, the 7’0” big man was a McDonald’s All-American. Duke was in the family lineage; his older sister Elizabeth was a star player for the Blue Devils before being drafted into the WNBA, so he chose to head to Durham to join one of the most storied programs in the nation.
As a freshman during the COVID-shortened season, Williams struggled out of the gates. In his first nine games, Williams played only 5.8 minutes per game, scoring 13 total points and tallying 18 rebounds. Over his next eight games, Williams popped himself up in the rotation and produced: in 16.3 minutes per game, he averaged 6.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and an astounding 2.3 blocks.
The breakout performance for Williams came against Syracuse on February 22nd. Drawing the start, Mark went 9-10 from the field and put up his first double-double with 18 points and 11 boards. Dunk after dunk he threw down, he was out-working every Syracuse player on the floor. He showed off his vertical athleticism, his ability to run the floor and his fight on the offensive glass:
The Syracuse game started a string of terror that Williams unleashed on the ACC to close the year. Over his final six games, he averaged 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals while shooting a baffling 74.6% from the field. An energy big man was born and became one of the names to watch coming into the 2021-22 season.
Thus far, Williams has picked up where he left off despite being in a lesser-featured offensive role. He’s averaging 9.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game while shooting 65% from the field. The increase in blocks and rim protection metrics, while taking on a lesser role in the offense as the Blue Devils run fewer high pick-and-rolls with their talent-loaded roster, is indicative of a prospect truly embracing his spot with this team.
There isn’t much doubt about what Williams is and how his game projects to the NBA. He’s an Energizer Bunny of a big man, a pogo stick who will slam lobs and roll to the rim. He is a fantastic leaper, blocks shots and plays with no fear on defense, then takes off and sprints down the floor as fast as he can. He’s a rim-runner, defensive anchor and screen-and-roll big man.
Here’s where the difficulty of the evaluation on Williams as a prospect really comes in. Three questions are needing to be answered:
How special are Williams’ athletic traits that allow him to dominate games in college?
What are the investments that need to go into adding more diversity to Williams’ game?
Does a big man without elite feel or versatility have a ceiling on their draft stock, and if so, what are the extenuating circumstances that would challenge that ceiling?
Let’s start with the athletic traits. Williams is as fluid of an end-to-end sprinter as we’ve seen in a seven-footer in some time. When he gets a stop and Duke secures possession, Williams takes off for the other end, routinely beating other bigs down the floor. He can run wings like a guard and makes it look effortless; his long strides cause him to look like he’s exerting himself less than he really is.
Bigs who don’t shoot it well need to find a home on the floor. When they can, they usually set picks and then roll to the rim, helping to spring open their teammates with the ball. If they don’t have the opportunity, they space to the dunker spot in the short corner. Within distance for a catch-and-finish lob, there’s gravity that comes from putting a big man in the dunker spot who can terrorize the rim. One defender helps uphill and Williams throws it down:
Right now, Williams plays with a few of the best drivers in college basketball: a slashing brute in Trevor Keels, a top pick candidate in Paolo Banchero, Swiss Army Knife wing Wendell Moore and solid distributor Jeremy Roach. That level of talent or ability to get into the paint is akin to what he’ll be surrounded by at the NBA level. At the very least, this is a skill that translates, and Williams’ natural athleticism makes him a prime candidate here. A nearly ten-foot standing reach plus his vertical pop are perfect for the position.
As a roller, Williams gets his buckets gift-wrapped in many ways. Teams who have played Duke thus far employ more aggressive PNR schemes, meaning the roller is open immediately. Those mid-major teams haven’t done a great job against him, while places like Gonzaga or Ohio State shut down the roll a bit more.
Pair him with an elite PNR guard or driver and it’s easy to see Williams thriving in a Jarrett Allen-like role:
Williams still has some kinks to work out in his game. He isn’t a great screen-setter, opting for touch-and-go or slip looks almost exclusively. While he weighs 245 pounds, there is still a lack of core strength apparent to hold up next to contact. He’s patient with his footwork on the interior but doesn’t have the most reliable hands and occasionally bobbles the basketball. Athletically, the first is one that can definitely be fixed through time and an NBA-caliber strength program. For a lob catcher, the stone hands are a slight worry.
Skill-wise, Williams can add polish to his pick-and-roll game. He’s a bit square off the catch, slightly one-dimensional in needing to finish at the rim and doesn’t time his jumps perfectly — he relies on his arms simply being longer and his teammates getting him open, not necessarily on leaping out of the gym every time. That doesn’t even mention the short roll game, which is a trait that has to come along.
He can get by for now on finishing over the top of help defenders with his length. In the NBA, a play like this against Army will need to be a pass to the opposite corner. Something about how he catches it and his footwork shows a lack of dexterity and confidence to be a quick processor:
That’s really our starting point to answer question #2: how can Williams add more diversity to his game? More than anything, we need to see some development of skill with the ball in his hands. As a scout, I’ve consistently trumpeted the phrase “just because a player doesn’t show something isn’t proof that he can’t do it.” Guys play the role that is assigned by their coach to best make the pieces fit on their current roster.
That said, Williams’ small moments with the ball in his hands are indicative of a lack of playmaking feel. In an NBA where short roll playmaking and facilitating atop the key in the now-universal Delay actions are king, Williams isn’t put in those situations a lot at Duke to show direct translation (or lack thereof). Instead, we go off smaller indicators for feel, such as passing out of the post, the natural feel of taking one or two dribbles, etc.
Dribble handoffs and hi-lo passes, the bare minimum that big guys tend to do in college against mid-major teams, have been a struggle for Williams:
If catch-and-finishes aren’t available, Williams doesn’t really have a great arsenal of counter-moves to score. He has long arms and can sustain contact or pump fake and still dunk it, but once the defense settles him and forces him to play one-on-one, the results are uninspiring. The Ohio State game on Tuesday, November 30th exposed that for him, going 3-6 at the rim and being forced into post hooks. Williams is only 4-9 on post-ups in 2021.
Additionally, Williams has taken one jumper all year: a “dare you” shot against Gonzaga when his primary defender sagged so far off that they were in different counties. The form was clearly not there: no lift on the jumper, a lack of confidence from the start and underwhelming lower body mechanics.
A 54.7% career free throw shooter in college doesn’t inspire much confidence, and could lead to the possibility of him being pulled in late-game lineups. That’s a red flag as far as we’re concerned for top-20 picks, when the aim should be for end-game contribution and not just high-end role players.
Being a rim-bound big man finisher isn’t the kiss of death for a prospect, especially one with Williams’ natural tools. But the game of basketball is changing; fewer of those guys deserve large carved-out roles, and the ones who have them are often deemed easily replaceable. Of the 88 players listed on basketball-reference’s stat page who qualify as centers, only seven have played at least 20 minutes a game and not attempted a 3-pointer (Steven Adams, Daniel Gafford, Mason Plumlee, Jakob Poeltl, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams and Ivica Zubac). Only one of those, Mitchell Robinson, has fewer than one assist per game.
That’s the development of today’s NBA. It’s become an “either-or” situation with shooting and playmaking at the big spot. An inability to shoot doesn’t cripple you, nor does poor passing feel alone. The combination is troublesome. If Williams isn’t setting a screen, he’s almost bound to the short corner, and in today’s NBA, those players are the most easily replaceable. Shit, even the Brooklyn Nets would put a defensive-minded guard in Bruce Brown there, rolling the dice on his finishing so they could switch everything on defense.
Which leads us to point number three: what is the true draft ceiling on a big man without elite feel or versatility? We’ve set four boxes that are needed for a post player to be taken in the lottery, and we still find it valid that either all four are checked or three are checked with one being a definitely translatable elite skill.
Be able to protect the rim and rebound
Be able to play in multiple PNR schemes on defense (switch, Drop, etc.)
Finish everything as a roller
Have shooting potential as a stretch big
It’s pretty clear that Williams is very far from unlocking potential as a shooter, so drafting him with checking that box in mind is akin to career suicide. Which leverages his draft stock in a different sort of way: is what Williams does elsewhere at an elite enough level to justify viewing him as a top-half of the first-round prospect?
That’s where the defensive analysis has to come in. Williams is a really good shot blocker, and no big man comes into the NBA to swat shots as the rim protector without going through a bit of a learning curve. The most difficult position to adjust to at the pro level, scouts look for some natural traits to anticipate their success once the polish is added: standing reach, reactions and instincts to block shots off a one-two step and hip turn, propensity to square contact to their chest instead of swat from the side, second jump ability and the frame/ strength of the chest to absorb contact.
Williams doesn’t have all these traits in his favor, but he has some. If there’s a pathway forward, it’s through the Mitchell Robinson model where he needs to be an excellent shot blocker and PNR defender. The 22 blocks are mainly manifesting themselves as early-season feasting on low-major competition. Against Samford and Army, many guys shot the ball right into his hands and didn’t have the quickness to maneuver around his supreme length.
An impressive showing against Gonzaga proved that his shot blocking timing and emphasis on verticality isn’t reserved solely for games where he’s that much larger than everyone else. Stuffing Chet Holmgren at the rim, chasing and timing his leaps from behind, the five block performance against the Zags was his signature moment and helps Williams stand out as a high-end rim protector prospect.
Last season against Louisville in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils went to a “switch everything” scheme, putting Williams in the position where he’d guard smaller players in space. The big man had some encouraging possessions, and at the very least was able to force multiple jump shots instead of letting guys get to the rim.
Whether this is a viable long-term option remains to be seen. The Blue Devils haven’t committed to such a strategy this season, and Williams might be exposed in greater outings by a team more prepared to counter their scheme. The Cards played right into Duke’s hands by taking mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper, or turning it over trying to feed the post for mismatches. The NBA isn’t quite as forgiving in those ways. Let’s put switchability as a “wait-and-see” for Williams, but the athletic indicators are there to suggest he’ll be capable.
Drafting Mark in the first round is as much of a philosophical evaluation as it is a skill-driven one. As of now, Williams doesn’t garner a top-20 grade on our board due to some of his own limitations and the issues with drafting a flawed big that early. In a draft class that is underwhelming in terms of guard play, there’s some conversation about rising on boards comparatively. We’re huge fans of Williams, and what could cause him to rise from the back-end of the first round towards the middle is really the quality of the rest of this class.
Let’s go back to the Mitchell Robinson comparison, a guy who similarly doesn’t shoot or create for others but is a monster rim protector and lob threat. Robinson was taken 36th overall, and has been seen by many as a top-ten pick in re-drafts. To us, the teams got it right the first time by letting him go in the 25-40 range. Robinson hit and became a rotation player for the New York Knicks early in his career. He’s shooting nearly 80% from the field, blocking two shots a game for his career and is one of the league’s premier offensive rebounders.
Yet Robinson shows what happens when a team hits insanely well on the pick (we’re not sure if you can be better in your role than shooting 80% from the field in the NBA) and still can’t carve out a definitive starting spot. Robinson will be off the floor for stretches late in games as the Knicks opt to go small. A similar fate could be awaiting Mark Williams in the pros.
Based on his athleticism and the efficiency with which Williams plays his role, he’s a first-round talent and should be invested in by an NBA team. Expecting development of the missing areas in his game is more hopeful than rooted in anything we’ve seen that indicates growth is likely. If Williams is to outperform his draft stock, he’s going to need to rely on that motor to carry him and become a stalwart defensive presence.