NCAA Tournament Scouting Preview: South Region
Arizona's path to the Final Four is clear. Are there many big-name NBA Draft guys that could push them along the way?
It’s tourney time!
All the college basketball that we watch from a scouting perspective tends to pay off a bit this time of year, as filling out a bracket is more about educated guesses than blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. There’s little proof that pays off in terms of the accuracy of our picks, but it at least allows us to keep the analytical portion of our brain on.
From a scouting perspective, we’ll be watching these games to see how some of the best players in the nation perform under the brightest lights. Who handles the spotlight well? Which teams trip up and cost their prospects some standing in draft circles? Who leads their group on an improbable run and rises up draft boards as a result? We are ready to overreact to specific matchups — despite doing our best to keep everything in perspective.
The South Region features one of the nation’s best teams in Arizona and a dearth of top prospects elsewhere. While Bennedict Mathurin is a lottery name for the Wildcats, there are very few other top-tier guys in the South. EJ Liddell and Malaki Branham from Ohio State have injured teammates and a tough draw of Loyola and Villanova ahead. Kennedy Chandler and Caleb Houstan are really the only others here with first-round potential. A few second-round names to know are hiding in the South, but more than anything this is a bracket that is susceptible to chaos and has a great deal of upset potential.
1. Arizona Wildcats
Pro Prospects: Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry, Christian Koloko, Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa
What a job head coach Tommy Lloyd has done in his first season. The talent was clearly there for a deep run, but Lloyd has weaponized it in the system he brought over from Gonzaga. The Wildcats are a really tough team to guard, with two big men posting up and playing hi-lows, two shooters around the perimeter and multiple handlers who can create out of ball screens. Add in the nation’s best two-point defense, and competitiveness that allows them to come back from large holes to win, and it’s easy to see why Arizona ran through the Pac-12 and is a title favorite.
Mathurin is the guy everyone’s eyes will be on. Averaging 17-5-3 this year, he’s an athletic shooting specialist who can throw down some vicious slams. His improvement off the dribble this year is notable, both as a scorer and a passer. He’s a top-eight guy on our board, should go in the lottery and is the best 3-point shooter outside of Jabari Smith in lotto discussions. He’s been getting better as the season goes, too: since February 7th, he’s averaging 19-5-4 on 50-40-80 shooting splits.
After Mathurin is a well-rounded group with pro potential everywhere but no clear declarations for the pros. Terry is our favorite, a 6’7” point wing with elite passing ability and a Swiss Army Knife defensive style. He’s an NBA athlete but doesn’t have the jump shot yet. When/ if it comes, he’s a certain first-rounder. Koloko is the linchpin of their defense, a major rim protector with brawn and toughness. Everything for him offensively comes at the rim, but nice touch as a passer and a high motor give him appeal.
Those two are the most likely to go this year. Azuolas Tubelis is an intriguing big man. The Lithuanian hasn’t shot the ball well at Arizona but has stretch big potential. If that comes and partners with his passing, handling, interior scoring and surprising mobility, he’s an unorthodox big who should get some NBA looks. Kerr Kriisa, down right now with an ankle injury, will be necessary for them to make a deep run. If he comes back healthy and can be the impactful combo guard he’s proven, the Wildcats have no holes in their starting five. Kriisa has been one of our favorite long-term draft prospects in college due to his competitive fire and combination of shooting and playmaking at the guard spot.
16. Bryant Bulldogs
Record: 22-9
Auto Bid: NEC
Pro Prospects: None
16. Wright State Raiders
Record: 21-13
Auto Bid: Horizon
Pro Prospects: None
8. Seton Hall Pirates
Pro Prospects: Kadary Richmond, Jacob Rhoden
What Kevin Willard has done here at Seton Hall shouldn’t be overlooked. They’re consistently really good, one of the better defensive teams year after year and getting to the point where each year, a new senior rises up to take the reigns on-court. This year’s senior is Jacob Rhoden, a strong 6’6” wing/ forward who shoots it well and can defend at a high level. He’s got G-League killer written all over him.
Kadary Richmond is an intriguing pro prospect, too. More of a passer than scorer on offense, he’s taken over some games with his slashing ability and how he works to get to the rim. No, there’s very little shooting there, but as a defensive-minded wing who can really pass, Richmond has enough tools there to be worth a look down the line. He’s only a sophomore, so there’s still time for the shot to keep improving before the NBA becomes a realistic target.
9. TCU Horned Frogs
Pro Prospects: Mike Miles
What head coach Jamie Dixon has done here is remarkable. The Horned Frogs do more with less than any team in the Big Twelve. They hand the keys over to point guard Mike Miles, a top-45 guy for us despite being 6’1” and not posting great shooting numbers. He does a little bit of everything, plays physically and rarely makes mental mistakes. He’ll disappear at times when opponents take him away, but we’ve seen how he plays with other great talents at the FIBA U-19 games. He’s a pro player through and through.
5. Houston Cougars
Pro Prospects: Fabian White, Kyler Edwards, Taze Moore
What a shame it is that Marcus Sasser (the team’s best player & prospect) and Tramon Mark both went down with injuries early in the season. Somehow, the Cougars have only lost 5 games and remain a top team in the country without them. Kelvin Sampson has a machine down there; they play great defense, develop offensive talent and win games on sheer willpower.
This is a senior-laden group. Moore and Edwards have taken roundabout ways to get to Houston and transferred in this year, both of whom have played better than expected on this stage. Whether either has a pro future in the G-League remains to be seen, but they’re great fits with this Houston team for how physically they defend.
The real senior to know is Fabian White, who has stepped up as a leader in Sasser’s absence. White, averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds and shooting 40% from 3, has a ton of tools that NBA teams should like. He’s another workout-circuit guy who we would love to see in the G-League combine to test out how he fares next to similar talents.
12. UAB Blazers
Record: 27-7
Auto Bid: C-USA
Pro Prospects: None
4. Illinois Fighting Illini
Pro Prospects: Kofi Cockburn, Alfonso Plummer, Andre Curbelo, Coleman Hawkins
Brad Underwood is one of the better coaches in America. His offense gets the most out of everyone and he develops talent really well. They let it fly from deep and protect the rim on the other end. They’re a fun team to watch and don’t have a weak link.
Kofi Cockburn came back for another year in college, a move that we scratched our head over nine months ago. Without Ayo Dosunmu, we saw a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, Cockburn averaged 20 and 10, bumped his free throw shooting up from 55% to 65% and improved his feel for the game. Whether that results in a better draft position for Cockburn remains to be seen. He plays like a man among boys in college and won’t get many post-up opportunities in the NBA. But his game translates well to the pros and we really like him as a second-round target.
Alfonso Plummer is an interesting guy to think about. He’s only 6’1” as an off-guard but he shoots 40% from 3 on insane volume and rarely has an off night. He’s great off screens, too. He’s certainly not a threat to be drafted or land in many top-60 rankings but his career certainly won’t end here in Champaign.
The other two guys are head-scratchers. Curbelo makes some of the prettiest passes you’ll ever see, yet the Illini are much better without him on the floor. He doesn’t shoot it and struggles a lot on defense. Smart and fun, the passing isn’t enough to save him as an NBA guy. Coleman Hawkins on the other hand has every tool in the book. His production hasn’t matched consistently. With another year and perhaps becoming the focal point, he’s a name to watch for in 2023.
13. Chattanooga Mocs
Record: 27-7
Auto Bid: Southern
Pro Prospects: None
6. Colorado State Rams
Pro Prospects: David Roddy
Roddy is a big-time scorer who can do it in every way. He’s only about 6’5” but weighs a svelte 250 pounds, bullying everyone in his way. Put a smaller guy on him and he’ll dominate in the post. Go big and he uses his quickness and shot-making to torture a defense. Averaging 19-7-3 on the season, Roddy is one of those G-League All-Star types: he’s so good when he can be a focal point but isn’t good enough at one specific thing to play a supplementary role in the NBA.
The Rams are good, 25-5 on the season and have solid guard play around Roddy. They shoot it well and sell out on help at the rim, forcing teams to beat them from the outside. Kind of a brutal draw for them to get the 12:15pm game in the Eastern timezone against Michigan, who only drives a few hours to get to Indianapolis. Those little details often matter.
11. Michigan Wolverines
Pro Prospects: Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin
By the skin of their teeth, Juwan Howard’s Michigan team made the NCAA Tournament. The strength of their resume in the Big Ten carried them, as the 14 losses and 5-5 record over their last 10 games is not indicative of a strong at-large berth. Regardless, the Wolverines are big and long, which could give issues to Colorado State or any team they face.
Caleb Houstan remains a first-round draft pick in our book. He’s a tremendous 3-and-D prospect who has quietly put together a strong, consistent season for a freshman: 10.5 PPG on 36.6% 3-point shooting. He may draw the assignment on Roddy in the CSU game, which is an NBA-caliber player for him.
The Wolverines do have a potential one-and-done who is on the fence in Moussa Diabate. A defensive-minded big man, his offense started to click late in the season, averaging 10.6 PPG after February 10th. He’s a little raw, is caught in the no man’s land offensively of not being big enough at the 5 or skilled enough at the 4. To us, he needs another year in Ann Arbor. The roadblock to Michigan being the best place to develop Diabate is the impending return of Hunter Dickinson at the center spot. Dickinson is a good college big, has soft touch and is disciplined defensively. He got torched in the G-League showcase last year, propelling him back to school, and hasn’t got overwhelmingly better this season. He’s not a top-80 guy on our lists.
Kobe Bufkin is a name to know for the future, but he’s on the outside of the rotation looking in. Michigan is young and inconsistent, so it’s hard to know just what version of them we’ll get in the tournament. There’s enough talent here to push to the second weekend and enough inconsistency to barely show up for their first-round matchup.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
Pro Prospects: Kennedy Chandler, Josiah-Jordan James, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Jonas Aidoo, Santi Vescovi
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Rick Barnes has once again maximized a group with a decent amount of talent but no top-end guys. Their grind-you-out style, physical defense and underrated athleticism have combined with a fair amount of experience to get the Vols peaking at the right time.
Chandler and Vescovi are a great collegiate backcourt duo. Chandler is the one-and-done candidate who will likely declare. He’s got a great feel out of the PNR and is a passer who thinks one step ahead. He defends far better than most undersized point guards, has plus length and gets to the free throw line. His floater isn’t reliable yet, and he’s an incredibly streaky jump shooter. He’ll need both to win us over as a first-round lock, though in a class weak on guard talent, he’s likely to go in the top-30 in June. Vescovi is the sage mentor who can play off-ball and commands the ball down the stretch. Teams who struggle defending at the point will hate facing the Vols.
Long-term, Tennessee freshmen Jonas Aidoo and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield are behemoth bodies worth watching. Aidoo is more of your traditional big, while BHH should play the 4 and is a freakshow athletically. Josiah-Jordan James is a pickpocket who can hit the 3 and is strong on the wing. All three are firmly outside our top-100 but have their fringe fans and can set themselves up well with buzz for next year if they play well in March.
14. Longwood Lancers
Record: 26-6
Auto Bid: Big South
Pro Prospects: None
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
Pro Prospects: EJ Liddell, Malaki Branham
Chris Holtman is one of our favorite coaches in the country. A great offensive mind, the Buckeyes’ head coach runs the most structured and detail-oriented practices you’ll ever see. It’s no surprise so many of his players get better throughout their careers, and even throughout the season. That’s what has turned two Ohio State guys into legitimate first-round prospects.
EJ Liddell is a second-rounder in pretty much any other season. A 6’8” big man who guards the 4 or 5 but can do everything offensively, it’s Liddell’s shooting and passing that set him apart from other bigs. He’s a Draymond-light in the right situation. We have Liddell as having a second-round grade, but in this season where fewer than 30 guys are currently getting a first-round grade, we expect to see his name called in the first.
Malaki Branham is the late-season riser who has caught fire and confidence over the last six weeks. He’s a good shooter and heady offensive threat. We worry about his athleticism a bit, too. Guys who go back to Columbus get rewarded for doing so and get much better over time. Branham shouldn’t rush his draft decision, and another year with Holtmann and his staff will turn Branham into a surefire first-round talent.
10. Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers
Pro Prospects: None
30-year-old head coach Drew Valentine has things rolling at Loyola, picking up where Porter Moser left off. Seven of their top-eight are upperclassmen, they get balanced production, have solid length and shoot the three-ball really well.
This is a great mid-major team, though they lack the top-tier talent that should be on pro radars. Most mid-major teams rise for one of two reasons: a few elite players or a fantastic program with balanced talent. The Ramblers are able the latter, which make them dangerous in the tournament.
2. Villanova Wildcats
Pro Prospects: Collin Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, Brandon Slater, Justin Moore
The strength of this Villanova team is in their depth. They lack that one star player to stand out and carry them and they aren’t as big on the wings as they have been when at their best. But this is a fundamentally sound group who finds ways to win, can all shoot it and is the nation’s best at making their free throws. All that counts for something in March.
As the Wildcats prepare for a deep run, it’s inevitable that at least one guy will position himself as a pro prospect. Gillespie, the fifth-year senior who runs the show for them, is going to be a stead third guard in the NBA for the next few years, like so many Villanova point guards before him. Whether he gets drafted is irrelevant; he’ll land in the right situation and have an NBA future.
Who else steps up? Your guess is as good as mine. Samuels is the one with the physical tools: he’s a strong 6’7” senior but has disappointed as a shooter (25% from 3). He was in our preseason top-75 and has since dropped with the concerns from deep. Brandon Slater (9.1 PTS, 34% from 3) and Justin Moore (15.0 PTS, 35% from 3) are both fringe prospects who could help themselves moving forward. Slater is a senior, so a good showing here could get him on the workout circuit come June. Moore will likely return to run the show next year.
15. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens
Record: 22-12
Auto Bid: Colonial
Pro Prospects: None
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