NBA Draft Combine: What We're Watching
Storylines always emerge at the end of Combine Week. Here are a few worth monitoring heading into the event
And suddenly, the basketball world descends on Chicago.
Over the weekend, we published an in-depth preview of the G-League Combine, a two-day set of 5v5 games, measurement testing and a pallet-cleanser before the main event: the 2022 NBA Draft Combine. That G-League preview went player-by-player in categories we could place them in.
This preview of the overall NBA Draft combine, running concurrently with the G-League but going all week, will be different in tone. Instead of a breakdown of the prospects themselves, let’s discuss some intriguing storylines, what guys and teams have to gain and the process as a whole.
A great way to start is by listening to our podcast episode with the great Ricky O’Donnell from SB Nation, which went over the entire combine process from a philosophical standpoint:
In addition to our time with Ricky, Jonathan Wasserman of B-R did a good write-up on the major questions heading into the combine, which runs in overlap with a lot of our big points.
The combine always produces fast risers up boards, dramatic storylines, players who withdraw from the draft entirely, rumors of promises in the first round, surprise measurements and countless other talking points. We’ll look at a few of those major points in this quick preview.
The Overtime Elite Experiment & Mystery Men
The entirety of the draft landscape has six days to put together an apples-to-apples comparison between the guys playing in the Overtime Elite program who are coming to the combine. Jean Montero and Dominick Barlow, two guys who are somewhat mysterious in draft circles, are in draftable territory but the level of competition they’ve faced with OTE is a giant question mark.
The week in Chicago won’t just provide opportunities to get these guys to test but to play in 5v5 scrimmages. Frankly, we wouldn’t be surprised if both sat out and kept their status as mystery men. Montero, in particular, only seems to have a lot to lose from the process, as he isn’t likely to get a ton of first-round buzz in our eyes. Perhaps this is all for nothing, as those two come, measure, interview and don’t play. But we’re dying to see how those guys perform against other college-level guys. Over the long-term, that will have a major impact on the Thompson twins, who are expected to be first-round guys in 2023.
We also have to throw Leonard Miller from Ft. Erie International Academy into the mix as a mystery man. Miller is enormous, fluid and shows touch, but he’s incredibly raw. Teams will be keeping their eyes on him due to the wide range of outcomes. Miller could be a first-rounder, an undrafted guy or simply choose to go to a high-major Division I program and gear up for the 2023 draft. Testing will be important for him, but the scrimmages could be most revealing.
The Guys on the Fence
This draft class is a pretty shallow one in terms of first-round talent. We only have 25 players receiving certain first-round grades at this point; the number was at 35 a season ago.
The lack of clearly-identified first-round guys means some prospects could be enticed to stay in the draft instead of opting to return to school. While those guys wrestle with taking NIL money or gambling on getting a four-year contract, the feedback they receive from scouts and NBA teams will go a long way in making their decisions. There are several invited to the combine who sit squarely on this fence.
Max Christie, Michigan State - Christie was dubbed as a shooter coming into his college career and didn’t live up to the hype as a one-and-done. He shot the ball poorly from 3-point range, especially in the back-half of the season. There’s some athleticism and shot creativity there to make him more than just a shooter, but the main strength to his game ultimately will be his jumper. There’s value in going through the process this year, but he likely needs a top-20 promise to stay in the draft.
Terquavion Smith, NC State - We are big fans of Terquavion, but that doesn’t mean other NBA teams will be. He’s super skinny and has a lot of polish to add to his game if he wants to be a positive pick-and-roll scorer. He doesn’t finish or pass it at a high enough level to play right away. The appeal of Terquavion is in his shot-making. A return to school, working on his body and having scouts focused on him all year could see him raise into lottery territory; that may be a little high to take him in 2022.
Moussa Diabate, Michigan - Diabate came on strong towards the tail end of the season and flashed enough defensively to earn an invite to the combine. He’s a switchable big who is somewhat of a tweener 4 and 5. Offensively he finishes at the rim and has some mobility to his game. Diabate is incredibly raw but an NBA team may want to invest in his natural tools. It will be interesting to see where his delineation line is for a return; if he’s guaranteed or promised to go top-40, that may be a better option than returning to Michigan to share the frontcourt with another big in Hunter Dickinson.
Dalen Terry, Arizona - We’re intrigued by Terry. He’s right on the cusp of a first-round talent in our book, as he combines size (6’7”), defensive impact and playmaking. The shot is what holds him back. Good shooting numbers and finding a niche during scrimmages will be necessary to prove he should stay in the draft. Keep your eye on him as a potential riser.
Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown - Probably the most surprising invitee in our eyes, Mohammed has been outside our top-100 for this entire draft cycle. He’s a hustle player on the wings, with long arms at 6’5” and tremendous athleticism. But there’s very little polish on his game right now, especially in the half-court. He’s a poor shooter and a sloppy handler. Like Diabate, we aren’t sure what it would take to keep Mohammed in this draft and avoid going back to Georgetown, a less-than-desirable spot for any prospect right now.
John Butler, Florida State - Butler certainly has his fans out there. He’s a 7’0” shooting guard who can block shots and switch onto the perimeter. Teams may fall in love with his length and shooting combo, while understanding he’s going to be super raw. His rare offering of natural traits could earn him a promise or enough feedback to stay in the draft. Going back to school may not see him gain a ton, though he’ll have to perform well enough in Chicago to prove he’s ready for draftability this year.
Potential Athletic Risers
Each year, the measurements and testing numbers from vertical jump steal a headline or two. Some tweet gets published about how long a guy is in comparison to what we thought, somebody grew a few inches from where they were listed in college, and someone breaks or ties a record. There are a few guys who could gain a lot from letting their athleticism be on display in these settings.
JD Davison, Alabama - Davison made the somewhat surprising decision to leave Alabama after a rough freshman year, stating that he was “done with college.” Davison is really raw as a guard prospect, combining a high turnover rate (especially out of the pick-and-roll) with poor shooting. Davison didn’t use his athleticism functionally as much as we would have hoped, but he possesses some of the most naturally-gifted tools a point guard can. He’s somewhat big, really fast and can jump out of the gym. He’s bound to raise a few eyebrows in the athletic settings. Frankly, his draft stock needs a little revitalization.
Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers - An athlete with rare proportions, Harper is simultaneously bursty, quick, freaking enormous, long-armed and fluid. He’s a bowling ball of a 6’6” mismatch. He should post strong agility numbers, weight room splits, a decent vertical and impressive length. Put all those together and he’ll have a nice portfolio to leave the combine with.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana - The draft class has a fair amount of bigs vying for space, but none may be as athletic as Trayce Jackson-Davis. He has a ton to gain by playing well and tightening up some concerns for his on-court arsenal; lack of feel or shooting have been evident in his college career, and what he’s focused on during pre-draft training sessions. But sometimes the measurements and burstiness is a good reminder for teams of the type of upside he could provide. Good length and size measurements are crucial for TJD to prove he’s big enough to be a 5.
Jalen Williams, Santa Clara - It may be cliche at this point to suggest Jalen Williams is a sleeper. It seems like the entire draft community online is pretty in on him. It’s easy to see why, as he combines feel and playmaking (as well as shooting) with natural size. Measurements can confirm what was rumored over the weekend: Williams was touted as having a 7’2” wingspan by ESPN’s Mike Schmitz. If true, that level of length on the wing will be incredibly intriguing for an NBA team.
Josh Minott, Memphis - Minott is likely in this draft class and not considering a return to school at all. He’s raw but has a ton of natural skills. Teams may love the total package in that regard, but his length and size numbers will go a long way in determining if he can ever be a small-ball 5.
The Top Guys
It’s rare for a projected top-five pick to play in 5v5 scrimmaging at the combine. In fact, many top-10 guys choose to sit out as well. Locks like Jaden Ivey, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren will be incredibly selective in what they participate in. As the draft lottery gets decided during the combine on Tuesday night, interviews the rest of the week will be geared towards the teams selecting in their ranges. Agents heavily control that process and protect their clients, using this as a time to set up personal workouts with teams in the desired draft range.
Outside of those four, everyone will have their eyes on Shaedon Sharpe from Kentucky. Another guy with too much to lose by participating in scrimmages, he could really be ignited by strong athletic testing numbers. Expect him and his agent to present himself as being included in that top tier of athletes; it’s the smart way to navigate the landscape.
Ditto goes for other mystery men who have what we would classify as fragile draft stock. Ousmane Dieng, with his frame and international competition background, may not show well against the physicality of some of these guys if he has to play out of position and guard up. He finished the season on a high note, so participating can only cool off his stock. The same goes for AJ Griffin, who is best served doing private workouts for teams and controlling the range he’s in. If I’m Griffin’s agent, I’m not scheduling a workout for him outside the top ten.
The next tier is worth looking into. Guys like Johnny Davis, Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin and Jalen Duren all have decisions to make on whether they’ll play in scrimmages. They’re rumored top-ten or at least lottery guys. Playing could cement them as such, or it could drop them a smidge. Luckily for them, the tier behind them isn’t really nipping at their heels. Don’t be surprised if these guys opt not to play, but an aggressive move to compete in the scrimmage could see major rewards.
The Pounce
In prior years, guys who start out really well during scrimmages can withdraw themselves from the rest of the event. In theory, that’s due to receiving a promise from a team that has seen enough to make a declaration that they’ll draft a player if available at a certain point. We saw it three years ago with Luka Samanic
Don’t be shocked if this happens again this year. The class is pretty wide open outside the lottery, meaning any team with a unique eval that feels confirmed in their positivity about a prospect could make this type of move. If someone sits out after a great initial performance of scrimmages, expect it to be because some team promised them in the 15-25 range.
The Strategic Sit
Other guys sit out games just to make sure they don’t deflate their stock. Guys who are gaining momentum on draft boards heading into the combine, for example, have little reason to play. As the old saying goes, “it’s better to be an idiot and keep your mouth shut than open it and remove all doubt.”
Some guys may be advised by their agents to measure, interview, then simply sit back and let the momentum keep working in their favor. The scrimmages tend to be more for guys in the 15-60 range, and if a player is rising into the higher parts of that bracket, a scrimmage may be too risky. Younger guys who have high upside tend to be the ones not to want to take the gamble.
A few names to watch in this regard: Blake Wesley, Bryce McGowens, Malaki Branham, Tari Eason, Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Jeremy Sochan.
Other Players of Interest
Jaden Hardy, G-League Ignite - Hardy may not opt to play in scrimmages; top scorers from the Ignite program may be best-served spinning their volume against pro competition as a clear separator from other prospects, and playing in a scrimmage can only serve as a means for narrowing that gap. But Hardy’s draft stock is fairly volatile and he needs some sort of jolt to get back into the top-15 discussions. The perception that he’s a subpar athlete can be remedied with strong testing, but if those numbers don’t turn out the way teams would hope, he may be forced into playing.
Trevor Keels, Duke - This section may turn into the “what position are they really?” portion of the article. Guys who are listed as tweeners in some fashion use this as an opportunity to, in the closest thing to a pro setting they’ve played in before, show what truly suits them best.
Keels is chief among the guys we’re struggling to figure out positionally and will be keeping tabs on during the 5v5 portion. Keels has a good feel and secondary playmaking ability, plus a tank-like build to destroy smaller guards. He’s also inconsistent from deep and not quite bendy enough to be the primary option. Very curious to see how the week treats him.
Peyton Watson, UCLA - Watson has a little bit of the positional tweener-ism to him, but combines that with a lack of overall productivity at a lower level. He has a ton to gain this week and needs to show at least something that he couldn’t at UCLA in order to intrigue teams.
Ryan Rollins, Toledo - Will he make shots? Can he be assertive enough to run a team? Does his scoring prowess hold up against high-level defenders?
To keep his positive momentum in the right direction, he’ll need some positive answers to those questions.
The International Guys - There’s a solid crop of international prospects invading this year, as nine guys who played basketball outside the United States this past season. Two, Leonard Miller and Ousmane Dieng, we mentioned before. In a draft class like this, a strong performance from a potential draft-and-stash could make them appealing in the mid-to-late first round. Others have more work to do athletically to prove they can come over right away.