NBA Season Preview: Pacific Division
NBA Season Preview: Pacific Division
Is it possible that all five teams in the division finish above .500?
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. We finally had a real offseason this summer, resulting in a few seismic shifts for franchises. Rudy Gobert is in Minnesota, Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland, Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, and a ton of teams are banking on getting back to health atop the crowded Western Conference. Looming for rebuilding teams is the threat of a historic top of the draft featuring Victor Wembanyama and a potential race to the bottom.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2022-23 NBA season.
Sacramento Kings
Head coach: Mike Brown, 1st year
2021-22 Record: 30-52
Vegas Line: 34.5 wins
Our Projection: 39-43, 10th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 17th
Def. Rating: 22nd
Few teams are chasing the play-in game from a desperate standpoint like the Sacramento Kings. They have the longest playoff drought in the league, now standing beyond 15 years. The Kings fans are as loyal as they come and have continued to support their team despite a lack of talent, continuity and head-scratching ownership decisions. Vivek Ranadive is one of the biggest meddlers there is, always putting his hand into basketball decisions that he’s likely not qualified to tinker with.
Despite the head-scratching trade of long-term talent Tyrese Haliburton at last year’s trade deadline, it’s easy to like many of the moves made by Monte Morris since taking the reigns of the front office. Domantas Sabonis gives them a legitimate All-Star next to De’Aaron Fox and a really dynamic duo on the offensive end. He’s drafted safe but impactful older players in the high parts of the draft, now coming away with Davion Mitchell and Keegan Murray in consecutive years. He’s acquired some high-value wing shooters like Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, leaning into a spacing-based approach.
Perhaps the most impactful move he’s made to chase the playoffs immediately was the hiring of Mike Brown as head coach. Through training camp, Brown has been lauded universally by the players for the culture of hard work he’s bringing in, the way he’s constructing the defense, and generating buy-in from top to bottom. Such an infusion of positivity with a battle-tested coach like Brown can really help the Kings win games right away.
Brown does have some key decisions to make moving forward, though. One of them has to do with how he constructs his rotation. Fox and Sabonis seem entrenched as the bookends at the point and the center spots. Anywhere in between could be some combination of Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Davion Mitchell. The lineup that makes the most sense is Barnes-Murray-Huerter, though that leaves their bench a tad small (Monk and Mitchell off the bench, or one of them playing the 3 if they share the floor with Fox). There are reasons to play Huerter at the 3 and lean into their offense in high regard; we’ll see how Brown navigates all these factors to come up with the best rotation and closing lineup.
Richaun Holmes is also a unique factor into the equation. He and Sabonis are both talented enough to get 20+ minutes a night, though I don’t love the combination of them sharing the floor together. Backup big man Chimezie Metu is also teetering on the door of being a strong rotation piece, too. Holmes is a solid pick-and-roll big with a really good floater game and solid defense. We’ll see if he finishes the season in Sacramento or how many minutes Brown decides to play the two together. The bottom line is this: if Sabonis is playing 30 minutes a night, Holmes is far too talented to be only playing 18 in his stead.
The two youngest guys in the rotation, Davion Mitchell and Keegan Murray, will have large roles to play if the Kings become a successful and playoff-bound group this year. Murray has looked incredibly solid in every regard since being drafted this past June. He’s a good, consistent shooter, he defends well, and he’s pretty efficient near the rim. Playing both the 3 or the 4 in the West isn’t easy, with the likes of LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Draymond Green, and Zion Williamson all presenting different matchup challenges. Mitchell, meanwhile, is the best defender on a team pretty thin on plus defenders. That’s a lot to ask of a second-year pro, particularly one who may come off the bench.
Brown’s construction of their defense schematically will really matter. We’ve seen teams with less-than-athletic 5-men try to be more aggressive with their ball screen coverage in the past (including around Sabonis in Indiana), but it rarely works out well: just as the Portland Trail Blazers last year. Perhaps Brown can find ways to really turn this team into a top-20 defense, but we don’t see it. Personnel matters more than scheme on that end, and the Kings simply don’t have much.
Everything about how this team’s makeup indicates that they’re going as hard as they can at a playoff berth this year. As such, we don’t expect them to be selling on Harrison Barnes or Richaun Holmes unless they can yield a return that helps them more in the short-term. Both veterans are useful rotation pieces, both here and elsewhere. I don’t think this Kings team is built to win a playoff series, but man would we love to see them break the playoff skid and make an appearance in the play-in game.
Five Burning Questions
Can Mike Brown turn them into a competent defensive team?
How many of Keegan Murray and Davion Mitchell find themselves consistently in the closing lineup?
Who emerges as the best 2-guard next to De’Aaron Fox?
Does Richaun Holmes finish the season in Sacramento?
Are the Kings able to finish the season higher than the 9th seed in the West?
Los Angeles Lakers
Head coach: Darvin Ham, 1st year
2021-22 Record: 33-49
Vegas Line: 44.5 wins
Our Projection: 42-40, 9th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 20th
Def. Rating: 14th
Writing about the Lakers is among my least favorite activities, in the same tier as gargling thumbtacks and listening to Sheep on Drugs. It’s not because the Lakers aren’t a fascinating team — they are in so many ways. But the reaction to whatever is said about their team is overly scrutinized and almost always taken out of context. Things are never as simple as the fanbase wants it to seem, and their impatience for explanation puts the writer in a lose-lose situation.
Well… here goes anyway.
We’ve long believed that, as players age, they need to slide up the lineup defensively in order to maximize their output. They lose a half step, they get stronger and more physical… you get the point. LeBron James is 37 and will turn 38 during the season; with our logic, LeBron is best on the defensive end guarding opposing 4s.
If that’s going to be the case, and LeBron is going to continue to be their most important and impactful player (hey, the guy averaged 30-8-6 last year, I’d say he’s fucking amazing), first-year head coach Darvin Ham would be wise to cater to those needs. The Lakers’ second-best player is Anthony Davis, a long and athletic 6’11” big who helped carry the team to a title in the bubble by increasing his minutes at the 5. Yet Davis has always been opposed to playing the 5 full-time.
Look, we get it. It’s a physical position and requires a lot of attention to detail on the defensive end on a nightly basis. Davis has proven frail throughout his career, so he’s likely trying to look out for his own health and make it to the playoffs healthy. Once he gets to the postseason, he’ll ‘turn it on’ and play the 5 more frequently.
Only one problem: the Lakers aren’t good enough as currently constructed for a guy like Davis to be on cruise control for the first 82 games of the year. Plus, the lineup synergy really doesn’t work well anymore when James is at the 3 and Davis is at the 4. Playing that way likely puts another non-shooter at the 5 for the Lakers, one of Thomas Bryant or Damian Jones. Bryant has been a solid shooter in the past, though defenses likely won’t bat an eye if he’s taking them consistently instead of James or Davis getting shots in the lane.
Those lineups with LeBron-Davis-Bryant would work a lot better if the Lakers had impactful 3-point shooters in their backcourt. Instead, Rob Pelinka and shadow GM LeBron James pushed for the acquisition of Russell Westbrook a year ago, tying up a great deal of money in the point guard spot. The results last year were staggeringly bad: Westbrook and LeBron had a bit of a power struggle for on-ball reps, Westbrook looked awful as a shooter, and the result is the consideration of moving the future Hall of Famer to the second unit.
That decision is never an easy one, especially for a first-time head coach. It would be a hell of a lot easier if the Lakers had reliable depth in their backcourt. Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, Patrick Beverley and Kendrick Nunn are all good enough to be in a rotation somewhere, though neither are of starting caliber on really good teams. Dennis Schroder was a late-summer signing to hopefully add some depth and another creator. All these signings are the direct result of being a top-heavy roster, with over $100 million annually tied up in three players who don’t mesh well.
Trading Westbrook has always felt like the neatest solution to the problem: attach a pick or two to a team that eats his salary and see if you can bring back two or three rotation pieces that mesh better with the lineup. LeBron is 38 and won’t be in his prime forever; the Lakers need to try and win games this year. The Westbrook for Buddy Hield and Myles Turner deal has seemed teed up for a while, and it checks a lot of boxes. A speciality shooter in Hield, a 5-man in Turner who allows Davis to play the 4 without sacrificing a ton of spacing due to Turner’s shooting ability. But as we sit here in the preseason, with no sign of a deal on the verge of completion and Westbrook moving to the second unit during their last preseason game, it’s hard to do anything but look solely at what we have in front of us.
James and Davis have both encountered injuries in seasons of late. There’s very little trustworthy shooting around them, a ton of melodrama around the Westbrook situation, and very little depth in the frontcourt or on the wings. On the backs of LeBron’s superhuman play and Davis’ unique athleticism alone, the Lakers should be a viable threat for the play-in game. Until we see how the Westbrook situation comes to fruition and if a deal is truly in the works, we’ll remain skeptical that the Lakers can crawl back up into the status of a true contender in the West.
Five Burning Questions
When, if at all, will Russell Westbrook get traded?
How do the Lakers manufacture spacing for their half-court offense?
Does Anthony Davis playing the 5 give them the best chance of winning games?
Can their core make it through the season healthy?
Who does Darvin Ham utilize for closing lineups?
Phoenix Suns
Head coach: Monty Williams, 4th year (149-78 record)
2021-22 Record: 64-18
Vegas Line: 52.5 wins
Our Projection: 48-34, 5th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 5th
Def. Rating: 9th
16 wins is a pretty steep drop-off from one season to another. It’s particularly steep because, as of this moment, everyone in the top-six of the rotation returns to the team from a year ago. So why the relative pessimism?
The vibes just feel off in Phoenix. It’s been a whacky offseason, from ownership investigations to sale of the team coming soon, from the DeAndre Ayton frustration with Monty Williams to the silence following the Suns matching his offer sheet this summer. Now, Jae Crowder, a starter on last year’s 64-win team, is asking for a trade. The absolute shit-kicking they took at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals has left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth.
Sure, this team still has three perennial All-Star candidates in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton, as well as one of the best defenders and role players in the league in Mikal Bridges. But Ayton seems unhappy, working through a damaged relationship with head coach Monty Williams after some surprise benchings during the postseason and little conversation to back it up. The Suns paid Ayton All-Star money this summer to keep him around, so continuing this pattern of poor communication and leaving him off the floor in crunch time would be conspicuous.
Paul, meanwhile, struggled a bit in the playoffs. He was hounded by younger guards who pressured him like Jose Alvarado, looked a half-step slower than normal, and while he still put up unbelievable numbers, he didn’t feel like the same ole’ CP3. He is already 37 and will turn 38 before the playoffs begin. It wouldn’t surprise us if this is the year where Paul finally starts to decline a little in terms of the workload he can handle.
The Suns’ roster isn’t currently equipped to handle a Paul absence for a long period of time. Booker is an adequate passer and can have the offense run through him, but a true lead guard he is not. Other than Cameron Payne (who also is starting to lose some of his magic luster from the bubble), there are no backup handlers on this roster. It’s a potential weak spot that needs to be addressed.
The value of CP3 is that he works well next to any type of center, maximizing screen-and-roll bigs to the extreme. They signed Bismack Biyombo to a contract to fill that role, and it works… so long as Paul is Paul. If he’s out of the lineup or we have a diminished version of him this season, the Suns may be looking for a different option as their backup 5.
Dario Saric can fill that in some regard, but we have questions about his health and movement ability coming back from injury. Saric’s main value is in the size of his contract and how he could be used in a trade to help get the Suns a rotational piece for the playoffs. It’s hard to know exactly what the biggest need for the roster is currently or will be. We’ll want to see how Paul and Payne play at the 1, how the Ayton situation sorts itself out by mid-season when he’s eligible to be traded, and what type of deal is struck for Jae Crowder.
Crowder’s presence, if he indeed is done in Phoenix, will sorely be missed. Bridges is an excellent wing defender, though Crowder’s intangibles, corner shooting and ability to take on physical matchups on the wings have allowed everybody else to do what they do best. Part of his unhappiness probably comes from the idea that Cam Johnson will start at the 4 this season; he provides a needed element of floor spacing as an elite 3-point shooter. However, the wing rotation becomes incredibly thin of physical pieces if Crowder isn’t replaced by a good defender.
All of these potential question marks only underscore the biggest issue with this Suns roster: a lack of reliable depth. James Jones has done a solid job of maneuvering trades and nursing some retread veterans back to relevance. However, he hasn’t utilized mid-level exceptions or attracted enough proven veterans to join the franchise. They should be an appealing destination for veterans going ring chasing, yet they weren’t last year winning 64 games and likely won’t be again this year.
The vibes are just a tad off in Phoenix, and we don’t know how to fix them. We love Devin Booker, we want Paul to stay healthy, and Ayton remains a positive long-term building block. Maybe it’s the sale of the team. Maybe it’s the disappointing end to last year’s playoff run. Maybe it’s all the internal struggle going on between Williams and Ayton rubbing off on everyone else. But this team feels like it could be on the verge of an implosion, so it’s hard to trust them to truly be a 50-game winner this year in a much more loaded and healthy Western Conference.
Five Burning Questions
Is this the year Chris Paul finally hits his decline?
Why are the vibes so off right now?
What will come of the Jae Crowder trade situation?
Can the Suns add quality depth during the season to bolster their playoff rotation?
How will the ongoing sale of the team and suspension of majority owner Robert Sarver factor into personnel decisions that need to take place in-season?
Los Angeles Clippers
Head coach: Ty Lue, 3rd year (89-65 record)
2021-22 Record: 42-40
Vegas Line: 52.5 wins
Our Projection: 56-26, 3rd in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 10th
Def. Rating: 5th
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are really good at basketball. Let’s not forget that both are perennial All-Stars, go-to scorers, really good defenders, and proven performers. Surrounding them in Los Angeles is a tremendous group of veterans and youngsters alike, a Clippers team that goes about 11 deep on a comfortable night, and a vastly underrated head coach in Ty Lue who knows how to put all the pieces together. Their depth and versatility, along with their star power, puts them in a great position to win playoff series.
How they get to that point remains to be seen. With little doubt, the Clippers are talented enough to be a postseason team, and likely good enough to be a top-four team in the West without much fanfare. But minutes restrictions and prioritizing health of their two stars may take precedence over seeding and chasing a 60-win season for this group.
Think of this Clippers team as having three positions: a guard, a post, and three wings. Two of those wings are Leonard and George, both some of the premiere options at the position in the game. They’ll start Ivica Zubac as the post, their only true interior defender and a really solid, underrated player for them. Reggie Jackson likely starts at the guard spot, a confident scorer who stepped up and filled a larger role while Leonard and George were out.
What to do with that other wing spot is where the versatility of this group comes into play. Nic Batum is the most natural ball-mover, a solid defender who knocks down open shots and who understands his role down to a T. Robert Covington is a solid on-ball defender but a tremendous helper; his shot was on after being acquired by the Clippers last year as he made 45% of his 3-pointers. If shooting in high volume is what they’re looking for, maybe they go for a smaller wing with molten scoring ability like Norman Powell, or a true shooting specialist in Luke Kennard.
Powell and Kennard both make sense to me coming off the bench, serving as two prongs next to John Wall in the second unit. Wall’s health and impact is a bit of an unknown coming into the season, and we certainly don’t expect him to be an All-Star again. That said, his playstyle has typically been best when surrounded with shooting. Powell and Kennard at the 2 and 3 next to him would really maximize that ability, while one of Batum or Covington also scores some minutes at the 4.
These Clippers are mightily deep. Marcus Morris and Covington can both slide into the small-ball 5 for moments: Morris got 70% of his playoff minutes at the 5 last year, according to basketball-reference, while Covington has filled that role before for the Houston Rockets. They don’t have a true 5-man in their second unit, something we think they’ll bring in during the season. Maybe Moses Brown impresses enough on his two-way deal to claim that spot.
Lue can dip deeper into his bench throughout the regular season to get some young guys a decent amount of seasoning. Brandon Boston Jr. showed some legitimate flashes last year as a rookie, and getting him some spot minutes here and there could net the Clippers a great long-term asset. Terrance Mann has made shots at a mercurial pace before and is instant offense; he’s still somehow only 26. Jason Preston missed all of last year due to injury and could be their third-string point guard to take over with the pick-and-roll.
The point here is that the Clippers have a ton of depth and options. Their head coach Ty Lue can shred teams in the playoffs, and in the regular season, by hitting the right buttons and tinkering with his rotation. They stretched out the Utah Jazz and tortured Rudy Gobert in a playoff series, have guarded bigs effectively, and know how to get their superstars touches while keeping the spacing around them.
We really believe in this group… on paper. So much of their success is going to come down to health of their stars and no major dropoffs from some of their veteran role players. If everybody stays on their current pace, the Clippers are tailor-made for postseason success and a run at an NBA title.
Five Burning Questions
Will this team be able to stay healthy throughout the regular season?
How does John Wall look, and can he really help this team in the playoffs?
How does Ty Lue construct his starting and closing lineups throughout the regular season?
Do they need to acquire another big man in-season to defend some of the best bigs in the West?
Will either George or Leonard make first-team All-NBA?
Golden State Warriors
Head coach: Steve Kerr, 9th year (429-200 record)
2021-22 Record: 46-36
Vegas Line: 52.5 wins
Our Projection: 57-25, 1st in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 8th
Def. Rating: 2nd
Phew, buddy. I don’t recall a time when the defending champions experienced basically zero roster turnover and faced as many questions entering the season as the Warriors have. Facing a massive luxury tax bill next year (anticipated to be upwards of $450 million) after the extensions of Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole, one has to wonder what that means for Draymond Green. If this is Green’s last year in Golden State (influenced by his contract situation, age, his punch to Poole, or all the above), it truly will be the beginning of the end of the dynasty as we’ve known it.
Despite the training camp drama around Green, we don’t have any reason at this point in time to doubt that the Warriors will right the ship under the guidance of Steve Kerr. He’s one of the best out there at managing interpersonal conflict and keeping his group bought in. Plus, he still has several of the best shooters in the game in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole.
Those three, along with Draymond Green and All-Star Andrew Wiggins, give the Warriors the most vaunted death lineup in all the game right now, as it’s fantastic on both ends of the floor. Starter Kevon Looney sets the tone with his lunch pale approach as a big man, doing all the dirty work on the glass and defensive end, and is good enough to be on the court in end-game situations. Who sits of the other five is always up for debate.
The room for upside for this Warriors group rests with three young players they’ve drafted during their not-so-great moments before winning last year’s title. Moses Moody has proven throughout Summer League and the preseason that he’s capable of handling rotation minutes. He’s a competent defender with great length, a really good spot-up threat, and has gained weight to fill out his frame. Now in his third season, the Dubs switching scheme and the movement-based offense will seem comfortable to him, meaning he can become a dependable cog in the rotation if Kerr chooses.
James Wiseman has barely played through his first two seasons due to injury, and the flashes he’s shown while playing are hit-or-miss. He certainly isn’t polished as a rim protector and isn’t the same type of screener or dirty work guy that Looney is. But Wiseman, when healthy, brings a different dynamic to their offense as a true lob threat out of the pick-and-roll. We believe Wiseman can shoot the ball a bit, but his primary role and spot he’s placed in to maximize his strengths is as a screen-and-roll big. On second units, in particular, where Poole is the main threat, Wiseman can excel here.
But of the three young guys, none has a higher ceiling for impact than Jonathan Kuminga. A bowling ball athlete who looks the part, Kuminga is a strong finisher and a really good cutter. He combines defensive size with offensive intrigue; he’s a big driver and slasher that isn’t afraid to shoot either. If Kuminga can find some semblance of consistency in his game, he can be an above-the-rim element on a roster that’s fairly thin on them.
Losing Gary Payton II hurts a bit for their depth on the defensive end. Kuminga and Moody can step up a bit there, while Donte DiVincenzo was a shrewd signing; he’s solid on defense and packs more of an offensive punch than GP2. JaMychal Green is a really good backup 5 and insurance plan if Wiseman isn’t ready, while Andre Iguodala is waiting in the wings for the playoffs. Oh yeah, and Patrick Baldwin Jr. has looked like something during the preseason.
Frankly, there’s no reason to really doubt the Warriors as preseason title favorites. Sure, the Draymond drama has been exhausting, but it doesn’t feel like the Warriors are going to let it derail their hopes of a repeat season. Sprinkle in enough young guys chomping at the bit to prove themselves and the Dubs will have enough motivation to get through the regular season on a high level and secure one of the top seeds in the Western Conference.
Five Burning Questions
Will there be any fallout from the Draymond Green punch that spills into the regular season?
Do the young guys take another step forward and become mainstays in the rotation?
Will the Warriors care about securing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs?
Does Poole continue to come off the bench?
Can they possibly enter next season with such a monstrous luxury tax bill?