NBA Season Preview: Central Division
With some new firepower in the league, the Central Division boasts a ton of young and intriguing firepower
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. We finally had a real offseason this summer, resulting in a few seismic shifts for franchises. Rudy Gobert is in Minnesota, Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland, Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, and a ton of teams are banking on getting back to health atop the crowded Western Conference. Looming for rebuilding teams is the threat of a historic top of the draft featuring Victor Wembanyama and a potential race to the bottom.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2022-23 NBA season.
Indiana Pacers
Head coach: Rick Carlisle, 2nd year (25-57 record)
2021-22 Record: 25-57
Vegas Line: 24.5 wins
Our Projection: 27-55, 14th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 24th
Def. Rating: 26th
Sometimes success can be a simple formula. Get one fantastic creator and surround him with shooters. Tyrese Haliburton is on his way to proving that if he’s given the keys to an offense he can make dozens of elite passes nightly. The Pacers also have a plethora of shooting options on the wings around him. Buddy Hield (for now) is the most proven of the group. Chris Duarte and Aaron Nesmith are young snipers with movement upside. Bennedict Mathurin drilled shots in college and appears to be really good off-ball. The ingredients for that formula are here.
As such, the Pacers could outperform expectations simply by scoring a crap ton of points. Even frontcourt options like Jalen Smith and Myles Turner shoot it, and Daniel Theis does a little bit. It’s just so hard to envision what this roster is going to look like in the later parts of the season, as we’ve heard Myles Turner and Buddy Hield come up in trade talks for a long, long time.
If they are to leave, the Pacers front office has to figure out when the right time to discard them is and what the return should include. There’s room to take on some money, or to eat a large contract when sending them out. But this organization has long been opposed to a buyout after trading for someone, let alone burying a talented player on the depth chart just to lose games. Rick Carlisle isn’t wired that way either.
From the outset of the season, the Pacers are saying they’re going to try and compete. Perhaps that’s designed to help drive up Turner’s trade value, letting others know that dealing him isn’t a foregone conclusion. Or perhaps they really feel that Haliburton, Turner, shooters and their genius coach is enough to sneak into the tail end of the playoff picture.
There are other pieces at the 3 and 4 that are of interest. Terry Taylor, aka the Red Rooster, is an undersized 4-man who thrives in screen-and-roll or short roll situations. He’s a funky player that requires a lot of pieces to be molded around his game, but he’s impactful when he’s in. Isaiah Jackson, Oshae Brissett and Jalen Smith are all young forwards/ smaller 5s to work with. The minutes behind Turner out of the gate, with Jackson and Goga Bitadze jockeying for position with Daniel Theis, will indicate a lot about the Pacers’ long-term plans.
The Pacers do have some fringe young guys waiting in the wings, ready to capitalize if they go into tank mode once again. Rookies Kendall Brown and Andrew Nembhard are intriguing at positions of need. But their pathway to minutes is blocked by guys like TJ McConnell and Oshae Brissett. Until the Pacers are firmly out of the playoff picture, I wouldn’t expect to see them.
Much of this season is going to be about further exploring Haliburton as the engine and figuring out what they have in Mathurin. He’s wildly competitive and has a legitimate self-creation upside, as he showed in flashes at Arizona. If the Pacers come away from this season with a legitimate scoring option in Mathurin to pair with Haliburton, they’ll be on the right track organizationally.
Five Burning Questions
When, if at all, will Myles Turner and Buddy Hield get traded?
Does Tyrese Haliburton single-handedly carry the Pacers to be good enough to avoid the tanking conversation?
How high is Bennedict Mathurin’s ceiling?
What is this team’s long-term defensive identity?
Long-term, should the Pacers have another primary creator fit next to Tyrese Haliburton?
Detroit Pistons
Head coach: Dwane Casey, 4th year (104-198 record)
2021-22 Record: 23-59
Vegas Line: 29.5 wins
Our Projection: 28-54, 13th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 26th
Def. Rating: 21st
Man, there are a lot of good, young players on this roster. The emphasis belongs on the word ‘young’ though, as it’s far too soon to be expecting this team to make the leap into true playoff contender status. Perhaps they’ll be good enough to make an outside run at the play-in game, and there’s a ton of merit to that for the long-term development of this group. But we aren’t quite ready to proclaim them as a play-in team.
Cade Cunningham is him. He’s an incredibly cerebral big guard who can score in the mid-range and finish near the rim. Sure, his shooting hasn’t been exquisite early in his NBA career, but there’s a large enough sample size to indicate that he will figure it out. Cade is the late-clock option and a clear-cut number-one choice for almost any team to build around; in two years, he may be able to do what Luka Doncic does for Dallas.
Based on how the Pistons have drafted, I don’t think he’ll have to. Adding Jaden Ivey this draft gives them a ‘fire and ice’ type of combination, a really aggressive scoring guard who is a walking paint touch. While Cade is more cerebral and methodical, Ivey is the live-wired athlete that nobody can contain. Such a combination in the backcourt is lethal for Detroit.
Playing Cunningham and Ivey at the 1 and 2 puts two guys with a 6’9” and 7’0” wingspan defending at the point of attack. That can be bothersome for opponents, or it could mean the Pistons are the next ‘switch everything’ franchise to emerge. The rest of their personnel indicates the Troy Weaver special (size, athleticism, length) is trending in that direction. Saddiq Bey and Killian Hayes fit that mold as members of the 2020 draft class.
Of course, the real test for any switching defense is about what big men are in the rotation. Can they survive in isolation on the perimeter? Are they able to move their feet and cut off driving lanes? Isaiah Stewart is solid laterally, though I wouldn’t call him an absolute slam dunk in a switching scheme. To us, the real focal point down low is Jalen Duren, the rookie from Memphis. His glimpses of switchability, along with dominant rebounding, make him a steal in the late lottery and a long-term piece that deserves to be on similar footing to Ivey and Bey.
Playing Duren and Stewart together appears to be high on Dwane Casey’s to-do list this season. Stewart has put in work to add a 3-point jumper to his repertoire, and if he’s to play next to Duren, that feels like a necessity. Marvin Bagley is an energetic rolling 4-man, and Nerlens Noel can flash some defense if necessary. That’s a solid long-term rotation, but it does have a lack of stretch bigs to deploy when they need it.
Too many rebuilding teams suffer through a lack of floor spacing, often because positive floor spacers are in high demand from contenders and tend to be older. We love the Pistons making the prioritization of adding a premium floor spacer and overall battle-tested offensive piece in Bojan Bogdanovic. It cost them nothing substantial and should help immediately space the floor around Cade and Ivey, an area the Pistons were brutal with last year. Now they’ll have Bogdanovic and Bey on the wings, two positive catch-and-shoot threats, and Michigan upstart Isaiah Livers ready on the second unit.
Year three will be big for Killian Hayes, who needs to figure out how he slots in on-ball and off-ball with this team. He’ll be their third guard; that could mean coming off the bench, or starting as a spot-up guy so that Ivey can eat more against second units. Either way, it’s been an up-and-down time in Detroit. He can at least defend, so embracing that at his length should keep him in the rotation. Cory Joseph is competent enough to step up if required and provides a veteran presence in that backcourt.
From a contractual perspective, the Pistons are still working through the Kemba Walker situation, an additional potential asset to play with. A few other intriguing pieces fly around the margins of the roster as well. The meat and potatoes of this attack comes through the progression of Cade and Jaden, the development of a defensive identity, and the addition of 3-point shooting to the court. There will be really strong showings and some growing pains along the way, but we really like what the Pistons are building.
Five Burning Questions
Will they commit to a ‘switch everything’ scheme this year?
How much do Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey play together vs. staggering their minutes?
Can Isaiah Stewart really be the stretch-4 that they need?
Can Killian Hayes find the role that suits him best?
Are Jalen Duren or Saddiq Bey good enough to be considered a pillar of their long-term outlook?
Cleveland Cavaliers
Head coach: JB Bickerstaff, 3rd year (71-94 record)
2021-23 Record: 44-38
Vegas Line: 46.5 wins
Our Projection: 44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 15th
Def. Rating: 12th
We all should’ve seen this coming. The Cleveland Cavaliers were the perfect trade partner for Donovan Mitchell: a young enough core to convince him to stay, the trade assets to pull off a deal, and a guarantee of the ability to gel into a contending group. We don’t see that gelling process resulting in a major ascent up the Eastern Conference standings this season, as there are a lot of pieces to integrate and still some relative youth. Check back in a year from now, though, and we’re likely to be incredibly high on the Cavs.
Mitchell is one of three All-Stars on this Cavaliers roster, joining point guard Darius Garland and center Jarrett Allen. That doesn’t even mention Evan Mobley, the second-year player with potentially the highest ceiling of them all. What a core four to build around. Two lead guards who both can shoot and play off-ball, and two bigs who are mobile enough to survive on the perimeter and lock down the paint while the other is away from the hoop. It’s a formula that felt clunky at first but head coach JB Bickerstaff made work last year, due both to fantastic scheming and the right limitations on a guy like Mobley.
The Garland and Mitchell fit is fantastic, particularly because of the defensive acumen of Mobley and Allen behind it. Many of the schematic problems that come from having two smaller, non-defensive-minded point guards are alleviated by the fact there will always be a rim protector behind them. Bickerstaff can put two-sided pick-and-roll options at play, have one of the bigs stationed in the dunker spot, or have Mobley killing it as a creator with different cutting or screening actions around him.
The next step in Mobley’s development into becoming a true offensive focal point is what takes this Cavs team to the next level. Sure, it’ll take him another year or two to evolve into a DPOY contender. But the offensive ceiling is the one that those around the Cavs are most excited about and cannot wait to explore. We aren’t sold on that being efficient or dependable enough this season, which is why we don’t see the Cavs as a 50-win group.
Bickerstaff also needs to lock down an option to start (or most importantly close games) at the 3. Isaac Okoro may be the leading candidate, but his inconsistent 3-point shooting would be a clunky offensive fit in a two-big lineup. Caris LeVert is the most talented guy for the job, though he may be best served as an offensive piece with the second unit. Dean Wade or Lamar Stevens stand out as dark horse candidates, too.
LeVert with the second unit is a necessity while Ricky Rubio is still recovering from surgery. He was outstanding as a second unit guard last year, and LeVert’s scoring punch next to him would be fantastic for the Cavs. In that second unit is also Kevin Love, a really good scoring stretch-4 at this point in his career, and one of Allen or Mobley likely playing the 5. I look at that second unit and think Okoro would be a fantastic fit.
There’s some fat on the end of the roster that could get trimmed eventually, too. Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler and Robin Lopez occupy some of the tail-end roster spots. Isaiah Mobley is a two-way guy who really intrigues us, too. An additional move or two to add dependable shooting and tighten that final wing spot is necessary.
Look, the benefit to having two bigs like the Cavs do is that they can get away with more offensive-minded perimeter players and not need plus defenders on the wings. However, that still seems to be a winning formula come playoff time in isolation situations. We think the Cavs are a few 3-and-D pieces away from being an incredibly solid, well-thought-out group that can push their way to the top of the East.
Five Burning Questions
Can Evan Mobley take the next step to become an All-Star this year?
Are there any downsides to the Garland and Mitchell combination that we don’t anticipate?
Who starts at the 3?
Will the Cavs start to stagger Mobley and Allen minutes at a higher rate, or keep rolling with the two big lineup?
How does Caris LeVert fit into this group?
Chicago Bulls
Head coach: Billy Donovan, 3rd year (77-77 record)
2021-22 Record: 46-36
Vegas Line: 42.5 wins
Our Projection: 44-38, 7th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 14th
Def. Rating: 19th
Since Arturas Karnisovas took over the front office responsibilities in Chicago, the biggest takeaway I’ve found is how clearly the Bulls want roles to be defined on-court. They have three major scorers on their roster: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. While there may be questions about how they all complement each other and fit together, there’s little doubt that they are the top three options.
Next to them are a ton of unselfish, energy, gritty role players who simply make those around them better. Lonzo Ball has carved out his NBA niche with this role, a playmaking combo with high IQ but enough shooting to last. He’s the defensive glue that allows LaVine and DeRozan to work, too. Alex Caruso is mini-Lonzo to a certain extent, an absolute bulldog at the point of attack. Ayo Dosunmu has cemented himself as the starter in Lonzo’s absence, a big guard who brings many of those intangibles to the table. Dalen Terry, their rookie this year, is energetic and a pass-first guy with unlimited defensive confidence and the right mentality for the group. Javonte Green has carved out a career for himself (and potentially a starting role) because of his defense and desire to do the dirty work.
Two younger pieces serve as linchpins for the Bulls, caught somewhere in between being talented enough as scorers to not be ignored but best served for the team being siphoned into a smaller role. The first, and more important one long-term, is Patrick Williams. Anyone who has watched him play over the last year has seen how he’s brimming with upside on both ends. He’s big and strong, somewhat creative off the bounce, and has put a ton of work into his jump shot. But how he works next to DeRozan and LaVine really remains to be seen. The other player is Coby White, though it’s easy to see him as the source of bench points needed when their star backcourt guys sit.
Frankly, we love the backcourt rotation. LaVine-Ball-Dosunmu-Caruso-White-Terry goes six deep, and that doesn’t even mention Goran Dragic, the insurance policy while Lonzo is out. There’s enough size with Terry, Ball and Ayo to have those guys guard up and play the 3. DeRozan and Williams are slated in at the 3 and 4, and with Green coming off the bench behind them, there will be no shortage of physical bodies at the wing spots. Adding one more shooter wouldn’t hurt, though.
The questions for this team come at the 5. Vooch hasn’t been as seamless of a fit as once thought to be; he takes up the same spaces as DeRozan on offense and doesn’t give them a ton of blanket protection on the defensive end. Andre Drummond, a battle-tested veteran, is a good talent addition as a backup, though his overconfidence on the offensive end doesn’t always gel with their ‘know your role’ mentality. We don’t have the trust in Tony Bradley or Marko Simonovic yet to add a positive element here.
Vooch has been on the trade block in online rumors for a while, and there are always centers on the market. Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl could be available from rebuilding teams for the right package, though Chicago isn’t exactly stocked with future draft assets to make it happen. We expect this to be a common conversation throughout the year.
The question is how much his play or those rumors will impact Chicago’s overall play. Lonzo being injured to start the year puts a major damper on things, as he’s a key defensive piece to alleviate some of those concerns. Last year, the Bulls won 46 games despite a ton of injures, losing Ball, Caruso, and Pat Williams for chunks of the season, and an unfortunate late-season performance. But DeRozan was playing like an MVP candidate for long stretches, and a healthy LaVine next to him gives the Bulls two of the top scorers in the Eastern Conference.
The East has gotten better, no doubt. But so have the Bulls, adding more depth to their rotation and letting their young guys add layers to their game. We think the Bulls are right in the mix for that last guaranteed playoff spot and on the borderline of missing the play-in game.
Five Burning Questions
Will Lonzo Ball be healthy enough to be a season-long mainstay again?
How does Patrick Williams take the next step forward in his development?
Is Nikola Vucevic truly on the trading block?
How much more juice does DeMar DeRozan have in the tank?
Can the Bulls cobble together enough defensive competence to win a playoff series?
Milwaukee Bucks
Head coach: Mike Budenholzer, 6th year (213-96 record)
2021-22 Record: 51-31
Vegas Line: 53.5 wins
Our Projection: 59-23, 1st in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 3rd
Def. Rating: 1st
Look, injuries matter. With Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton healthy all of the regular season and playoffs, perhaps the Bucks’ 2022 campaign finishes differently. You can’t look back and play the ‘what if’ game, though, only move forward and try to win the next one. That’s exactly what the Bucks will do, with a motivated Giannis Antetokounmpo in great shape after international competition this summer and hungry for another MVP. He can carry the Bucks through the regular season on his own, to be honest.
The injuries around him certainly play a role in the short-term and long-term outlook, though. Khris Middleton is the Robin to his Batman. Middleton missed the playoff series against the Celtics and will not be ready at the start of the regular season. How long it takes him to ramp up early on will be something to watch, though there are no indications that his injury will impact him come playoff time. Brook Lopez is now 34 and not the most mobile of bigs; injuries and age could lead to a dropoff in production from their trusted big man. Other role players, like Serge Ibaka and Joe Ingles, have or are currently dealing with major injuries. Those veterans, if healthy by the end of the year, tighten a ton of depth concerns for the Bucks.
Until April arrives and we know what to expect from Ingles and Ibaka, the Bucks will be looking for some other young guys to step up. Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews, and George Hill still make up the majority of their wing/ backcourt rotation next to core pieces of Giannis, Middleton and Jrue Holiday. They probably need one more wing to jump into the rotation. Jordan Nwora can shoot it, though his defense leaves a bit to be desired. Rookie MarJon Beauchamp is next in line, a physical defender with a high offensive ceiling. If Beauchamp turns into a year one contributor, the Bucks will move towards being a really deep team — at least once Ingles returns.
Behind Lopez at the 5 is Bobby Portis, a good energy big who can play both the 4 and the 5. There isn’t a lot of depth behind him, though, so health from both Lopez and Portis is necessary for this team. We don’t know what to expect from Ibaka, either.
To be frank, there aren’t a ton of personnel questions — at least not more than any other team in the league. Health matters, and there are a ton of veterans on the roster. The biggest adjustment might be schematic, as the Bucks look to alter their strategy from packing the paint and daring teams to shoot a ton of 3-pointers. That strategy has gotten them into trouble against teams like the Celtics, and if they are going to take down some of the top shooting teams in the league, they may need at least an additional pick-and-roll scheme in their back pocket.
Mike Budenholzer gets a reputation for not being able to adjust, though we don’t think it’s fully justified. The real question is whether guys like Brook Lopez can adjust to a different scheme. The Bucks don’t have a ton of other options to play at the 5, so catering to Brook in his age 34 season is necessary. We think the Bucks can have another cakewalk through the regular season and will be the East’s top team once again, though we do want to see if any defensive adjustments are made prior to April before betting on them to win a title.
Five Burning Questions
Will Giannis go superhuman mode all season to ensure the Bucks are back in the NBA Finals?
Are they going to alter their defensive strategy to further account for teams getting better from deep?
Do the Bucks have enough depth to get through the regular season as the East’s top team?
Will there be any lingering issues from Khris Middleton’s delayed start to the regular season?
Can the Bucks still get maximum value out of Brook Lopez?