Mock Draft 1.1: Post-Thanksgiving Update
Based on early-season performances, who are the risers and fallers on draft boards thus far?
It’s early.
The refrain is simple and effective. The college basketball season is around one-sixth of the way done, and the majority of high-major teams have played at least three or four games against cushy competition. Plenty can and will change between now and the end of March, and then much more before the end of the draft cycle.
Still, we’re finally at the point where we have seen everyone play that is healthy enough to do so, giving us initial feedback on where they stand in the pecking order and whose production places them in the first-round discussion.
Based on those early returns, conversations we’ve had with a few other scouts, and our own observations and evaluations, here is our post-Thanksgiving mock draft update.
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1. Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92
No surprise at the top here, as Victor Wembanyama has been insanely productive to start the year and is helping Metropolitans win games. He’s the most unique prospect of my lifetime and should have an impact on both ends of the floor in a franchise-changing way. At 7’4” with a reported 8’0” wingspan, the biggest drawbacks to Wembanyama’s draft stock are in regard to durability for a player of his size. To us, that speaks volumes about just how impactful his on-court play really is and makes him worth any injury risk.
2. Scoot Henderson, G-League Ignite
Scoot had one major flaw coming into this season: shooting range to 3, particularly off pull-up jumpers. He seems to have smoothed out his shooting and is well over 40% from 3 to start the season. Time will tell if that number remains in elite territory, but his jumper is at least functional enough to no longer be a liability. He’s the ideal pick-and-roll engine at 6’3”, combining elite passing feel with three-level scoring and the athletic burst to create separation from anyone. He’s a tremendous prospect in his own right and would be in contention for the top pick in almost any other draft class.
3. Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
Thompson’s athletic tools have always been the most appealing part of his arsenal. He’s 6’7” with the fastest first step I’ve ever seen on the basketball court and an insane vertical to pair with it. There’s more skill than is found in most athletes, though, and that intersection is what propels Thompson inside a clear-cut top-three in this class. He’s got great touch and craft as a finisher, changes speeds well, has a decent handle, and is one of the better processors of the game as a passer. The jump shot is still a concern in general, but his tools are good enough to carve out a primary option role without it.
4. Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Whitmore hasn’t played a minute yet for Villanova, out with an injury suffered during the preseason. His athletic tools are off the charts, as he combines strong-bodied athleticism with elite vertical pop. There’s a positionless element to Whitmore’s game, though defensively he’s likely best guarding 3s and 4s. The development of his offensive skillset in the half-court over the last 18 months is notable, including a consistent jumper he showed off in international competition this summer. If that trajectory holds, Whitmore will be one of the top college prospects in the class.
5. Keyonte George, Baylor
George has been an impactful blend of scoring and playmaking to start the year for the Baylor Bears. George’s shooting allows him to play on-ball or off-ball, and his pick-and-roll passing is vastly underrated. While his first step leaves a little to be desired, he’s been able to string together some really impressive outings and adjust to physical competition. There’s still work to be done to cement his spot here, but George is a natural scorer and tough shot-maker.
6. Nick Smith, Arkansas
Another college stud who hasn’t played a moment yet, Smith is a gifted scorer with a silky smooth jump shot. We value Smith’s ability to play on-ball and off-ball, making him the ideal secondary creator in an offense and a movement shooting threat to play off of another star. He’s got a thin frame right now and might be more mid-range than at the rim, but he features a creative element to his scoring arsenal that cannot be taught.
7. Brandon Miller, Alabama
At 6’8”, Miller’s size and shooting ability should be seamless in their translation to the NBA. A big wing who likes to handle and initiate, he had the reputation coming into Alabama as a mid-range isolation scorer. Out of the gates, Miller has been sniping from deep and showing his confidence as a shooter. He’s got some real limitations as a driver and finisher due to subpar vertical athleticism and a mundane first step, but he’s productive and efficient regardless.
8. GG Jackson, South Carolina
Jackson has impressed me a great deal to start the season for the Gamecocks. The youngest prospect in the draft class, Jackson reclassified to join South Carolina this year. He played more like a finishing 6’9” forward in high school. Thus far, he’s flashed a greatly improved handle, confidence to attack the basket, and even a self-creation jump shot that looks smooth. SEC play will be revealing of his level of play against high-caliber athletes and competition, and if he holds up there with efficiency, the back-half of the lottery might seem pretty low.
9. Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite
Ausar is a special passer and a really good athlete. His lack of a jump shot has always been a red flag on his resume, particularly because he isn’t as skilled of a self-creator in terms of rim attempts in the half-court as his twin brother Amen. That said, he’s taking mid-range pull-ups more often, has shown just how smart of a cutter and secondary playmaker he is, and defends at a high level. He should be a lottery pick at the very least.
10. Dariq Whitehead, Duke
After suffering an injury to his foot this summer, Whitehead has slowly been reintegrated into the lineup for the Blue Devils. He hasn’t looked fully like himself, dropping him down to the later part of the lottery on our board after starting the cycle as our top college prospect. Whitehead is a 6’6” scorer with three-level potential. He doesn’t seem to be fully in shape or utilized by the Duke offense in a way that best accentuates his strengths. Whitehead has a ton of intangibles and is not a guy we’d bet against. The start hasn’t been great at Duke, but a talent like him gets the benefit of the doubt this early in the year.
11. Cason Wallace, Kentucky
Wallace plays like a multi-year pro with his defensive acumen and high-IQ rotations. He’s intense on-ball and can really get into opponents, guarding 1s and 2s at an extremely high level. The offense is solid with Wallace, more of a catch-and-shoot off-guard than a pure creator, but his runner is consistent enough to give him an option when attacking the hoop.
12. Anthony Black, Arkansas
Black has turned it on of late, scoring at a high level and attacking the rim with confidence. The shot is still really inconsistent and needs some mechanical tweaks, but he’s a 6’7” lead guard with great playmaking skills, pressuring on-ball defense, and really good touch around the hoop. If Black can keep up his scoring ways and getting to the rim in straight lines, he’ll be a really good NBA prospect.
13. Dereck Lively, Duke
Lively has gotten off to a tough start at Duke, showing just how difficult it is to be a big man defender in today’s college game. Lively gets in foul trouble and doesn’t do a good job positionally yet, but we still believe his game will translate better to the NBA level. He’s a good pick-and-roll finisher when playing within a spaced system and does have upside to be switchable long-term. There’s real upside here despite him not showing it yet.
14. Kel’El Ware, Oregon
Ware’s shooting ability has been on display for the Ducks thus far, and he shows so much intrigue as a 7’0” floor-spacer. Ware does have upside in traditional ways for a big man, protecting the rim and finishing near the hoop off others. He’s playing consistently to start the year, important after showing some moments of floating in AAU and international competition. There’s so much upside here; he’s definitely a lottery-caliber talent with his high ceiling.
15. Terquavion Smith, NC State
Smith is a professional scorer, drilling shots from deep range and creating space with his quick movement ability off the bounce. He’s a good off-ball shooter and at 6’4” can finish with length. Terquavion has improved his finishing to start the season from an efficiency standpoint, one complaint about his freshman campaign. His game translates well to being a good backup scoring guard, and that doesn’t feel like a reach just outside the lottery.
16. Jarace Walker, Houston
Walker checks boxes physically as a hybrid 4 and 5. He has a thick frame to bang down low but can move his feet laterally and guard a bit in space. He’s developing a jump shot to play as a pick-and-pop guy or a corner spacer, and he’s a decent passer within the structure of an offense. He won’t ever be a big scorer, but the complementary nature of his game and defensive versatility is appealing.
17. Kris Murray, Iowa
Murray strikes me as a low-risk 3-and-D prospect. His stroke is consistent and he plays well off others, making very few mistakes. He’s starting to get to the basket and convert at a high level, but there isn’t a ton of shake or wiggle to put pressure on the rim against a set defense. We believe Murray will be a solid defender at the next level, too. Just a very sturdy wing.
18. Gradey Dick, Kansas
After a sensational performance against NC State during Feast Week, Dick is an undeniable first-round prospect as a big shooting wing. He’s great on movement, consistent from deep range and has pristine form. There are real defensive concerns, and he’s gotten picked on in high doses. That said, he’s a smart cutter and moves without the ball when defenses start to overplay him. He’s a solid role player with a clear-cut strength.
19. Kyle Filipowski, Duke
Filipowski has arguably been Duke’s best player this year and is increasing his draft stock as a result. He’s a big forward who can stretch defenses out to 3, attack off the bounce, and is very fearless in the way he plays. We see him more as a trailing pick-and-pop guy at the next level, though his confidence in driving to the hoop is noteworthy for teams looking to have some playmaking in their frontcourt. His competitive genes are off the charts.
20. Baba Miller, Florida State
Miller hasn’t played yet due to NCAA suspension, but we’re still incredibly high on his raw tools. There’s a chance Miller, who should return to action in January, isn’t ready to be a one-and-done this year. That said, very few players come along with his natural gifts and skills: 6’11”, fluid handle, shooting upside, defensive mobility, and face-up attacking. Even if it takes Baba a few years to harness those tools, he’s a guy we’d have a difficult time passing one in this range.
21. Judah Mintz, Syracuse
Mintz is a funky player with a unique style of play. He’s a really good passer and finishes well near the rim, and at 6’4” he’s got the ability to bully smaller guards. He loves the mid-range pull-up, and while the 3-point shot hasn’t been a consistent part of his arsenal yet, he’s got a solid enough jumper to project forward. He’s a big guard with an effective game despite not being the world’s greatest athlete. We’re enamored with his unique feel for the game and how productive he is.
22. DaRon Holmes, Dayton
Holmes is a toolsy sophomore big who could be deployed in multiple types of defensive coverages. We expect Holmes to be a Drop coverage big at his best, but with some switching upside or playing at the level as realistic possibilities, he’s a versatile enough piece to contribute across the board. Offensively, screen-and-roll is where he thrives, though there is some latent playmaking skills within the flow of an NBA offense to be explored.
23. Tyrese Proctor, Duke
Proctor is another big guard with somewhat questionable shooting. His jumper is getting better, and a full season’s worth of data will truly determine just how far away he is from becoming a reliable option. The playmaking IQ is off the charts, making him one of the only high-feel guards in this class. His first step and finishing ability must improve; he can really disappear as a scorer for stretches. Most teams want to give chances to high-feel guards with positional size, so Proctor should get plenty of opportunities to prove he’s a true one-and-done.
24. Nikola Djurisic, Mega
Djurisic looks the part of a specialty wing shooter and potential connector piece. He has pristine form from deep, can hit a pull-up, and is a smart playmaker for others. His athleticism leaves a bit to be desired and the defensive end may be a struggle for him. If he shoots the ball consistently this year, something he didn’t do last year, there will be enough intriguing offensive firepower to consider him in the first round.
25. Jett Howard, Michigan
Howard has been great to start the season, drilling shots from deep as a spot-up or movement shooter. He’s got good positional size on the wing at 6’7” and even some secondary playmaking chops. The defense is a mess and will likely always be a bit of an issue, but if Howard can consistently drill shots, his size and play style will allow him to blend in as a specialist in the NBA.
26. Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut
Hawkins is turning into one of the better shooters in college basketball. He’s athletic at 6’5” and can put pressure on the rim when run off the line, but the bread and butter of his game is from a catch-and-shoot standpoint. He’ll get them up at a high volume this year for the Huskies. We believe in Hawkins as a defender; he should be able to guard 1 thru 3 effectively. A good off-ball guard prospect.
27. Jalen Wilson, Kansas
Wilson has completely transformed his game this year, stepping into the role of lead offensive cog of the Jayhawks’ engine. Wilson is hitting pull-ups, showing some craft as a scorer out of ball screens, and knocking down shots from the perimeter. He’s too skilled to be ignored as a first-round prospect, though the scalability of his game to the next level as a 6’7” wing/ forward will always depend on his consistency as a spot-up shooter.
28. Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Sensabaugh has been terrific for the Buckeyes on a per-minute basis. A big wing with a strong body, Brice combines physical driving and finishing with creative step-backs and tough shot-making. The full season will reveal how sustainable his scoring metrics are right now, but there’s a good chance he’s one of the best scorers in college basketball by the end of the season.
29. Sidy Cissoko, G-League Ignite
Cissoko played more like a slashing point forward over in Europe last year, so the transition to the higher level of competition with the G-League Ignite was always going to be fascinating. Cissoko has transitioned well thanks to the effective nature of his spot-up jumper. He puts pressure on the rim as a cutter or driver, and we know there’s playmaking potential that’ll not get displayed this year because he’s playing off-ball next to Scoot Henderson. Lots of intriguing skills for Cissoko.
30. Emoni Bates, Eastern Michigan
Bates is a tough shot-maker who has the ultimate green light and is one of the most fun players to watch. Still only 18 years old, Bates has immense potential as a scorer, limited only by his lack of first step. He’s a tough shot-maker who is reliant on making tough ones to score; there is very few that’s easy coming his way. At his age and with his shooting touch, a four-year investment may be wiser for a patient team, moving him up into receiving legitimate first-round attention.
2nd Round
31. Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
32. Julian Strawther, Gonzaga
33. JJ Starling, Notre Dame
34. Coleman Hawkins, Illinois
35. Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois
36. Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
37. Adem Bona, UCLA
38. Marcus Sasser, Houston
39. Tucker Devries, Drake
40. Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
41. Trey Alexander, Creighton
42. Ricky Council IV, Arkansas
43. Mike Miles Jr., TCU
44. Drew Timme, Gonzaga
45. Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
46. Kevin McCullar, Kansas
47. Colin Castleton, Florida
48. Harrison Ingram, Stanford
49. Tyrese Hunter, Texas
50. Will Richard, Florida
51. Jaylen Clark, UCLA
52. James Nnaji, Barcelona
53. Reece Beekman, Virginia
54. Rayan Rupert, NZ Breakers
55. Caleb Love, North Carolina
56. Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite
57. Colby Jones, Xavier
58. Leonardo Okeke, Monferrato
59. Adam Flagler, Baylor
60. Arthur Kaluma, Creighton
Ten Best Returning Prospects
Dillon Mitchell, Texas
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Terrence Arceneaux, Houston
Taylor Hendricks, UCF
Julian Phillips, Tennessee
Tre White, USC
Jordan Walsh, Arkansas
Malik Reneau, Indiana
Mark Mitchell, Duke
Chris Livingston, Kentucky