Mid-Season Risers: Jett Howard
Mid-Season Risers: Jett Howard
The smooth-shooting wing has been consistent for the Wolverines and finds himself firmly in the lottery discussion
We’re right around the halfway point in the college basketball season. It’s mid-January, conference play has begun, and the small sample size arguments for most players and teams are getting minimized. We have a decent feel for most prospects: what aspects of their game are strengths, which need to improve, and how close they are to matching the typical output/ upside seen out of draftable players.
Patience is always key. It’s easy to jump to conclusions after only a few games, to have implicit biases based on who is seen first and how a player performs right out of the gates. I always like to wait until a few games into the conference schedule to start really feeling comfortable placing players into different buckets — top-5, lottery, first round, not draftable, etc. Conference play tends to reveal much about how players are defended with a focus on their tendencies, the level of competition tends to be more even, and as a result, we get a clearer view of prospects in hypercompetitive environments.
Now, we’re starting to give more concrete takes on where prospects might belong based on the cumulation of film through the season. Over the next few weeks, we’re going to be looking at several mid-season risers, the prospects who are very much in the public discussion over being a first-rounder despite little preseason buzz of getting them in that territory. Our goal is to figure out how legitimate that label is, as well as project out the strengths and improvement areas of their game.
Through 18 games, Jett Howard of Michigan has established himself as a shoo-in to be a one-and-done prospect. He rarely has an off night, is a legitimate 3-point shooter at 6’8”, and combines good passing feel with a little bit of scoring off the bounce. He’s gaining confidence as a high-volume scorer within the Michigan offense, one that is designed to shield his deficiencies from coming out often.
It’s easy to get excited about Howard as a pro prospect. He’s 6’8”, spaces the floor well next to other stars, shoots on the move, and knows how to create for others. He’s the ideal fourth option on a good team while having enough one-on-one flashes to give confidence that he’ll someday be able to create his own.
Howard is also a very unathletic 6’8”. His length is pretty mundane and his vertical burst is nonexistent (he has three dunks on the season, only one of which came through half-court offense). He gets targeted endlessly on the defensive end, where the lack of bend, physicality, and quick footwork can doom him at times.
Jett is a very good prospect, currently receiving a lottery grade and within striking distance of the top-ten in this class. His shooting purity and versatility alone get him within that range. But the defense is a clear issue and the lack of rim finishing (only 15 half-court rim attempts in 18 games) limits his upside in clear ways.
Offense
Starting with the positives, Howard’s versatility as a shooter is close to unmatched in this class. Brandon Miller, Gradey Dick, and Howard stand out early as the best shooters in the first-round sphere. Jett has a lightning-quick release when he needs it, some of the most fluid and loose hips you’ll see, and is good from either side of the floor. Put him in the corners and there’s a great threat to drill shots when spaced around excellent players.
Howard is tremendous off screens as well, which opens up the entire Michigan playbook. They’ll run elbow sets through Hunter Dickinson (that head coach and proud papa Juwan Howard undoubtedly stole from the Miami Heat) and have Howard zoom up for handoffs into awkward-angle shots. He looks like a good replica of Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson in those actions, quickly aligning himself to the rim after zipping up the gut of the court. He’s really good off wide pindowns, both at scoring and at feeling if he draws extra attention and creating for others (more on that later).
Michigan’s offense under Juwan has always been based on spreading the floor, playing through a ton of strategic dribble handoffs (good friend Jordan Sperber did an awesome video breaking down how the Zoom action has taken over college basketball) and second-side ball screens. Two years ago, we noticed that Coach Howard routinely put his best playmaker, Franz Wagner, in the left offensive corner so that Wagner could come off those screens and handoffs coming to his right.
Back in 2021, we made the mistake of seeing how right-hand dominant Wagner was in those situations and assuming that he was going to struggle using his left to create. Franz has fairly quickly proved us wrong, and that he’s a really versatile player on offense. We’re trying not to fall into the same trap again with Jett; just because the Wolverines prefer that he goes right and scheme him to do so does not necessarily mean he cannot use his left.
To confirm any of our hunches about his off-hand, we have started to pay attention to a little more detail. First, whenever he comes left off a ball screen, he’s trying to pass more than to score, looking for pocket passes to bigs and coming off too slowly to put any pressure on the basket. Second, his touch around the rim when he does use his left is subpar, and he often tries to use his right hand when on the left side.
It’s too early to be able to tell if Jett’s left will be an inhibitor to true offensive versatility in the NBA or if he’ll continue to need actions tailor-made to get him to his right. What’s worrisome is that, unlike Franz, Jett doesn’t seem to have much of an ability to separate without those staggered screens and running starts. His handle has some flashes to it, but any bit of space he creates from it turns into pull-up jumpers or runners. Having only 15 half-court rim attempts in 18 games is an alarmingly low rate that raises a giant red flag — especially considering how much of Michigan’s offense is designed around getting him separation.
To Jett’s credit, he is a really good passer when going to his right. He has six games with four or more assists, he makes accurate reads to diagnose help defenders when handling a second-side pick-and-roll attempt, and he is excellent at understanding how he’s being defended as a shooter. If he draws two when coming off a screen, he’s quick to get rid of the rock. If he gets into the lane, he feels weak-side rotations and knows where to pass to.
So much of Howard’s passing is brought on by the fact he starts from an advantage on the move. In space, Jett does very little to separate from his man. He badly needs strength, especially in his lower body, and his wide handle sends him a little to east-west when playing in the middle third of the floor. There are also too many games when Howard isn’t creating for others, and the Wolverines’ offense stalls out as a result. They’re 2-3 when he has one or fewer dimes.
Howard isn’t a pure creator by any means. He prefers to score first, and the limitations with his left hand handicap how successfully he could attack various defenses and defenders in space. There are also small bugaboos in his game that aren’t typical for your incredibly high-feel offensive player. For one, Jett is a really poor post entry passer. He forces ones when the post isn’t open, misses the show hand target from his teammate, and will be so wildly inaccurate that his lobbing entries will hit the rim or the side of the backboard. Post entry passing isn’t as important in the league as it used to be, but it shows that there is still work to do with Jett in several simple areas.
One thing I do appreciate about Howard is his ability to get straight to the rim when the lane is open to do so. He likes to split pick-and-rolls when hedge defenders are aggressive, and he can often get his hips aligned straight to the hoop in a way that forces help defenders to collapse. We call that second-step quickness; his first step gets separation from his man/ the action, and the second gets him aligned very quickly downhill. It’s a trait that often is associated with players who are high-volume PNR creators or good athletes/ finishers, and every time Jett has utilized it this year, it’s turned into a kickout attempt for a spot-up shooter that Jett willingly makes.
Defense
We cannot go any further without diving into the defense, though. We alluded to it earlier, with just how many issues Howard has being a frequent target for opponents. A player identified as a weak link and target on a college court is almost certain to receive the same treatment in the pros.
When evaluating college defenders, there are a few initial checklist items we are searching for:
What position(s) can he guard effectively? What about types of offensive players?
Is he a decent athlete?
Does he want to be physical/ have the ability to use his frame with contact?
How are his off-ball habits?
Going in reverse order from the list, Howard’s off-ball habits have not been so dreadful that they are noteworthy or leave his teammates out to dry. We get the sense he’s very aware of where to be, he just doesn’t always have the burst to cover ground in a way that makes up for the mistakes of others or prevents him from falling out of position against good offense.
The lack of physicality is pretty glaring, though. Howard tries to throw his hands up and be long against drivers, though he rarely uses his chest to bump them. He stands up immediately when contact comes on screens, and he’s helpless to swim around against bigs off of switches. Bigger wings have enjoyed mismatch posting him, and it seemed like Iowa made a point of trying to do that whenever Howard was on Kris Murray.
We don’t think Howard is a very good athlete, which limits the types of positions he can guard. While 6’8”, point-of-attack defense doesn’t feel impactful. Playing him against smaller point guards will lead to constant blow-bys and place him in a position where he’s guarding ball screens (his targeted weakness) a lot. Bigger wings will be a struggle due to their physicality.
Instead of trying to figure out what position Howard guards on defense (1s, 2s, 3s, etc.), we do feel like there is a certain type of player Jett can have success against: shooters. Jett is very smart and knows how to use screens as a shooter on offense. Tapping into that IQ and creativity could make him the right foil for a movement threat.
In these areas, his length (which often helps him contest from behind if he is beat) is an advantage, and his success will not be crushed if he has to chase a guy off the line and isn’t quick enough to fully recover on the drive. His job will be done effectively simply by chasing off the line. While I think Howard too often gets praised for contesting from behind when it’s preferable to stay in front and not have to do so, it is a nice recovery tool that can bail him out against other non-explosive drivers.
Overall
There’s a lot of season left, and the Big Ten offers countless physical challenges for Howard, some of the smartest coaches in the country, and tough opponents every night. While there have been some outstanding nights (34 PTS on 7-13 3FG against Iowa), there have been some tough ones too (13 PTS on 4-14 FG, 3-12 3FG, and 0 AST with 4 TOs against Maryland). Jett has to consistently find ways to help the Wolverines beyond scoring; he’s a good passer, but he disappears there far too often. He doesn’t offer much on defense, and he isn’t a good rebounder despite being 6’8”.
With the right system or team drafting, he could sneak into the back part of the top-ten. But the simple athletic limitations are a big barrier for us putting him into that range at this point.
We have a lot of areas we want to see Jett improve over the second half of the season to entrench him in the lottery discussion, or to work on before he enters the NBA to maximize his early-career impact:
Increase rim attempts and frequency, especially when coming off screens to his right. Play at a deliberate pace & initiate contact with interior defenders using his shoulders.
Tighten his handle with his left, and add touch finishing with his left.
Compete on the defensive end with NBA-caliber athletes in space. Stay in a stance longer, use his chest against drivers.
Continue to get stronger, especially with his core and lower half. Strength to his legs will help with vertical explosion, and core strength will help him avoid post mismatches on defense.