Mo Bamba Throwback Scouting Report
Applying some of the lessons we've learned from our biggest scouting miss
"Those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them."
For scouts, looking at their past evaluations is an essential practice. Prospect grading is a combination of art, science, research, and luck. The luck aspect can always factor in, where externalities or unforeseen developments derail or stymie a player's growth. Still, relying on luck is bad practice, especially when trying to come up with guidelines for how to engage in the science and research aspect. You either win or you learn, so let's look back and learn.
Just as the political winds shift every four-to-eight years, the basketball landscape does as well. Innovations, new stylistic trends and dynastic teams merit a change to team building so that a franchise can stay ahead of the curve. Sometimes that means evaluating a prospect just as the curve is changing, anticipating what the next paradigm-altering techniques are so that no you can be the first team to fully embrace it.
Other times, the opposite occurs. A great player gets left behind on the trend, drafted for the skills they possess while quickly falling back from the pack as those traits become outdated.
Mo Bamba is my biggest scouting failure of the six years I have been scouting NBA prospects. The strikeout on my end is due, largely, to the changing trends of the league. In 2018, when Bamba was due to be drafted, he stood atop my draft boards, one spot ahead of Luke Doncic and two of Trae Young. The evaluations of the others were consistent: both would be multi-time All-Stars and foundational pieces for their franchise.
Bamba, my argument went, would be just as foundational and impactful. He was a 7'1" shot blocker with a nearly 7'10" wingspan. He swatted 3.7 shots a game, made 14 treys, shot over 60% inside the line and had a double-double in half of his outings. He looked dominant defensively while possessing a tantalizing trait on offense with his shooting. He would be Rudy Gobert, 2018 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, with a jump shot.
While Bamba hasn’t been an All-Star or even a consistent starter in the league, it still feels strange to call him a bust. The issue was with my strong mischaracterization of how valuable the role he’d fill really is.
The game shifted away from one-dimensional rim protectors rather quickly; defensive versatility is en vogue from bigs as much as their anchoring dominance. Gobert struggled in series against the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers or Denver Nuggets, two innovative offensive groups, despite being a First-Team All-Defense selection. He’s now in Minnesota and the Timberwolves are not as successful as many thought, due in large part to the struggles that incorporating Gobert can have on an offense.
Big men worth high picks in today's draft landscape need to be mobile on defense and skilled enough to play a versatile role on offense. There was no way anyone scouting Bamba at Texas would have seen him and said "switchable upside" or "would be fine guarding a team that plays five guards", and definitely no chance of seeing him as an “offensive hub” or “high-volume scorer.”
Bamba's attempts to tailor his offensive game to the NBA have seen tradeoffs in where his production comes from. His scoring and rebounding numbers dip (particularly offensive rebounding) as he spends more time on the perimeter. The increases have come from more consistent 3-point shooting (though not enough to make him elite) and better assist-turnover numbers.
But the biggest issue has been the lack of synergy between one of his pre-draft strengths (finishing) and improvement areas (offensive polish). One would have to give throughout the process, and we mistakenly thought that a young player would simply keep improving, therefore the polish would arrive.
It hasn’t.
While at Texas, Bamba was a very average post-up threat. Like most freshman bigs with insane size, he wasn't well-built. The frame was a concern in that it might take time for him to gain weight and strength for the pros. His high center of gravity and thin legs allowed him to get pushed off spots and ridden underneath when he'd try to engage in a post move. Defenders would successfully (and legally) get into his legs and for him to rely on hook shots or face-up moves.
The lack of a left hand on post-up finishes was also evident. Bamba wasn't comfortable going to both shoulders. He didn't have many counter moves for when forced to go left. The assertion that he was long enough to get shots off anyway was reliant on his touch being excellent; it’s proven not to be the case.
Because Bamba is so tall, many of his hook shots come from a position near-level to the rim. He elevates on his release and holds the ball so high that touch is a hard thing to find at that altitude. Think of why big men can often struggle from the free throw line. Their hands are large, so slight movements to their fingers (in particular thumb) can change the ball's trajectory. In addition, they tend to lose the soft bounce gained by the arc on the shot; their starting point is too high to rainbow it up.
Many of Bamba's misses with the Magic have been similarly problematic and were somewhat overlooked by my evaluation. Even though he's larger and has size advantages, he gets pushed far out and off-balance on his post-up attempts.
As a finisher, Bamba converted 74.5 percent of his non post-up shots at the rim. That's not only an absurd rate, but it came on over 100 attempts. His crashing of the offensive glass, where he got roughly 30 percent of his points from, had a lot to do with that. While we knew modern NBA usage would drag those numbers down, he was only at 58 percent at the rim this year.
More fascinating is the work done on pick-and-roll finishing. Bamba had subpar hands when trying to collect pocket passes. He wasn't an inefficient finisher by any means, but if a pass wasn't thrown above his waist, he'd struggle to catch it. His footwork was solid, he could gather himself for a finish and wasn't given clean looks every time at the basket, requiring more than just his elite length to get a bucket.
Ball screens weren't frequent in the offense at Texas. Bamba set many alley screens in Horns actions, which frequently led him to pick-and-pop to the top of the key. He was only 4-for-20 on pick and pop treys -- a poor number and perhaps a little overambitious to look at and expect high-caliber 3-point shooting. The theory was, even though Bamba wasn't making a ton, the mechanics were great and his comfort on the perimeter was half the battle. Many of his misses barely rattled in-and-out. If two of his four rattlers fall, he's at 30 percent, and this is a non-issue. Projecting him as a strong shooter wasn't a mistake. He's still very good for someone his size.
The biggest area I overlooked wasn't his lack of pick-and-pop shooting and putting so much stock in that number rising to an elite level. It was not being concerned by the lack of finishing volume as a roller, not a popper, after setting a screen.
Bamba's usage at Texas appeared to be pop-heavy because of what I believed was his elite strength as a pick-and-pop 5 and the juggernaut element it added to the team's offense. Instead, retrospect appears to show that the reason Texas kept him away from there was because it was not a strength. Bamba's finishing at the rim off the pick-and-roll was 42.3 percent (11-26), league-worst among players with at least 20 attempts.
A lot of those same issues at Texas, though demonstrate in only minor ways, propped up in Orlando. He's not really strong with his takeoff when catching off pocket passes -- his base and center of gravity don't lend themselves well to explosion when he needs to lower his shoulder for a catch. He still hasn't added the strength needed to bounce off and handle contact from bigs, further limiting his explosion. Some shots get blocked as a result of both, and his adjustment has been to rely more on fadeaways and touch than gathering off a square foundation and powering through.
These were some issues he still had a few years ago:
Offensively, this remains the largest handicap towards Bamba taking the next step. He can continue to improve his 3-point shooting (he’s at 33.3% so far this year) to a level that makes it a really strong threat. His finishing and strength have to keep getting better; the lack of core and lower-body strength hasn’t been solved in a meaningful way.
As for the defense, Bamba has been predictably lacking versatility in the NBA. He’s a Drop coverage big who uses his 7’10” wingspan to alter shots near the rim. That lack of versatility or even perfection of his angles presents some challenges against smart guards or well-prepared teams. There are certain matchups that simply aren’t good ones for Bamba, thus limiting his minutes and role.
Watch enough Bamba possessions and you'll see a recurring theme: he defends well initially, but his man is a constant offensive rebounding threat. He's not quite quick-twitch enough to fulfill both roles, patrolling the paint to contest a shot and negating his man. Funneling everything toward him doesn’t yield the same results you’d hope.
Here's the silliest part of looking back at my rankings. A large part of the reason Bamba ended up being number one was that I wanted him to be a 3-point shooting Rudy Gobert. I wanted to see that in the league, so I believed he was the chance to be it and couldn't remove my fixation from that potential. It was less about how likely he was to be that and more about "holy shit if he can actually become it, it’s over." More consideration should have been given to how difficult that path would be and, if he didn't get there, what type of impact he would have. I stand by saying Bamba was a top-seven guy in that draft based on his upside (potentially top five), but I definitely jumped the gun on the ideas of promise vs. production and novel vs. good.
The personality traits were there. I remember seeing Bamba on AAU and summer circuits flash amazing ball handling potential. He was massive, well-spoken, and kind, had gushing personality reviews and played for an NBA factory at Westtown. You can hear all the cries about "all NBA players have amazing skills that don't translate", but until you see in person what an NBA guy can do against amateur competitions and walk yourself off that cliff, you can think to yourself that this particular guy's skill is so good that he'll show it. You can heed many warnings about "not falling in love with the person over the player", but until you get burned by it, you can't help it.
Lesson learned.