NBA Season Preview: Atlantic Division
Perhaps the NBA's deepest division, there are several title contenders and a lot of All-Star talent residing in the Atlantic Division
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. We finally had a real offseason this summer, resulting in a few seismic shifts for franchises. Rudy Gobert is in Minnesota, Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland, Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, and a ton of teams are banking on getting back to health atop the crowded Western Conference. Looming for rebuilding teams is the threat of a historic top of the draft featuring Victor Wembanyama and a potential race to the bottom.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2022-23 NBA season.
New York Knicks
Head coach: Tom Thibodeau, 3rd year (78-76 record)
2021-22 Record: 37-45
Vegas Line: 38.5 wins
Our Projection: 37-45, 10th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 27th
Def. Rating: 13th
After an upstart season under Tom Thibodeau in 2020-21, the New York Knicks took a slight step backward last year, missing the playoffs altogether. The organization under Leon Rose has accumulated plenty of depth pieces and shrewdly drafted, but they haven’t attracted a star player yet, either via free agency or trade.
The prized offseason acquisition is Jalen Brunson, an incredibly sturdy point guard who is best when playing next to a star player. He’s fundamentally sound and makes those around him better, he just isn’t likely the primary engine of a playoff offense. That responsibility would fall on the shoulders of either RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. Randle, an All-Star in 2021, came crashing down to earth last year with poor 3-point shooting and overall inefficient play. He needs to have a 20 PPG year once again, on efficient numbers, to lead the Knicks to the postseason.
Barrett is the wild card. He’s quietly gotten better every season and can no longer have the training wheels on due to his age. He is a good but not great athlete, and a really strong passer, though he hasn’t found out how to consistently play athletically on offense or create for others as a primary pick-and-roll option. The next step in his development would see him take a leap into becoming the primary option.
The rest of the youth on the roster is incredibly solid, though very few high-end starters likely exist. Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley are in their third seasons and need to be counted upon for regular rotational roles. Quickley, more of a scorer off the bench, may have a role expansion blocked by the acquisition of Brunson. Similarly, Toppin and Randle as a frontcourt duo leaves some serious concerns on defense. The Knicks need to be great on that end; they were 11th in defensive rating last year and have to remain in that upper echelon to win games. Playing Toppin and Randle together could threaten that. How Quickley or Toppin expand their minutes with a blockade in front of them remains to be seen.
We really like Deuce McBride as a disruptive perimeter defender, Jericho Sims as a rim-rolling backup 5 and Quentin Grimes as a connective wing piece. Unfortunately, a few veterans are similarly competing with them for consistent minutes. Derrick Rose is still here in the backcourt, a longtime favorite of Thibodeau’s. Isaiah Hartenstein is a solid addition to the frontcourt, while starter Mitchell Robinson is expected to eat up at least 25 minutes per game at the 5. Even Grimes would have to surpass shooting threat Evan Fournier and hold off the potential of Cam Reddish.
The point is that there isn’t a ton of separation between the veterans and the young guys. That’s okay if the Knicks have a clear direction or expected outcome from the season: if they’re a legitimate title contender, the kids can wait, and if they’re rebuilding, they take precedence over the vets. Being stuck in the middle is a difficult spot to be in, and until they sift through their depth and figure out how to make the pieces they have work, we’ll be a tad down on the Knicks making the postseason.
Five Burning Questions
Can Julius Randle have a bounce-back season?
Will RJ Barrett take the next step?
Is Tom Thibodeau going to wear down on the Knicks?
How do the Knicks acquire a star player moving forward?
Is their defense good enough to be in the top ten and carry them to the postseason?
Brooklyn Nets
Head coach: Steve Nash, 2nd year (44-38 record)
2021-22 Record: 44-38
Vegas Line: 50.5 wins
Our Projection: 46-36, 6th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 2nd
Def. Rating: 16th
It’d be so easy to buy into this Brooklyn Nets team based on talent alone. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are still here, and the talent that the Nets have around them seems to only have increased. There are specialty shooters (Joe Harris, Seth Curry), impactful defenders (Royce O’Neale, Nic Claxton), battle-tested veterans (Patty Mills, TJ Warren, Markieff Morris) and youngsters brimming with upside (Cam Thomas, Day’Ron Sharpe, Kessler Edwards).
Of course, the one guy not mentioned here is Ben Simmons, who we haven’t seen play in over a year and has dealt with constant physical and emotional hurdles over the last 15 months. Relying on Simmons to bring a third star to this group is incredibly daunting; not only is his availability rightfully in question, but his impact is still hard to predict. Preseason reps on the offensive end have not been overwhelmingly encouraging. Due to the size of his contract and the stakes at play in Brooklyn on a team that is always filled with drama and teetering on the brink of collapse, Simmons’ season might be the make-or-break linchpin for the entire franchise.
The rest of the drama in the NBA has momentarily moved the national media away from the Kevin Durant trade request, as well as the relationship between him and Steve Nash. Durant is talented and can singlehandedly carry the Nets to the playoffs, with or without Kyrie and Simmons. However, last year’s first-round series against Boston proved he can’t win in the playoffs without help anymore. Don’t be surprised if the lack of reliability of Irving and Simmons urges Durant to ask for some sort of mid-season shakeup again.
There are just so many questions about health and availability, even beyond those two. TJ Warren didn’t play last year; we could get Bubble TJ Warren or sleepwalking, not-getting-enough-touches TJ Warren. Joe Harris is working his way back from injury, and both Patty Mills and Markieff Morris are well into their thirties. We know that on talent and experience alone these Nets can be good in the postseason if fully healthy, though the pathway to getting there relies a lot on health.
There are small rotational questions at play, too, for Nash and company to figure out. With Durant and Irving entrenched as starters (and Simmons seemingly on track for the same), who fills in those other spots? Will they play Simmons at the 5 and go for two skill positions next to them? Will they start one of Claxton, Sharpe or Morris at the 5? And if so, would the lack of shooting in a Simmons-big frontcourt mean you have to start one of Joe Harris or Seth Curry? Which one do you go with?
The answers to those questions directly impact the growth of their young guys with meaningful on-court reps. Cam Thomas, clearly a talented scorer and microwave option off the bench, is best-served staggering minutes with KD and Kyrie as much as possible. Sharpe is an intriguing big that needs minutes to keep getting better; if the Nets play Simmons at the 5 more, that obviously impacts his spot in the rotation. Kessler Edwards was solid and dependable last year; could TJ Warren and minutes for Morris at the 4 jeopardize his minutes?
Brooklyn has a lot of unique questions to answer, though they have undoubtedly gotten a little younger and more built to win around Durant. There are so many challenges with Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving, two of the least reliable players in the league, that it’s really hard to give a preseason prediction that the Nets will win 50 games. They’re too talented to completely underperform but too risky to bet on.
Five Burning Questions
Will their volatile elements blow up and prevent the group from reaching its ceiling?
What does Ben Simmons look like on the offensive end?
Do the Nets get an added boost from one of their young pieces?
Which players establish themselves as the best fits next to Durant and Irving this year?
Who starts at the 5: Claxton, Morris, or someone else?
Toronto Raptors
Head coach: Nick Nurse, 5th year (186-122 record)
2021-22 Record: 48-34
Vegas Line: 46.5 wins
Our Projection: 47-35, 5th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 16th
Def. Rating: 4th
Honestly, seeing this team win 50-53 games would not surprise me. They are built to terrorize the regular season with their length, constant defensive effort and the nightly coaching prowess of Nick Nurse. He’s an elite defensive tactician and runs some awesome stuff in ATO situations on offense (the key to my heart). With Nurse at the helm and All-Star-caliber guys like Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and Fred VanVleet, the Raptors rarely will have an off night.
That doesn’t mean this team isn’t without its fair share of flaws or question marks. Central to their identity is the idea of length and defensive versatility. Masai Ujiri has prioritized acquiring players like this over the last few years, and even trotted out a lineup during the playoffs where everyone had over a 7’0” wingspan. While it makes them elite on defense and fuels transition, the Raptors don’t have a ton of guys who clearly separate in the half-court one-on-one. Nurse can scheme for some of it, but the development of their perimeter players (namely Scottie Barnes) is what will take the Raps to the next level.
Toronto should also be bolstered by the health and return of OG Anunoby. The core four-man group of VanVleet, Barnes, Anunoby and Siakam is really talented and complements each other well. I wonder who the fifth option will be to close games and if Nurse will be changing that based on the opponent. Precious Achiuwa is a popular breakout name this year, a skilled and fluid big who runs the floor and can handle on the perimeter a bit. Chris Boucher is back to bring another stretch presence to the 5 spot, while veterans Otto Porter and Thaddeus Young fit the long, defensive-minded mold that Nurse and Ujiri seem to love.
There’s also Gary Trent Jr. as a specialty shooter, a really important piece for this team’s half-court offensive production. Trent is a legit 6’5” and needed floor spacing around Barnes and Siakam in particular. Were it us, we’d want Trent on the floor with that closing lineup as much as possible, though having he and VanVleet out there together does ruin some of the fun of a supersized, superlong lineup.
Youngsters in Toronto haven’t always been our favorite pre-draft but are intriguing for NBA development — and how they fit into the system in Toronto. Rookie Christian Koloko could give Toronto another option at the 5 and their only true rim protecting, screen-and-roll post player. It usually takes bigs a year or so to be ready for consistent minutes, but Koloko’s defenisve acumen and results at Arizona could point to a shorter-than-normal learning curve. Dalano Banton as a 6’9” point guard still makes me giddy to think about. Malachi Flynn is an intriguing backup guard; his time in Toronto has been up and down, as he mostly doesn’t fit the identity of length the roster is built upon. Even guys like Ron Harper Jr., Justin Champagnie and Gabe Brown provide long-term intrigue on the wings.
To bring things full circle, this team’s upside is going to be built on the growth of Scottie Barnes. Last year he showed a little more than we expected on offense out of the gate. He wasn’t perfect, but he was confident and took a lot of mid-range jumpers. Development isn’t linear, so it’s unfair to expect him to keep getting better at the same rate. However, the faster a leap happens for him, the faster the Raptors turn into a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.
VanVleet and Siakam turn 29 in the later parts of this season. Of the core pieces, they are the oldest. If Toronto really wants to maximize their title window, they will need to get moving in the next year or two. They aren’t quite to the level of being a top contender in the East as of yet, but they’re tough and talented enough to capitalize if there are injuries and the right postseason matchup.
Five Burning Questions
How will Nick Nurse construct his closing lineups?
Can they score enough in the half-court to win a playoff series?
Is Scottie Barnes ready to take another leap?
Do they have enough guard depth to sustain an injury?
Are we about to see a Precious Achiuwa breakout?
Philadelphia 76ers
Head coach: Doc Rivers, 3rd year (100-54 record)
2021-22 Record: 51-31
Vegas Line: 50.5 wins
Our Projection: 54-28, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 6th
Def. Rating: 8th
Somehow, some way, Doc Rivers always seems to coach the most talent-laden teams. Joel Embiid is a perennial MVP candidate, James Harden a future Hall-of-Famer who can still light it up as a scorer, and the ascention of Tyrese Maxey was perhaps the most underdiscussed national story for the team last season. They still have Tobias Harris, now more properly slotted into the 3rd or 4th option role, and a stingy veteran who always seems to help his team win games in PJ Tucker.
That starting lineup is elite and, in our opinion, will be the five-man unit that leads the NBA in plus-minus this season. They need to stay healthy, but it’s a dangerous group that help vault the Sixers into true title contender status. As we’ve seen for Doc Rivers teams in the playoffs, their bench units can quickly undo the work done by a first group. Rivers has all the pieces necessary to finally stagger his minutes a bit more: two backcourt creators in Maxey and Harden, enough overlap between Harris and Tucker to play one at a time, and a second unit filled with defensive-minded role players (Matisse Thybulle, De’Anthony Melton) that cannot carry the offensive load on their own. If Rivers doesn’t make those improvements come playoff time, it will be borderline malpractice and really threaten this team’s chances of advancing.
I do like the depth that Daryl Morey has accumulated, even if they are basically all ex-Houston Rockets. Montrezl Harrell was a decent late signing, a good offensive punch as an interior scorer and pick-and-roll threat off the bench. Georges Niang can go and certainly doesn’t lack confidence. Paul Reed is likely deserving of some sort of minutes. Even Danuel House gives the Sixers an additional piece of wing depth.
The one area the Sixers don’t have covered in their second unit is a microwave perimeter scorer. They could address this mid-season, and they very well could win without such a player (that’s why staggering Maxey and Harden often should be helpful). Still, the plethora of role guys here is ideal when their top options are so clearly defined and established.
Offensively, the Sixers have pieces. Defensively, Embiid may be good enough to anchor a top-half defense regardless of who is on the perimeter. Effort from Harden will certainly help, but Maxey is good enough to take the top matchups away from him and Tucker accustomed to playing with Harden already. Embiid is likely to be a man on a mission for an MVP as well, meaning more regular season games, effort and production.
If it feels like everything relates to Harden, that’s because it likely does. We’ve seen year after year what a group with Embiid looks like: good enough to win 50 games, but struggles in the playoffs without other All-Star talents. Harden needs to be in shape, consistent and more than just a lazy step-back shooter in order for the Sixers to truly win the Eastern Conference. More than any since their 2019 team with Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick is this group built to win in the postseason. That doesn’t mean X-factor questions cannot derail them, though.
Five Burning Questions
Which James Harden shows up in the regular season?
Which James Harden shows up in the postseason?
How do the Sixers maximize their depth properly?
Can Tyrese Maxey make the All-Star leap?
Will Doc Rivers make rotational/ tactical adjustments fast enough?
Boston Celtics
Head coach: Joe Mazzulla, 1st year
2021-22 Record: 51-31
Vegas Line: 54.5 wins
Our Projection: 55-27, 2nd in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 7th
Def. Rating: 3rd
What a busy last 10 months in Boston. On the brink of falling out of the playoffs altogether, Ime Udoka helped lead his Celtics to an historic ascent up the Eastern standings all the way to a top-two seed. They then burned through the East playoffs in a few seven-game series before falling at the hands of a dangerous Golden State Warriors team. Brad Stevens entered the summer and made another big swing via trade, acquiring Malcolm Brogdon to tighten their backcourt depth. While the future felt bright, a few key injuries (Robert Williams, Danilo Gallinari) and the unfortunate suspension of Udoka for the entire season have soured what was a seemingly white hot franchise.
Talent wins out, and the Celtics still have a great deal of it. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, believe it or not, can still keep getting better. They made the leap last year and still have small areas to address. Tatum can get to the rim more and keep creating for others. Brown’s handling and consistency need some work, too. Those two, with reigning Defensive POY Marcus Smart, make the Celtics dangerous on defense and incredibly versatile in their ‘switch everything’ scheme. You can see how defense will, yet again, be the focal point of their team; the roster is built with size at every position, there are almost no weak links in their rotation defensively, and they all play with a high IQ.
The addition of Brogdon gives Boston another offensive creator to alleviate some of the burden that often fell on Tatum and Brown. Brogdon can run with the first or second units, is a good scorer from deep, and rarely makes the wrong decision. He’s right in his prime now and was such a good acquisition for Stevens to pull off. He and Derrick White, along with shooting point guard Payton Pritchard, give the Celtics a good deal of backcourt depth.
The worries depth-wise are now on the wings and frontcourt. Grant Williams is a really capable defender and has turned into a lethal catch-and-shoot guy. He’s in a contract year and a good piece, and his versatility to play 3 thru 5 and guard opposing star players is hugely beneficial to this team. Other than him, there are questions.
Sam Hauser steps into the shooting specialist role, one the Celtics have been aiming to fill for years. Carsen Edwards and Aaron Nesmith never panned out, and Danilo Gallinari was signed this summer before tearing his ACL in international play. The Celts need Hauser to shoot a good deal of 3-pointers and never go cold. Without Gallinari, the C’s depth at the 5 becomes really thin. Al Horford and Robert Williams can both play the spot; while Williams is out early after knee surgery and Horford hopes to find the fountain of youth for a second consecutive season, the chances of them playing side-by-side as much as they did last year seem thin.
New coach Joe Mazzulla is also a bit of an X-Factor, though he’s well accustomed to how the Celtics do things, having been an assistant there for years. He talks up Luke Kornet a fair amount as a potential contributor, though we are skeptical. Mfiondu Kabengele is another name with intrigue, but counting on a late signing like that never makes me feel comfortable. The Celtics brought in Blake Griffin to help plug the hole as well.
Look, the Celtics do reliably have one of the most talented and deepest groups in the NBA. It’s why, despite all the injuries and internal turmoil, they are still positioned to be amongst the two or three best teams in the East. Another leap from Tatum and Brown, or health from everyone else come April, could see them back in the NBA Finals without much worry. They’re far from a shoe-in for the role, though.
Five Burning Questions
Can Robert Williams stay healthy this year?
Does Mazzulla play Brogdon more with Tatum and Brown or with the second unit?
Is Sam Hauser a legitimate rotation shooter for the playoffs?
Does Al Horford finally start playing like his age?
How often do we see the big lineup featuring both Horford and Rob Williams?