Mouhamed Gueye, Tristan Vukcevic, & Hunter Tyson: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Reports
Three players with shooting upside in some form who are second round draft candidates. Will the defense hold up for them to stick around in the league?
Now that we’re in the late part of the draft cycle, I’m going to start to transition to shorter scouting report videos. Every player in this draft who is in my top 40 already has a video done in full length. With these prospects who I have outside of my top 40 (and therefore project more as G-League guys, even if they get drafted), I’ll do shorter videos — and hopefully more of them!
To keep up with the rest of the prospects (and to try to not clutter your inbox with multiple posts a day), I’m going to be sending out some combo platters: two prospects at the same time with less depth but some to-the-point analysis on each. The idea is to group these prospects together based on some overlap or comparison point.
Today’s edition goes and looks at the stretch-shooting players, the frontcourt guys who will spend most of their time spacing to the 3-point line — or at least have the upside to do so. Within this group we have Hunter Tyson, the big wing shooting specialist who has opened eyes with his consistency off screens. There’s also Tristan Vukcevic, a really polished 3-point threat and one of the top international names in this draft class. Finally, Washington State center Mouhamed Gueye has rare fluidity and perimeter skills for a big. If he can become a consistent shooter, he’s going to be a unique second-round bet for an NBA team.
Mouhamed Gueye - P, Washington State
At only 20 years old, Mouhamed Gueye is a really fascinating flier in the second round. He’s absolutely massive, shows some real fluidity for a guy his size, and isn’t the least skilled big you’ll find. He shows comfort taking jump shots, even if he’s not making them at an even respectable clip. According to his Synergy logs, Gueye was 11-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range and 12-39 (30.7%). Those are both really, really low numbers for a prospect.
Especially for a prospect whose upside is predicated on a lot of his perimeter ability. Gueye stands out as being different than other bigs because of his comfort level operating on the perimeter and the natural movement skills he possesses. The comparative advantage for him long-term isn’t at the basket or inside of 12 feet, it’s outside that range. He needs to find a way to become a better shooter, a more consistent perimeter defender, and a more competent decision-maker if he’s going to make it in the NBA.
With so many raw traits, Gueye is bound to latch on somewhere and be a developmental project. In the NBA’s current landscape, where size and skill are coveted and stretch-shooting bigs provide immense two-way value if they can stay on the floor, he’s the ideal flier to take for a team that can be patient and invest in his development.
That’s a surprisingly big ‘if’, however. The changes coming to the CBA indicate an increased value in getting some form of production out of second-round picks, as cost-controlled contracts are the most team-friendly asset a team can snag. I can see more teams prioritizing those ready-to-play guys in the second round as a result. On the flip side, a third two-way spot can create extra incentive for teams to take on the long-term developmental player.
Gueye doesn’t really have a fair comparison point in the NBA. He’s his own unique player who flashes some rim protection traits, a little bit of handling in straight lines, and a very underdeveloped understanding of the game. But the theory of how you’d draft him is important to unpack, and it’s one that my Game Theory Podcast co-host Sam Vecenie and I generally disagree on.
Vecenie has always been weary of second-round players who need a lot of time in order to develop. I understand why: by the time that development work is done to turn them into an NBA player, they’re ready to hit free agency. The appeal of a cost-controlled contract is gone at that point, and you’re paying for a guy who is somewhat unproven in terms of how impactful he is within a rotation. It’s part of why Vecenie was lower on Florida State big man John Butler a year ago.
I tend to believe that the whole point of a mid-to-late 2nd round pick is to take that type of swing. With little expectation of picks in that range turning into rotation players, why not take the chance on the most unique or high-ceiling player out there? So much of that will depend on team situation (competing vs. rebuilding, salary costs, small market, etc.), but I get the idea of swinging on a guy like Gueye in that range.
Gueye checks in at #58 on my board, making him certainly draftable but not a guy worth too high of a reach for. In comparison to other bigs, he’s behind the likes of Colin Castleton or Tristan Vukcevic, but ahead of Adama Sanogo or Charles Bediako. Gueye is incredibly unique and very fascinating. He’s a raw prospect, but the comfort he’s shown operating in skilled areas is intriguing enough to buy low on.
Tristan Vukcevic - F, Partizan
Seven-footers who can shoot with deep range and consistent mechanics are always coveted. What Tristan Vukcevic has shown year after year as a shooter makes him one of the most reliable, young frontcourt shooters in recent memory. He’s shot over 35% from 3 each of the last three seasons while being a teenager playing in professional leagues in Europe. Vukcevic, the son of a former Euroleague star, has been a highly-touted prospect for some time. To see the numbers match the hype is always encouraging.