NBA Draft Combine Recap: Winners, Losers, Advice and More
We look at the standout performances from a long, busy week in Chicago
The NBA’s week-long journey to Chicago is now in the rearview mirror. The Combine — which, by the way, isn’t as useful for scouting purposes as you might think — brings a ton of value to NBA teams for the buzz, chatter and access to prospects in interview settings. The public-facing part of the process… not so valuable.
Alas, we only have that and whatever other rumors have made their way to us that we can report on. So, in the spirit of evaluating the risers and fallers from the Combine process, let’s dive right into the takeaways from a long week in Chicago.
A wise orator once taught me that all good things, talking points and memorable tidbits come in threes. So… we’ll give you three of each category to breakdown from the NBA and G-League prospect events.
3 Winners of Measurements & Athletic Testing
Mark Williams, Duke - Every year, there’s one measurement or testing number from the combine that just makes our jaw drop. This year, that designation belongs to Mark Williams, the big man from Duke who measured an insane 9’9” standing reach. That’s right, he’s literally three inches away from touching rim when he stands underneath the hoop and puts his arms straight up.
The big thing to remember with measurements and testing is to place them into the question of “will this be functional to how the prospect plays?” For Williams as a big man, that’s the definition of functional. Rim protection on defense, lob catching and finishing on offense… all of it is impressive on film, and is backed up with an historic measurement with one of the top standing reaches in combine history.
Jalen Williams, Santa Clara - Be forewarned: this will not be the last time in this article you read about Williams. He measured INCREDIBLY well, starting out the buzz for what turned into an impactful week for him. He measured just short of 6’6” in shoes with an absurd 7’2” wingspan, the best differential in this class. His three-quarter sprint and standing vertical were both in the 90th percentile or above, and as USA Today’s Bryan Kalbrosky shared, the only guy to hit both with that good of a wingspan was freak athlete Donovan Mitchell. His max vert was higher than the likes of Aaron Gordon or John Collins. Just a huge measurement win for Williams.
Christian Braun, Kansas - Where this notion came from that Braun isn’t a great athlete, I’ll never know. Perhaps there’s an element of race at play, but our hypothesisis that Braun makes everything look so easy that he appears less athletic than he actually is.
The 40” vertical he logged this week is proof that he can really get up. While we’re talking about his measurements here, the combination of positive athletic testing numbers with his competitiveness and solid play in scrimmages should lock him in as a first-round pick. The athletic numbers should be good enough to make up for poor length measurements, even.
3 Intriguing Prospects with Mixed Reviews
Trevion Williams, Purdue - The upside and appeal of Williams is massive, quite literally. While he’s shed weight, he’s still a slightly undersized 5-man without great rim protection traits, lacking elite athleticism and featuring a limited jumper. He shot well during drills, but also had a putrid performance from the field in scrimmage #2.
The upside sits with his playmaking. He’s far more creative than any big we’ve seen come through the combine in years — the best playstyle comparison for him might be Alperen Sengun. Williams likely did enough to earn himself a draft selection, though the range of those picks remains wide thanks to the strange fit of his game and body in the NBA.
Gabriele Procida, Fortitudo Bologna - More athletic than most 3-and-D wings, Procida has a ton of upside. He’s one of the top international prospects in the class, and one really good day in a workout was enough to get scouts talking. Teams love taking international guys in the 25-35 range, and Procida may have played himself into that territory.
There are still questions. His athleticism pops, but does it pop in game action in the half-court? His shooting appears solid, but how real is his self-creation ability? When will he want to come over and how long will teams want to wait before rostering him? The answers to those questions will dictate whether he’s on the first-round or second-round side of that equation, but we believe he helped himself this week enough to at least deserve looks in the late-first.
Dereon Seabron, NC State - Seabron was one of the most productive players in 5v5 play. He’s long, lean and a walking paint touch. Put the ball in his hands and, whenever he wants to get downhill, he can. There’s still shooting and decision-making points to clean up, but the raw traits are enticing.
The question is: how enticing? Is he a first-round guy with those tools? That seems like a stretch, but after watching him play, crazier things have happened. Is he even a guy all teams could pass on and bank on getting in the undrafted pool? Perhaps. Of all the prospects who played well and helped themselves in Chicago, Seabron may still have the widest range of outcomes on draft night.
3 Guys Who Should Stay In the Draft
Terquavion Smith, NC State - Smith turned heads with his livewire scoring, shooting performances and joyous nature. Terquavion was truly a casualty of COVID, playing in a rural area where many major programs could not see the progression he made to become an elite scorer. Smith was that for the Wolfpack this year, even if their record didn’t show it and the spotlight wasn’t shined on him for much of the year.
Smith could return to school and become a more certain lottery pick next year. But 2023 has a much deeper class, and with the positive buzz created at the combine, he’s pretty much got to stay in and take the top-20 that seems likely for him. A really good week for Smith, so it’s time to capitalize.
Dalen Terry, Arizona - Terry chose not to play in 5v5 scrimmaging, instead trying to carry himself like a certain first-round pick. Terry still has the option to return to Arizona, so this week was very exploratory. Teams should come away from Chicago feeling much more comfortable with Terry’s jumper: he shot it well in a workout setting. Most importantly, he interviewed off the charts. He’s toolsy, a huge guard defender with officially a 7’0” wingspan, and has a game that should pop in the NBA.
Here’s the issue: Terry didn’t play in any scrimmages. Last year, we saw some questionable first-round guys fall a bit on draft night, and the common theme was that they didn’t play. Remember Sharife Cooper, who apparently had an insane workout and shot the crap out of it in front of scouts? He went 45th. Really love Terry’s fit in the modern NBA a lot more than Sharife’s, but it’s hard to feel overwhelmingly confident about a late-first guy who didn’t play.
Trevor Keels, Duke - Speaking of standing ovations in workouts, Trevor Keels got one in front of the scouts he performed for. We mentioned Keels heading into the event as one guy with a ton to gain. He chose not to play in scrimmages (similar to Terry), had an impressive workout and is believed to be a better shooter than the numbers indicate. He’s also on the fence of returning to school.
It’s hard to give Keels advice on what to do, but there is definitely more buzz about him in the late-1st and early-2nd range than there was heading into the combine. We’ll see what that translates to…
3 Guys Who Should Withdraw
Leonard Miller, Fort Erie - The man of mystery at the Combine, Miller looked very clearly not ready for professional basketball. He developed some bad habits by being so much more talented than anyone he played against this year, and his jump shot needs a lot of work to find consistency. There’s so many raw traits to like: size, touch, handling, athleticism. But he isn’t ready.
The best move Miller can make is to head for a power-five conference, develop there and try again next year. He’ll be a pretty clear first-round talent at that point.
Moussa Diabate, Michigan - The upside to Diabate is clear: a switchy, big defender who can also protect the rim. He has great touch with his right hand, too. But Diabate’s offensive game isn’t modern enough for the NBA, explosive enough off the pick-and-roll or skilled enough on the perimeter to make an impact. Michigan is a challenging place to develop those traits, playing next to another big in Hunter Dickinson. But Diabate isn’t really draftable in the top-45 right now, so a retur to Michigan is in his best interest. As good ole’ Jim Ross frequently says, sometimes it’s best to “go away and learn a new hold.”
John Butler, Florida State - Butler played in two scrimmages; he was good in one, subpar in the other. The flashes of size, shooting and defensive impact are clearly there. His body is super far away, he doesn’t really have a specific position to guard right now and physically gets abused against size and strength.
Florida State won’t be a place that adds too much more for him to fix those issues, just another year to keep maturing physically and be ready for the NBA when he gets there. We used to have Butler as a guy who should stay in this draft, but some other late-risers are knocking out the valuable developmental spots in the top-40 that would be enticing for Butler.
3 Guys Squarely on the Fence
Jaylin Williams, Arkansas - Williams really needed a strong week to be able to crack the top-60 on our board, and he didn’t have it. That said, he is on the first-round radar for many scouts and teams due to the high-IQ nature of his defense. He’s long-armed, a great rebounder, mobile enough to switch onto the perimeter, is an unreal charge-taker and a solid shot blocker. All the metrics point to impressive defensive impact.
That said, Williams is a tad small for the 5, and while he’s a good passer he struggles to score it outside of the pick-and-roll. He’s a guy you can run an offense through at the top of the key. Not a major threat to score, though.
Williams is a good player, and there’s some appeal to going back to Arkansas and competing to win a National Championship on a super-talented team. Williams’ draft stock may not change too much between now and then if he’s closer to the range we predict (45-60) than the first-round models he would be aiming for. It will be a very tough decision for Jaylin.
Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown - Mohammed had a pretty good showing this week, playing well in the scrimmages, shooting better than expected and progressing well in the measurement categories. The motor was the major strength of what Mohammed showed, and it got him to the free throw line, a ton of rebounds and loose balls.
Drafting guys who are high-motor glue guys/ role players doesn’t excite many in the first round. Right now, Mohammed’s ceiling should be in the mid-2nd if he comes out this year. To us, he should consider going back to school where he could add a little more offensive polish to his arsenal. If the jumper is legit and he bets on himself, that’s how he turns into a first round prospect. And if he goes back and it doesn’t work out, that same motor and physical prowess that earned him love this year will still be there for his backbone.
Patrick Baldwin Jr., Milwaukee - For months, we’ve been saying that Baldwin should not consider going back to college. The pro game is more well-suited for him, and another disappointing year like the one he had as a freshman would all but derail his NBA future. His best bet was always declaring now and hoping his high school tape and upside gets him in the 20-35 range.
That was before the legendarily poor athletic testing. Baldwin’s vertical numbers are putrid and of grave concern. He’s pretty much just a 4-man, a spot-up threat and needs to be hidden on defense. Baldwin may get such poor feedback from those numbers that his only choice is to go back to school.
3 Biggest Winners of the Combine
Jalen Williams, Santa Clara - With the aforementioned measurements, Williams was immediately the buzz of the combine. He backed up that rising interest with strong play, and finished scrimmage #2 as the best player on the floor in what is arguably the most talented game of the week.
More than just his play, this week is all about buzz: generating and sustaining positive momentum towards the draft. Williams leaves Chicago with a much better understanding of where he stands in NBA team’s minds, and with some buzz about him going in the lottery, it’s likely no other prospect saw this large of an increase in perception after the week.
Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest - That’s right, folks. Buzz is what matters. Jake LaRavia came into the combine as a Draft Twitter sensation, shooting up many boards online due to his combination of defensive impact, 3-point shooting and all-around play. At 6’8”, he’s well-positioned to be a swing forward in the NBA.
After measuring and going through some testing, LaRavia withdrew from the 5v5 scrimmages, and the speculation going around is that he might have received a first-round interest. For any prospect to withdraw from playing after the first day when they were scheduled to play, speculation is going to run wild about a promise. There are very few other reasons for LaRavia to bow out, and it looks like he’ll be one of the first 30 names off the board.
Dyson Daniels, G-League Ignite - Daniels did an individual workout in front of scouts and did not participate in the typical 5v5 scrimmages. His pro day featured the swing skill for him: 3-point shooting. While we’re typically very skeptical of shooting in a workout being worth changing a prospect’s draft ceiling over, Daniels situation is a bit different. He was already on a positive trajectory through the end of the season, and this served as a great forum to see that shooting up close.
Daniels shot the ball incredibly well at the workout, both off the catch and off the dribble, from what we could see. Other sources who saw the whole workout came away raving about Daniels and believe he has safely vaulted himself into the top-eight of this draft class. That’s a big win for a guy once thought of as a toolsy connector piece and big point guard.