NCAA Tournament Scouting Preview: Midwest Region
Four top teams with top-ten hopefuls square off in this star-studded region of the bracket
It’s tourney time!
All the college basketball that we watch from a scouting perspective tends to pay off a bit this time of year, as filling out a bracket is more about educated guesses than blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. There’s little proof that pays off in terms of the accuracy of our picks, but it at least allows us to keep the analytical portion of our brain on.
From a scouting perspective, we’ll be watching these games to see how some of the best players in the nation perform under the brightest lights. Who handles the spotlight well? Which teams trip up and cost their prospects some standing in draft circles? Who leads their group on an improbable run and rises up draft boards as a result? We are ready to overreact to specific matchups — despite doing our best to keep everything in perspective.
The Midwest holds four top teams with four legitimate top-ten prospects: Ochai Agbaji of Kansas, Jabari Smith of Auburn, Johnny Davis of Wisconsin and Keegan Murray of Iowa. Scouts will salivate about the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight matchups that could come if all the top teams advance. A stingy 4-seed in Providence, plus other prospects like Tari Eason and Isaiah Mobley, could play spoiler to those hopes before the first weekend is over.
1. Kansas Jayhawks
Pro Prospects: Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson
This isn’t the Bill Self Kansas team we’re used to. Typically dominant defensively (especially out of the pick-and-roll) with athleticism everywhere and good guard play, this year’s iteration of the Jayhawks is about their size and balance. Anchored down low by the big man David McCormack, the Jayhawks play big 2 thru 4 with Agbaji, Braun and Wilson. All have blossomed into good shooters and high-IQ, selfless team players. Their offense is incredibly efficient, but teams who have success against them relentlessly crash the offensive glass.
Agbaji has gotten better every year in college. Now as a senior, he’s looking for his swansong before he departs for the NBA as a potential lottery pick. He’s incredibly consistent as a shooter, a really good 3-and-D option and has more athleticism than we typically see from that role — he bangs home at least one lob slam a night. There’s a chance Braun also goes in the first, though at the tail end. He’s the consummate glue guy, a silent assassin who is a really good passer on the wing and another underrated athlete.
The late-season play of Jalen Wilson (13 PTS, 7 REB, 54% FG since Feb. 1st) has gotten us excited about him once again. A big wing who is somewhat pigeonholed at the 4 in the NBA, Wilson is producing and showing a little more defensive grit than we remember from him. He was on our top-75 list before the draft last season and could wind up there if he declares. Some poor off-court decisions cost him the start to the season, but he’s a vital part to what they do on the floor and that should show in the tournament.
16. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Record: 23-11
Auto Bid: Southland
Pro Prospects: None
16. Texas Southern Tigers
Record: 18-12
Auto Bid: SWAC
Pro Prospects: None
8. San Diego State Aztecs
Pro Prospects: Matt Bradley
Brian Dutcher has taken the baton from Steve Fischer and kept the Aztecs as the class of the Mountain West. The key to staying there this year was securing Cal transfer Matt Bradley in the portal. Bradley is a bowling ball of a wing who is incredibly effective on defense. He leads the team with 17 PPG and will be one of the better NCAA Tournament players you’ve never heard of.
What does Bradley look like as a pro? A sturdy G-League guy, but he’s shooting better than 40% from 3 on the season and could have room for NBA potential if those numbers stay high with a G-League team. He’s a priority signing for Summer League.
9. Creighton Blue Jays
Pro Prospects: Arthur Kaluma, Ryan Kalkbrenner
Coach McDermott is a hell of a coach. This was supposed to be a down year for the Blue Jays after losing so much pro talent over the last few years. Ryan Hawkins and Alex O’Connell are the lone seniors, while three freshmen and a skinny sophomore big get the rest of the meaningful minutes. These Blue Jays have gotten better rapidly throughout the season, earning their way to the Big East Championship game and an at-large berth to the Big Dance.
None of these guys are ready to go this year. Ryan Nembhard is a really heady point guard who can shoot and might be the best player in his family, but he’s out with a knee injury. Kalkbrenner is a legitimate shot blocker at the 5 with super long arms and decent mobility. His defensive ceiling is pretty high. Kaluma is the best of the group in terms of pro potential. Another year in Creighton will turn him into a monster frontcourt swingman, especially if he shoots it well. Keep an eye on this Creighton team long-term. 2022 may not be their year, but next year is looking mighty good in terms of wins and draft prospects.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Pro Prospects: Keegan Murray, Kris Murray
The Fran McCaffrey offensive train keeps moving. Last year it was Joe Wieskamp and Luka Garza killing teams, with Garza’s brutal inside game collapsing defenses and Wieskamp killing teams from deep. The role players at Iowa always shoot, making them impossible to guard. This year’s iteration features the same 3-point shooting but a different focal point in Keegan Murray.
Murray is the most consistent offensive producer in the country. He does so with such little flash and fanfare that he’s easy to overlook, but there isn’t a hole in his game right now. He shoots it, can pick-and-pop, drill 3-pointers off the bounce, has some mid-range touch, is a contact magnet, mismatch posts, finishes everything near the rim, glides up the floor in transition, defends multiple spots and is very agile laterally. He’ll defend the 4 at the next level and use his inside-outside offense to exploit matchups differently. We’d love to see him as a small-ball 5 with the right team, too — he has solid shot-blocking instincts. While Keegan will face double-teams, his passing is what could solidify him as a top-eight pick in the draft.
His twin brother Kris is turning into a solid offensive producer in his own right. The same frame and athletic gifts that Keegan has make Kris appealing, and the Hawkeyes are 5-1 when he scores 15 or more. He’s not really a first-round guy per se, but in the right situation, he can be draftable if he chooses to follow his brother to the pros.
Iowa is a top-five offensive group in the nation. They’re dangerous, and the versatility of Murray’s scoring makes it really hard to take everything away. You almost have to either outscore them or pray they miss a bunch of open ones if you’re going to take them down.
12. Richmond Spiders
Pro Prospects: Tyler Burton
The spoilers for some bubble teams, Richmond did a fantastic job running through the Atlantic-10 Tournament to punch their berth to the big dance. Thankfully, that gives scouts one more opportunity to see a fringe name for 2022 in Tyler Burton operate on a grand stage. The 6’7” junior can really shoot it, has a good frame and solid athleticism to be a potential steal as a 3-and-D wing. He’s more of a late-2nd round to undrafted type of guy, but his intangibles and measurables will help him turn heads in a combine setting.
The Spiders are middle-of-the-road in almost every statistical category, though their Princeton system makes them a challenge to guard. Big man Grant Golden operates out of the high post, steal-maven Jacob Gilyard is a tiny, disruptive guard. This will be a fun matchup between two teams with huge offensive potential, and one where Burton should catch some eyes while sharing the floor with Keegan Murray.
4. Providence Friars
Pro Prospects: AJ Reeves
Are the Friars for real? With Ed Cooley at the helm, they won’t be a team that beats themselves. With a transformed and movement-based offense, Providence has scored enough to go with their typically stingy defense that they won the Big East outright. They won 25 games during the regular season and lost only 5 — virtually no teams accomplish that without a future NBA player, as we’ve written about before.
If we had to pick one guy, we’d change our vote from when this was written to AJ Reeves. While the numbers aren’t overwhelming, he’s a shooting specialist who is really good on the move. The entire offense centers around his movements. He’s growing on us and should get some workouts when all is said and done.
The rest of the group? Really good college players. Al Durham can score it, Nate Watson is a beast on the blocks, Jared Bynum is a good small guard and Nate Horchler shoots it at the 4. Balance, defense and grit. The Friars are a fun group for college fans and one that NBA scouts and draft-watchers can safely avoid.
13. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Record: 30-4
Auto Bid: Summit
Pro Prospects: Baylor Scheierman
6’6” shooter Baylor Scheierman is the latest mid-major star to play for the Jackrabbits. A sniper of the highest order, Scheierman shot 47% from 3 this year on 5 attempts per game, insane value at that volume. He’ll be able to do more in the Summit League than against other pros or great athletes, so the NCAA Tournament is actually a pretty solid test for him. The Jackrabbits have legitimate sleeper potential to be a Cinderella, so we could get a decent sample for Scheierman. He’s a borderline draftable guy but will stick somewhere if he declares and wants to go pro. That shot is simply too nice.
6. LSU Tigers
Pro Prospects: Tari Eason, Alex Fudge, Efton Reid, Brandon Murray, Darius Days, Xavier Pinson, Eric Gaines, Mwani Wilkinson
Eight pro prospects? In Baton Rouge? Perhaps that’s why the FBI was looking at Will Wade, and why the administration recently fired their head coach just days before the NCAA Tournament. Something fishy has been brewing at LSU for years.
Regardless, the Tigers are a talented group, and their collective size and athleticism make them a great defensive unit. Central to that identity is Tari Eason, a 6’8” athlete who guards 1 thru 5, slashes to the rim, dunks on everyone, lives in transition and has started to knock down his 3-pointers. The shooting development, as well as increased assertiveness to live at the free throw line, have turned Eason from a long-term project with upside into an actual lottery prospect. He’s got holes in his game to be sure — left-hand driving and shooting off the bounce chiefly among them. But he puts his stamp on every game he’s in and might be the best individual defender in college basketball.
Seniors Darius Days and Xavier Pinson are departing LSU after the season for the pros. Days is a real stretch-4; we liked him a lot a season ago and think he’s one of those guys who is good enough to note but not great enough to draft. Pinson is likely headed for a pro league across the pond.
The rest of the group are young guys who we like for flashes but don’t see enough from consistently. Murray can really score it, and at 6’5” he could be a first-round name to target in 2023. 6’11” Efton Reid and 6’8” Alex Fudge have every natural tool to work with and should be highly sought-after prospects for the next draft cycle. Sophomores Gaines and Wilkinson struggled with consistency this year and need another go-’round before really proving their worth as pros.
11. Iowa State Cyclones
Pro Prospects: Tyrese Hunter, Izaiah Brockington
A 12-0 start in TJ Otzelberger’s first season thrust the Cyclones into the national spotlight. Wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton and Iowa in that streak solidified them as legit, especially since three of the four were double-digit victories. The Big Twelve humbled them quickly; they’re 8-12 since and really struggling to score it. Freshman point guard Tyrese Hunter is their guy who sets the table for everyone, though the lack of shooting is a big negative on him. Real diehards will want to know Izaiah Brockington, the Penn State transfer who leads them averaging 17 and 7. Those two have very little help, only getting consistent offense from shooting specialist Caleb Grill. We were surprised they even made it into the field so cleanly and avoided a play-in matchup.
3. Wisconsin Badgers
Pro Prospects: Johnny Davis
Last year felt like the big chance for Wisconsin. With six seniors in their top-eight, they didn’t live up to the hype and lost in the second round. We thought this year would be difficult on them with all the losses to graduation. Instead, they’ve gotten better. Brad Davison came back for his fifth year, and sophomore Johnny Davis emerged as one of the best scorers in the nation. Those two have carried Wisconsin to a 24-win season, and Davis has done so much that he’s almost a consensus top-ten pick.
A great scorer and rebounder, Davis is crafty in the mid-range. He’s long at 6’5” and creates separation well, hits tough shot after tough shot and seems to will his way to the basket. He’s only 32% from deep, and the Badgers as a whole struggle to space the floor around him. The Badgers will get as far as Davis takes them, and scouts will be looking to see how superhuman he can become. We have some questions about quickness off the bounce and shooting range off the dribble we’d like to see addressed before we see Davis’ sophomore season end. He’s all but a certainty to get drafted in the lottery and declare this year.
14. Colgate Red Raiders
Record: 23-11
Auto Bid: Patriot
Pro Prospects: Nelly Cummings
More a Euro prospect than someone for the domestic leagues, big shout out to Nelly Cummings. A good, high-volume mid-major point guard who can score it. He’s small, and the Red Raiders have a balanced attack with five who average double-figures, but Cummings is one of the better mid-major players in this tournament.
7. USC Trojans
Pro Prospects: Isaiah Mobley
Andy Enfield has quietly turned into one of the more reliable coaches in the nation. USC plays big and knows how to win that way. They mix up defenses and recruit older guards to run the show, a sound strategy that gets them 20 win season after 20 win season.
This is an experienced group, highlighted by Isaiah Mobley, the older brother of Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Evan Mobley. Isaiah is more of a stetch-5 and skill-based big than a rim protector, elite athlete or multi-tool threat. Mobley averages 14-9-3 and shoots 35% from 3 on good volume. He’s draftable and will be right on the edge of the top-60 come draft night.
Other than him, the Trojans have good college guys. Drew Peterson is a good, big scorer, Max Agbonkpolo has some tools as a big and Boogie Ellis gets paint touches. They’re a terrific rebounding group and don’t get scored on at the rim since they’re so huge. That’s more about the collective than any individual.
10. Miami Hurricanes
Pro Prospects: Isaiah Wong
There are plenty of good players on this ACC team, but one stands out as having professional and NBA potential: Isaiah Wong. A live-body athlete who can create his own shot, Wong has a deep bag of tricks offensively. His shooting (31% from 3) has been lacking this year, but he has a lot of traits you look for in a combo guard. Wong likely returns to school for another season, as he’s only a sophomore. A good showing in the tournament will put him in a good spot heading into next season.
2. Auburn Tigers
Pro Prospects: Jabari Smith, Walker Kessler, Allen Flanigan, KD Johnson
The Tigers got off to a molten start to the season, getting ranked as high as #1 in the country. They’ve stalled out of late, losing 4 of their final 7, including bad losses to Florida and Texas A&M. All eyes are on Smith — and it’s easy to see why when he walks into a gym — but Kessler is really the impetus behind their success. Find ways to effectively attack or expose the big man and the Tigers will struggle. They’ve also not consistently played well away from home; another sign of a giant ripe for the picking.
Smith has never blown us away as a top prospect. He sits third on our board, but is a half-tier behind the likes of Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren. We’ve written about him a great deal already this year and love his 3-point shooting capabilities and defensive upside. We just don’t trust him off the bounce, creating his own shot and think he is not as quick-twitch of an athlete as many make him see. He’ll show well when the shot is falling and make your jaw drop with some of his makes. Full games aren’t as kind to him and expose how dependent he is on the creation of others.
Kessler has played his way into first-round conversation by putting up what statistically is the best shot-blocking season in NCAA history. He can hit a few jumpers away from the rim when dared, but he’s a dunker’s spot delight and a solid roller as well. We can’t decide if he has some switchable upside or gets exposed when he has to move laterally — the results are greatly mixed at Auburn. At his size and with the rim protection he provides, he’s a cheat code in college and an intriguing guy to get your hands on if you’re an NBA team.
Flanigan has long been thought of as a 3-and-D prospect, while Johnson is a cocky, energy guard who defends his tail off. Neither piques our interest too much, but this is March and we aren’t naive. One signature game or standout performance will have scouts and observers buzzing about whether there’s a pro player in there.
15. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record: 21-10
Auto Bid: Atlantic Sun
Pro Prospects: None
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