NBA Season Preview: Southwest Division
The Grizzlies and Mavericks are hoping to capitalize off great seasons, while the Pelicans hope to join them as a playoff mainstay. Get to know the five teams in the Southwest Division
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. We finally had a real offseason this summer, resulting in a few seismic shifts for franchises. Rudy Gobert is in Minnesota, Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland, Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, and a ton of teams are banking on getting back to health atop the crowded Western Conference. Looming for rebuilding teams is the threat of a historic top of the draft featuring Victor Wembanyama and a potential race to the bottom.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2022-23 NBA season.
We start our season preview series by looking at the NBA’s Southwest Division. There are two teams still in early stages of a rebuild here in Houston and San Antonio. What we watch for from those two is different than the other three, all of whom are dark horse contenders in the Western Conference. While the Mavericks, Pelicans and Grizzlies all have unique depth and All-Star focal points, they also all have important questions to answer about how they win games in the playoffs.
San Antonio Spurs
Head coach: Gregg Popovich, 25th year (1,344-701)
2021-22 Record: 34-48
Vegas Line: 22.5 wins
Our Projection: 16-66, 15th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 30th
Def. Rating: 27th
After a few seasons of clinging onto the play-in game and the tail end of the Western Conference playoff picture, RC Buford and Gregg Popovich decided to hit the reset button. They traded their best player, Dejounte Murray, this summer and enter this year with 10 players with 3 or fewer NBA seasons under their belt. The youth movement is on: three first-round picks enter the fray (Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley, Malaki Branham), second-year guard Josh Primo is ready to expand his role, and guys like Devin Vassell and Tre Jones are hoping to have the ball in their hands a lot more moving forward.
There are good young pieces in San Antonio, without a doubt. Vassell has long been one of our favorite young players. He’s a wiry defender with a smooth jump shot and flashes of legitimate pull-up scoring. Where we get a little pessimistic is in seeing him transition towards a top-two option on an NBA team. Tre Jones is a cerebral passer and strong on-ball defender, but he’s small and not switchable, a main reason he fell to the second round in the 2020 NBA Draft. Even Keldon Johnson, coming off a really strong year as a mismatch wing/ forward, doesn’t strike me as a top option. These Spurs are really going to struggle to score the ball.
That’s where Primo, Wesley and Branham come in. Those three are the most wired to score on the roster, but all are teenagers with minimal (if any) NBA experience. Primo might be the most dynamic to score, with a quick first step and smooth jumper from anywhere on the floor. He’s got some efficiency concerns but is also the best passer of the group. We can see a world where he’s the guy that emerges by the end of the season as their top option. Wesley is too erratic and inconsistent to be counted on; he especially needs to overhaul a few pieces of his shooting mechanics. As for Branham, a mid-range bucket who loves physicality more than separation, the long grind of a first NBA season and the added athleticism of everyone he goes against make it hard to depend on him thriving if he’s given minutes.
Down low, the Spurs have one of the most underrated veterans in the league: Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl is on an expiring contract and turns 27 this month. He can be the one presence to keep the Spurs in games, scoring on the blocks and protecting the rim on defense. Or he can be their trade bait, adding a few more draft picks or young assets mid-season. The Spurs are positioning themselves to be a salary dump location, too. Between now and next June, this franchise could add several more young assets and future picks to augment the rebuild.
The race is on for Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, and the Spurs are clearly invested in joining that hunt. However, this season can still be deemed a success regardless of how the lottery balls shake out. They need to figure out what type of roster/ team they want to build, as well as which young players will be part of it. There is enough length and defensive activity from Vassell, Keldon and Sochan to envision this becoming a super-switchy unit long-term. There are also worlds where guys like Primo and Jones step up enough to prove that they need consistent minutes on a good team. The Spurs will be bad this year, but that’s okay. They just need the young guys to show progress and to figure out what they have so the next few offseasons become much clearer.
Five Burning Questions
Who leads this team in scoring this year?
Does one guy emerge to become a star-type player that’s already on the roster?
What can we expect from Josh Primo in year two?
Does Jakob Poeltl finish the season in San Antonio, and if not, what do they get in return?
Do any rookies make an impact right away?
Houston Rockets
Head coach: Stephen Silas, 3rd year (37-117 record)
2021-22 Record: 20-62
Vegas Line: 23.5 wins
Our Projection: 28-54, 12th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 23rd
Def. Rating: 24th
It feels safe to call this year three of the Rockets rebuild project. Through two years, they have some intriguing young players to show for it: Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, TyTy Washington, Kevin Porter Jr., Usman Garuba, and Josh Christopher. Not all those players will get heavy minutes this season, nor will they fit together long-term. There are still some fit questions to unpack in Houston, particularly on the defensive end. Still, the amount of quality players in town leads me to believe the Rockets are clearly on the up and up.
Everything starts with Jalen Green and his ability to abscond quickly from trigger-happy gunner to legitimate offensive engine. It’s worth remembering how insane he was over the final 9 games last year: 28.1 points, 43% shooting from 3 on over 10 shots a game, 2.4 assists and only 1.6 turnovers. He’s a lightning-quick scorer, and advances to his playmaking ability and consistency can make him prove he’s the true #1 option for the team long-term.
We love the fit of him and Jabari Smith, too. Smith is a shooting 4-man with good defensive traits, consistent effort and playbook versatility. While we don’t see Smith evolving into an off-the-dribble threat or a top option in the half-court, he’s exactly the right shooting piece to help spread the floor for Green and a good enough (and scheme versatile) defender to play alongside him long-term. A really good one-two punch.
The rest of the pieces, and how they fit, make it hard to put together four-man lineups without many flaws. Alperen Sengun is probably the most fun player on the team as a ballsy passer and high post hub. Running the offense through him at the blocks, elbows and top of the key alleviates some of the erratic nature to Green’s arsenal and allows Jabari to be more of a shooter and cutter. However, the backcourt tandem of Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are pretty reliant on touches, so a more motion-styled approach with Sengun could be counterintuitive. That disharmony would be more palatable to work through if Sengun didn’t have major defensive concerns.
Those issues pop up all over the place. Tari Eason playing the 3 seems like a foregone conclusion after seeing his production this preseason. Does that make it nearly impossible to see some three-guard lineups that feature Green, Porter and another shooter? We’re a year into the Garuba and Sengun experience and we’ve still not seen how or if they can play together. Garuba is a strange fit on this team and, overall, a prospect we like a great deal.
The veterans on this team won’t impede on the need to figure out these decisions, though it is important they get some run. Mainly, Eric Gordon, auditioning for a midseason trade and a smart floor spacer to boot. The Rockets want to learn how to win games now, so having a rotation completely bereft of experience doesn’t jive with that.
Some small personnel issues are popping up as well. TyTy Washington, a much better juxtaposition to what Green and KPJ already offer, should supplant Josh Christopher for the third guard spot. What does that mean for Christopher long-term (as well as Daishen Nix)? The emergence of Eason early on squeezes Jae’Sean Tate for minutes, furthering the trickle-down to a guy like KJ Martin, who has already reportedly requested a trade this summer.
I think this Rockets team has enough offensive firepower to succeed with the pieces they have long-term. Green can be a top option, Smith an elite team shooter, Sengun a confident and unique piece, and Porter wired for offense. My questions come with rotational fit and defensive impact. Playing Sengun at the 5 automatically raises question marks about defensive competency, and guys like Green and Porter have a ways to go on that end. Sure, Eason and Smith are solid, but they’re both rookies and have a lot to prove. We expect the Rockets to be just good enough to avoid the NBA’s basement this year, but not good enough to emerge as a play-in contender.
Five Burning Questions
Does Jalen Green take the next step toward superstardom?
How does the frontcourt rotation get sorted long-term?
Is this defense a total disaster or can they schematically cobble it together?
Can Kevin Porter Jr. prove he’s the starting point guard long-term?
Is there a trade brewing for Eric Gordon or Derrick Favors?
New Orleans Pelicans
Head coach: Willie Green, 2nd year (36-46 record)
2021-22 Record: 36-46
Vegas Line: 45.5 wins
Our Projection: 46-36, 8th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 12th
Def. Rating: 17th
The kids are calling him ‘Zion 2.0’ based on his slimmed-down physique, apparent health and long-awaited return to an NBA court. While a new moniker isn’t a big deal, I still think the vast majority of folks are forgetting just how dominant Zion 1.0 was when healthy. Adding that to a feisty playoff team from a season ago could fast-track the Pelicans to stardom.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. Reincorporating a player like Williamson takes an adjustment from everyone since he’s so unique, ball-dominant at stops and doesn’t shoot it from deep. Head coach Willie Green has to be careful with his lineups (we’ll get to that later). CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, both of whom are borderline All-Stars as it is, will likely cede some touches. Playing multiple bigs like Jaxson Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas (as the Pels did to start games in the playoffs last year) cannot work with Zion. There’s a lot to reconsider.
Still, the ceiling is clearly heightened by playing through the league’s most unique star. New Orleans can find ways to be competent on defense around Zion, thanks mostly to their last three major rookies: Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. All three have incredibly high defensive potential, long arms and positional versatility. Sprinkle in the length of Ingram and there are four guys here that can defend wings at a high enough level to strategically place Zion on the least-important matchup.
Figuring out the rotation at the 4 and 5 will be crucial for Willie Green early. Valanciunas and Hayes both deserve some minutes, as does the stretch option in their frontcourt Larry Nance Jr. Zion fits best next to shooting; playing McCollum, Ingram and Murphy 1 thru 3 could allow the Pels to get away with Zion and a non-shooting big, though that has trickle-down impacts. Herb Jones, their best individual defender, is off the floor in those minutes, for example.
We’re curious to see if Green ever plays Zion at the 5 and super-spreads the floor with length and/or shooting. There’s just so much depth in New Orleans now, with guys like Devonte Graham, Jose Alvarado and Naji Marshall all being good enough to crack the regular rotation. It’s a treasure trove of options for Green, and the regular season should serve as a playground to figure out what buttons are best to press and when to hit each.
Playing through those new moments could lead to a few growing pains during the regular season, but we see this team winning games between now and April 15th thanks to their depth and relative star power. They have three legitimate All-Star candidates and no shortage of specialty role players. They can sustain one injury and still remain a top-eight team in the Western Conference. I’m not sure if I see them avoiding the play-in game this year, but very well could with another leap from their young guys or consistent contributions from Dyson Daniels.
The success of this group really does come down to Zion Williamson and Willie Green. Zion has to stay healthy and provide more effort on the defensive end of the floor. He’s too talented of a scorer and physical specimen to ever take out in key moments, so he cannot give points back on the other end — especially this deep into his career. Green has to construct rotations and schematics to most properly blanket Zion and mitigate some of that damage. The puzzle pieces are there to make it work, and if Willie proved anything in his first year on the job, it’s that he is really shrewd at maximizing whatever he is given.
Five Burning Questions
Will Zion stay healthy all season?
Is there another leap forward coming from Trey Murphy, Jaxson Hayes, or Herb Jones?
What lineups does Willie Green use to finish games?
Can Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum put up legitimate All-Star bids?
Can this be the surprise team in the West to make a leap into the top tier of contenders?
Dallas Mavericks
Head coach: Jason Kidd, 2nd year (52-30 record)
2021-22 Record: 52-30
Vegas Line: 48.5 wins
Our Projection: 47-35, 7th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 18th
Def. Rating: 10th
They say to keep your words soft and sweet because you may have to eat them. Well, I should’ve done that a year ago, and here I am ready to eat my words. Jason Kidd was really good for this Dallas Mavericks group last year. He didn’t inhibit Luka Doncic and helped construct a really good defense made up of try-hard role players. The formula helped the Mavericks breeze into the Western Conference Finals before getting blown out by the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. Moving on from Porzingis and embracing a more physical, tough brand of basketball gave them a real identity.
Let’s see if I can learn my lesson from last year, because boy am I tempted to throw some shade at the Mavericks’ summer. Jalen Brunson left for New York, a move many saw coming. What was surprising was Dallas not replacing him with anyone via trade or free agency. They drafted Jaden Hardy, my sweet sweet boy who I believe is the very definition of a steal, though counting on a rookie as a team with championship aspirations makes little sense to me.
The high-profile guy Dallas brought in this summer was Christian Wood, an offensive-minded big man who is rumored to be moving to the second unit. Wood’s personality is strong and his leash needs to be long to maximize what he brings. I think it’s unfair to call him a non-winning player, but he is a clear jive with the inherent personality of the rest of this roster. Perhaps there is a mid-season move to be made to provide more balance to their frontcourt rotation, where Wood, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, and JaVale McGree are all tightly bunched for minutes.
Still, Dallas is the Luka show, and he’s proven year after year that no amount of offensive lifting is too great for him. He’s efficient, handles any type of defense, scores consistently and makes plays for others. The formula to winning with him can be simple on the wings and in the backcourt: one additional handler to alleviate some pressure and a ton of 3-point shooters.
Dallas has pieces to check each box. They have another handler in Spencer Dinwiddie, coming off a big postseason and really finding his groove in Dallas. Hardy could emerge as another. They have a few shooters, like Hardaway and Reggie Bullock. Then there are the defensive specialists: Dorian Finney-Smith, Frank Ntilikina, maybe even Josh Green belongs here. Kidd has options to construct lineups around Luka in ways that keep shooting, playmaking and defense all on the floor.
Despite Doncic’s clear elevation of role players, this group feels slightly undertalented to be considered a legitimate contender. Nobody else will sniff All-Star consideration this year. They’re one guard short of being able to survive non-Luka minutes. There are questions with how to sort out the rotation in the frontcourt, as well as whether to play a little bigger (with Kleber or Wood at the 4) or smaller (with Finney-Smith). Kidd has earned my trust to a large extent, and Doncic should be a frontrunner for MVP this year. A repeat of postseason success to the Western Conference Finals feels a bit hard to count on, though.
Five Burning Questions
Can the Mavericks replace the production from Jalen Brunson internally?
How does Jason Kidd sort through the frontcourt rotation with Christian Wood?
Will a healthy Tim Hardaway Jr. be their most important player next to Luka?
Who will emerge as the Mavs’ third ball handler in the rotation?
Does Luka Doncic being in shape early in the year provide a different playoff outcome for Dallas?
Memphis Grizzlies
Head coach: Taylor Jenkins, 4th year (128-99 record)
2021-22 Record: 56-26
Vegas Line: 49.5 wins
Our Projection: 51-31, 4th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 13th
Def. Rating: 7th
Identity and synergy are buzzwords we use to describe the Memphis Grizzlies. They know who they are and what they value. They bring in good guys, competitors with a chip on their shoulder, and always get guys better during the first two or three seasons of their career. That allows them to constantly win regular season games; their locker room and culture create an effort-based environment that allows them to maximize their gifts.
The Grizzlies won 56 games last year with a young roster and somehow got younger this year. Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton are gone, replaced by five rookies: first-round picks Jake LaRavia and David Roddy, second-rounders Vince Williams and Kennedy Chandler, and UDFA Kenneth Lofton Jr. You rarely see a team finish in the top two in the conference and get younger.
If the pattern of success they’ve had with young players holds, we’ll see a few leaps forward this season. Ziaire Williams is atop our list of breakout candidates. He started plenty of games as a rookie, is a long and wiry defender, and a competent handler/ creator next to Ja Morant. Our guess is that Williams, Desmond Bane and Ja Morant start at the 1 thru 3 spots, pushing Dillon Brooks to the bench where he can be more of his consciousless self.
The elephant in the room is the injury to Jaren Jackson Jr. to start the season. He is their entire defensive identity, an elite switching big who plays the 4 and 5 with ease. Filling in for him appears to be second-year pro Santi Aldama. Aldama didn’t log many minutes last year but there’s great buzz surrounding him in camp. The Grizz have depth in their frontcourt of defensive-first guys (Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman), though Aldama is the most similar to Jackson stylistically. That dropoff could cost them some games early on, impacting their seeding late in the year.
The real juice to this team comes from Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, though. Both are high-caliber scorers who complement each other well. Bane took a massive step forward last year and is still underrated as a passer and scorer. Role players like Jon Konchar and Tyus Jones know where and how to help this team, providing depth and injury insurance. A year ago, the Grizzlies were able to win games when Morant was out of the lineup, a testament to their system and the depth they already have.
Still, this many rookies and second-year guys on a team with hopes of contending for a championship is rarely seen. They have salary-matching pieces like Danny Green to be able to pull off a mid-season trade. This next statement isn’t a knock on the Grizzlies, just a point that needs to be made: the Western Conference looks really different now than it did a season ago. The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets are fully healthy. The Timberwolves have multiple All-Stars and are a new challenge. New Orleans could emerge, and the Warriors and Suns are as good as they’ve been. The Grizzlies could very well continue to win a ton of regular season games and finish top-three in the West yet again.
Winning postseason games is different. Talent tends to win out, and perhaps this season is the time when Zach Kleiman and the front office makes the decision to consolidate some of their young talent to bring in the right-fitting All-Star that comes available. The last few years have been miraculous from this organization from top to bottom, completely redefining the expectations others have for them. As those expectations continue to climb, the front office has to prioritize doing whatever they can to get over the hump in the West and toppling teams like the Warriors, Clippers and Suns.
Five Burning Questions
Does the Jaren Jackson Jr. injury influence their regular season finish?
Will the league finally see how good Desmond Bane really is?
How do the Grizzlies maximize the Dillon Brooks impact in their rotation while still developing their younger wings?
Which rookie or second-year player takes the next giant leap?
Is there a consolidation trade in the works to make them more competitive in the postseason?