NCAA Tournament Scouting Preview: West Region
Gonzaga and Duke headline a region that NBA teams with high draft picks will be watching closely
It’s tourney time!
All the college basketball that we watch from a scouting perspective tends to pay off a bit this time of year, as filling out a bracket is more about educated guesses than blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. There’s little proof that pays off in terms of the accuracy of our picks, but it at least allows us to keep the analytical portion of our brain on.
From a scouting perspective, we’ll be watching these games to see how some of the best players in the nation perform under the brightest lights. Who handles the spotlight well? Which teams trip up and cost their prospects some standing in draft circles? Who leads their group on an improbable run and rises up draft boards as a result? We are ready to overreact to specific matchups — despite doing our best to keep everything in perspective.
There’s a collision course brewing between Duke and Gonzaga, a rematch of November’s outstanding matchup featuring potential top picks Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren. Those two stand out as the only teams with major pro appeal for the 2022 NBA Draft, but this is a dangerous region that could easily slip up one of those behemoths. Intriguing names like Jalen Duren, JD Davison, Jaylin Williams and Max Christie all have final impressions to bestow upon scouts in a very important way and have the platform and captive audience to really gain some fans this week.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Pro Prospects: Chet Holmgren, Julian Strawther, Nolan Hickman, Drew Timme, Hunter Sallis, Andrew Nembhard, Anton Watson
A whopping seven NBA prospects reside in Spokane, a testament to what Mark Few has built there in terms of recruitment and development. The clear-cut number-one team in the nation, this could finally be the ‘Zags year. The offensive system and depth of talent they possess on that end always make them a tough team to stop. For the first time, a legitimate rim protector and defensive weapon like Holmgren could allow them to win a game that’s played in the 50s as well as the 80s.
Holmgren is the guy everyone needs to watch closely. Our top prospect in the class, Holmgren gets knocked for what he isn’t thanks to the slender frame. If he dominated college games based on his size and physical profile, we may agree with those critiques. But Chet’s dominance is all skill-based, and he’s shooting over 41% from 3 on the season. Wherever he goes and however he’s used, he’s going to produce and has a chance this March to solidify his stock atop the class.
The other six players are all future pros, but when they declare and where they wind up are far different than Holmgren’s star allure. Drew Timme, Chet’s interior partner-in-crime, is as polished of a post scorer as you’ll find. He’ll dominate teams on the block, but at 6’8” and without stretch or defensive impact, he isn’t really a guy high on our draft radar. Anton Watson, their backup big, is skilled and can step away from the basket, but doesn’t play enough of a role to garner 2022 consideration.
The two names for this year worth monitoring are Julian Strawther and Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard, the senior, is a really good creator at the point, has improved as a shooter and proved throughout his career he can operate out of the PNR. He’s a great target for teams as an undrafted free agent. Strawther is a 40% 3-point shooter with a big frame on the wing, solid athleticism and a smooth game. He’d make for a great second-round steal.
Speaking of smooth, Nolan Hickman is as natural as it gets at scoring the ball. Legitimate three-level exists and gets drowned out in their balanced scheme; if he would declare this year, he’d get a first-round grade from us as a “pre-draft” guy despite the limited role. Hunter Sallis is a name to watch as well; both get few bench minutes on such an experienced team, and with media timeouts seemingly every 30 seconds, don’t expect to see them too much.
16. Georgia State Panthers
Record: 18-10
Auto Bid: Sun Belt
Pro Prospects: None
8. Boise State Broncos
Pro Prospects: Emmanuel Akot, Tyson Degenhart
The Broncos are balanced at the top, and coach Leon Rice is one of the more unheralded offensive geniuses in college basketball. They’ve been denying passes on the perimeter, so the lack of guard play at Memphis could really frustrate their ability to involve Jalen Duren. Broncos freshman Tyson Degenhart has a ton of upside and will take the reigns next year, but he’s joined by three seniors who average double-digits.
The main guy to know is 6’8” Canadian Emmanuel Akot. The senior is a legitimate shooter and handler at his size; he shot 40% from 3 on the season and lead the team with 2.9 assists per game. He’s nowhere near draftable but with his size, skill and shot-making profiles he’s worth monitoring as he advances into the professional ranks.
9. Memphis Tigers
Pro Prospects: Jalen Duren, Josh Minott, Lester Quinones, Deandre Williams, Landers Nolley, Earl Timberlake, Emoni Bates
Since February 1st, the Tigers have boasted a top-ten offense and top-ten defense. The talent of this team is finally showing through, and it’s come while Jalen Duren has stepped into the spotlight and two younger players — Emoni Bates and Josh Minott — have taken a backseat. Penny Hardaway and Larry Brown are figuring this crew out, and now they’re a super dangerous group to go against. The season changed when point guard Alex Lomax came back from injury in mid-January and slid into the starting lineup. Since then, they’re 11-0 against teams not named SMU.
Duren is the youngest player in this draft class and is a top-ten talent. He’s getting better every day, impacts the game on both ends and will pop even more next to an NBA point guard. He can earn himself a ton of money by having a great March Madness and solidifying himself as a top-seven guy. The front half of the lottery is up for grabs, and Duren is poised to take one spot.
Minott and Bates are clear “go back to school” guys to me. Bates is all but out of the rotation and nowhere near ready for winning basketball. Minott has all the athletic tools but is supremely raw. He needs more seasoning. Both could show a flash or two and get scouts excited, but nothing substantial enough to swing the tide.
The rest of the team features really good collegiate role players. Quinones is a long, rangy guard shooter. Nolley can be a decent 3-and-D guy. Williams is a competitive rebounder and good passer — it’s nice to have a big next to Duren that can share it and is experienced (he’s 25 years old). Timberlake is a toolsy do-it-all guy who has embraced his role as an energy glue guy. Not a ton of talent here, but enough guys who can do one or two things well enough to get a look at the pros somewhere.
5. Connecticut Huskies
Pro Prospects: Jordan Hawkins, RJ Cole, Adama Sanogo, Andre Jackson
While head coach Dan Hurley blows a gasket nightly on the sidelines, these Huskies are a tremendously well-rounded group. We like a ton of guys as what we call “high-minor” prospects: players who aren’t really draftable or have standout skills but are just too good and intriguing to write off.
Hawkins, Cole and Sanogo highlight that group. Hawkins is a freshman with a bright future, both athletically and what he can do on defense. The shot falling helps him become a 2023 priority returner. Cole can score, Sanogo alters shots and has good touch on the inside, though neither are within draft range right now. Andre Jackson may be the best athlete in college basketball, and we keep waiting for him to turn into a basketball player. Storrs has to be the place for that to happen, not an NBA system. This team could go deep in the tournament: they are deep, balanced and intense. Nobody is within distance of getting on an NBA roster next year at this point.
12. New Mexico State Aggies
Record: 26-6
Auto Bid: WAC
Pro Prospects: None
4. Arkansas Razorbacks
Pro Prospects: Jaylin Williams, JD Notae
All aboard the Muss Bus! Eric Musselman has the Razorbacks peaking at the right time, making them a trendy selection to make a deep run in the tournament. They’re insanely good at pressuring on defense, feature four seniors and have one of the nation’s most unique bigs in Jaylin Williams at the center. While the Razorbacks don’t shoot it incredibly well, they really share it and are difficult to score on.
Let’s talk about Notae first. Averaging 18 per game, he’s exploded this year into a leadership role as a lead creator. The Jacksonville transfer is a thin 6’1” but plays his tail off and takes the big shots when they need them. He’s only 30% from 3 but seems to make big ones and has deep range. He’s the engine for them, and any team hoping to stop the Razorbacks needs to focus on him defensively. He should get some interest as an undrafted free agent next year.
Williams is the best charge-taker we’ve ever seen. It’s a niche skill but when combined with his 1.2 blocks per game, he’s an incredible collegiate rim protector. He’s a good scorer and exceptional passer. More than anything, he’s a fun and vibey prospect who is a jumper away from being a real NBA guy. He’ll likely return next year as the Muss Bus brings aboard the nation’s second-best recruiting class. If he declares, don’t be shocked if you hear his name called.
13. Vermont Catamounts
Record: 28-5
Auto Bid: America East
Pro Prospects: None
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
Pro Prospects: JD Davison, Jahvon Quinerly, Keon Ellis, Charles Bediako, Jaden Shackelford
What an up-and-down season it’s been for the Tide. They’ve risen towards the top of the SEC the last few years with lottery prospects and future NBA guys such as Kira Lewis Jr, Josh Primo and Herbert Jones. With all three gone and a less apparent crop of next-level prospects, the Tide have struggled. Still an NCAA Tournament team, they have solid guard play and a few shooters to establish the same identity, just are less impactful at achieving their desired result.
JD Davison has been a roller coaster all season. While flashes of athleticism are apparent, he hasn’t reliably hit a jumper since December and is one of the highest in turnover rate among pro prospects. He’ll get a lot out of returning to school and refining his craft.
Quinerly and Shackelford are collegiate mainstays and were better served as third options. They’re both really good and steady for what they do, though neither are going to take NBA players off the bounce. Ellis has his fans, too. He’s a 3-point specialist at 6’6” who only shoots 35.6% from deep. Not an NBA guy on our list right now — all three are workout and G-League guys at best. Quinerly, in particular, would do well overseas.
Lastly there’s Bediako, an intriguing long-term big man who needs to get better next year. He and Davison are the lifeblood of long-term promise in Tuscaloosa. This is not a team poised to make a run deep into March or host many NBA scouts with quality draft selections.
11. Rutgers Scarlet Knights/ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Rutgers pro prospects: Ron Harper Jr.
Notre Dame pro prospects: Blake Wesley
The 11 vs. 11 play-in game will provide a great opportunity for NBA scouts to see potential one-and-done Blake Wesley from Notre Dame at least one last time. Wesley is the best scorer and perhaps best defender on an offensively-talented, senior-laden Notre Dame squad. There are guys like Nate Laszewski and Prentiss Hubb, strong college players, who are borderline enough prospects to get a tryout somewhere, but everyone is here to see Wesley. He’s been pretty good over his last eight games, too: 16.5 PPG while shooting 40.5% from 3.
Wesley will go up against a talented defensive group in Rutgers, lead by Ron Harper Jr. A thick bowling ball of a wing, Harper is the team’s leading scorer while possessing some strong defensive talent. Harper has long been one of our favorite sleepers, a do-it-all type of guy who can guard multiple positions and mesh with an NBA team that just needs him to spot up from deep. While guys like Caleb McConnell (a really good defender who is just a half-step off being listed as a prospect here) will likely defend Wesley, Harper should be able to feast on the other end on a weak defensive group from South Bend.
Whoever the winner is here will face an Alabama team ripe for the picking and that is fairly thin of great defenders on the wing. This is an important play-in matchup as a result, and there’s a chance that the bracket draw does enough to either propel Wesley to declare and be a first-round lock or push RHJ into firmly draftable territory.
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pro Prospects: Terrence Shannon Jr., Kevin McCullar, Bryson Williams, Kevin Obanor
The Red Raiders do not have a prospect inside our top-100. They have only two double-digit scorers. What they do have is the nation’s toughest defense, a nine-man rotation of all juniors and seniors and size at every position. The smallest guy they play is 6’3”, and their aggressive defensive style can take the best teams out of their rhythm. This team competes and will be tough to bet against on the first weekend.
So what should NBA fans or scouts be looking for when watching the Red Raiders? First is an understanding of how they play, with their aggressive no-middle tactics. If there’s another pro prospect on the floor against them, the circumstances at play are drastically different than they will be in the NBA. Second is a look at trends: the guys they’ve won with in Lubbock rarely go on to do well in the pros. The principles and teaching points are so different and don’t prepare guys well for early-career success.
Next is a look at their top-four guys. Shannon was once thought of by many as an NBA prospect. He never got our attention and has moved into a reserve role with this group. He’s firmly outside our top-100 despite shooting 37% from 3 and legit athletic tools. McCullar and Williams are defensive prospects who can come in and lock down their man 1v1 at the next level. Both are under-the-radar names but should win over teams in workout settings with how hard they play. Williams shooting 40% from 3 on the season won’t hurt, either.
Kevin Obanor was the prized transfer of last year, as the pick-and-pop big man was huge for Oral Roberts in their Sweet Sixteen run. He’s a bit undersized for the pros but has some value and intrigue as a pick-and-pop hybrid 4 or 5. If he gets hot, he’ll be a sought-after workout guy as well.
14. Montana State Bobcats
Record: 27-7
Auto Bid: Big Sky
Pro Prospects: None
7. Michigan State Spartans
Pro Prospects: Max Christie, Gabe Brown, AJ Hoggard
Tom Izzo is a great coach in the month of March. This year’s team, for all the depth they have, lacks a top guy or a consistent offensive identity. Therein lies the problem for Izzo: he has a great 3-point shooting group but no clear alpha to take over games. There are six Spartans who average between six and twelve points.
The closest thing we’ve seen to “the” guy lately is AJ Hoggard, the sophomore point guard who leads the team in assists. He’s going to be good but doesn’t score it enough and needs Tyson Walker out of the way to run the show full-time. Gabe Brown is a toolsy wing and their official leading scorer. He’s got some pro potential but is a little stiff for a full-time 3. He’ll be a solid G-League threat.
Max Christie is the guy scouts are here for, and he’s been having such a poor February that it’s difficult to imagine him declaring for the draft. Down to 32.5% from 3 this year, he’s a shooting specialist really damaged by his last 14 games (25% from deep). He’s hit the freshman wall, and while he’s athletic and shows flashes off the bounce, you draft him for the shooting. He should come back to school, though an assertive finish to the season will go a long way in getting scouts excited for next year.
10. Davidson Wildcats
Pro Prospects: Hyunjung Lee
Bob McKillop is our favorite coach in the country. Full stop, being transparent, we love what he does and how he identifies talent. The Wildcats are an amazing offensive group that doesn’t ignore defense; on the contrary, they realize how crisp they must be on that end to win games. As a team, Davidson makes almost 39% of their 3-point attempts. They don’t force many turnovers but make relatively few mistakes and bank on outscoring teams from behind the arc.
The key to that run is Hyunjung Lee, the best mid-major prospect on our draft board. He’s an elite movement shooter with a smooth release, good size, high-IQ for how he gets defended and more competitive defense than he gets credit for. Lee is a top-40 guy to us and will do well in a shooting specialist role at the next level that is often reserved for guys like Garrison Matthews.
There’s another guy to know at Davidson, too: Foster Loyer. Loyer is their leading scorer as a Michigan State transfer, (oh the drama) is shooting 45% from 3 on six attempts per game and has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. Not really a pro prospect, but a lethal college player with a fascinating personal matchup.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Pro Prospects: Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Mark Williams, Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore
All the attention of this NCAA Tournament will be spent on Coach Krzyzewski, waiting to see if this can be his Cinderella sendoff with a championship run. From a talent perspective, this team certainly has the ability to get there. With potentially five first-rounders on the roster, the Blue Devils are skilled, superhumanly strong and athletic. They play a little too much “my turn, your turn” offense to really be the favorites, and spacing can be hard to come by with Banchero and Williams on the floor together.
Banchero highlights the group, with top pick potential and a polished mid-range game. NBA scouts will be watching for the consistency of his play. One piece missing from his arsenal is the desire to take over games. In the ACC Championship against Virginia Tech, he was a little passive down the stretch when the Dukies were down double-digits and needed someone to vault them back.
Griffin was the guy who wasn’t shy about pulling during that stretch. His draft range is somewhat wide right now due to an inconsistent volume all season and years of injuries casting doubt on his functional athleticism. Without a doubt, Griffin can shoot the ball and has top-five upside in this class. A dud of a tournament could push him back into the late teens.
Big man Mark Williams is a safe bet to be a first-rounder due to his athleticism and rim protection. He fits a classic NBA mold and has a high motor on the floor. Trevor Keels can be the forgotten man, but with a strong frame at 6’4” and shooting upside, he’s a prospect to know. We haven’t been really high on him, but he has his fans and is considered by many to be a first-rounder. The impact there really depends on the consistency of his shooting.
Wendell Moore fills in the gaps: this has been his best year by far at Duke, and a loud ACC Tournament (18 PTS, 5 REB, 3.7 AST, 2.0 BLK) has him back within first-round striking distance. All these Duke guys are physical and can defend. They switch a lot around Williams, then play deliberately to attack the mismatches most in their favor. It’s an NBA-esque style that creates a nice translation to how these guys will play at the next level.
15. Cal State Fullerton Titans
Record: 21-10
Auto Bid: Big West
Pro Prospects: None
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