NCAA Tournament Scouting Preview: East Region
Four title contenders reside in the East. Can they make it unscathed and see their NBA prospects carry them deep into March?
It’s tourney time!
All the college basketball that we watch from a scouting perspective tends to pay off a bit this time of year, as filling out a bracket is more about educated guesses than blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. There’s little proof that pays off in terms of the accuracy of our picks, but it at least allows us to keep the analytical portion of our brain on.
From a scouting perspective, we’ll be watching these games to see how some of the best players in the nation perform under the brightest lights. Who handles the spotlight well? Which teams trip up and cost their prospects some standing in draft circles? Who leads their group on an improbable run and rises up draft boards as a result? We are ready to overreact to specific matchups — despite doing our best to keep everything in perspective.
The top four seeds in the East Region are all teams with legitimate Final Four potential: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue and UCLA. Scouts will pay close attention to all four, as each team has first-round talent with plenty of unanswered questions. Who of the Baylor wings is the better prospect? What do we make of TyTy Washington? Can Jaden Ivey take over games when it matters? Is Peyton Watson able to salvage anything of his draft stock?
Beyond this group is a bracket chocked full of second-round sleepers. From Murray State’s Tevin Brown to San Francisco’s Jamaree Bouyea, Marquette’s Justin Lewis to UNC’s Caleb Love, there’s more scouting to be done in this region than initially meets the eye.
1. Baylor Bears
Pro Prospects: Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown, Matthew Mayer, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, James Akinjo
It’s a shame that 6’9” big man Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua went down with a season-ending injury. The Bears’ chances at repeating as NCAA Champions have greatly diminished without his interior defense. Since he got hurt on February 12th, Baylor is 5-2, with a loss to non-tourney team Oklahoma and an OT win against Oklahoma State. They’re hard to feel great about as a high seed to make a deep run. Their guards shoot it but aren’t the stars of this group like last year. Instead, two athletic and defensive-minded wings pressure on the perimeter and catch your eye as soon as they step on the floor.
The debate rages on between who between Jeremy Sochan and Kendall Brown is the favorite of scouts. With late-season offensive development and a more trustworthy 3-point shot, Sochan has emerged as our top guy heading into March. Both are top-25 guys on most boards and will be first-round picks this year. Sochan has even started to add a little off the bounce, and the competitiveness and elite defensive IQ he plays with has vaulted him into lottery status. Brown, on the other hand, is way too passive in the half-court. An up-and-down game favors him, but the NBA isn’t built that way. Scouts will zero in on Brown and how he plays on offense as a make-or-break period this March.
The guards at Baylor are vastly underrated. Akinjo, Flagler and Cryer are all even offensively (each average 13.5 PPG) and shoulder an even burden. Flagler and Cryer have stepped up more lately, both shoot 40% from 3 and can drill them off the bounce. We like both as intriguing 2023 names. Akinjo is more of a G-League or European name to us.
The sleeper on this team is Matthew Mayer, a ho-hum wing who plays good defense, makes excellent decisions and can shoot it better than the numbers indicate (only 31% this year). Mayer had some fans as a deep sleeper last year and remains steadfast in the top-45 on our board despite the shooting downturn. If Baylor is going to win, they’ll need him and the guards to be impactful from deep. Look for Sochan to play some minutes at the 5 and for Brown to be the enigma everyone tries to figure out.
16. Norfolk State Spartans
Record: 24-6
Auto Bid: MEAC
Pro Prospects: None
8. North Carolina Tar Heels
Pro Prospects: Caleb Love, RJ Davis
The Hubert Davis era in Chapel Hill saw a solid first campaign, capped off by the big win over Duke on Coach K’s final game in Cameron Indoor. They have a solid shooting group and have solved some spacing issues from the last few years. Still, this is one of the weaker teams in terms of top-end talent we’ve seen come out of UNC in a while.
Caleb Love is a first-round talent who has reclaimed his draft buzz after a dismal 2021 season. He’s a shooter first and should be a solid defender. He’s not a true point guard, which hurts his versatility a bit, but the right situation where he plays off-ball and guards the 1 will be perfect for him. We believe in RJ Davis long-term as a guard prospect and know there are plenty of other names that scouts have monitored: Armando Bacot, Brady Manek and Dawson Garcia.
9. Marquette Golden Eagles
Pro Prospects: Justin Lewis
When Shaka Smart took over the job at Marquette, we had hoped they could overachieve in year one. Smart’s team has done just that, but it hasn’t been due to their new coach. On the contrary, the emergence of Justin Lewis as the best prospect in the Big East has been a revelation for this team. The Baltimore native is athletic, strong, big, graceful and skilled. He’s the perfect 4-man for the modern NBA, especially considering he’s hit 35% of his triples this year.
The Golden Eagles won’t be a threat to go deep in the tournament unless Lewis physically carries them there. Outside of Lewis, nine other guys get minutes in this deep rotation. The frequent media timeouts and pauses in NCAA Tournament action don’t favor their style of play unless they press, which risks wearing Lewis down.
5. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Pro Prospects: None
Randy Bennett is an unbelievable coach, and time and time again he resists the temptation to go elsewhere. What he builds at Saint Mary’s is truly impressive when you realize that none of the guys on this year’s team are standout pro prospects like those who came before, such as Patty Mills, Jordan Ford or Malik Fitts. Four seniors and two juniors lead the way, with strong interior presence Matthias Tass as the top offensive option. He’s flanked by good shooters (Tommy Kuhse, Alex Ducas and Kyle Bowen), a good athletic guard in Logan Johnson and Kiwi Dan Fotu to help guard physical 4s.
The Gaels have the potential and discipline to go to the second weekend and beyond. For all the strong players they have, none strike us as NBA caliber prospects to know.
12. Wyoming Cowboys/ Indiana Hoosiers
Wyoming Pro Prospects: Graham Ike
Indiana Pro Prospects: Trayce Jackson-Davis
This will be an interior slobber knocker! Both pro prospects and respective best players are back-to-basket forces who love to command the ball in post-ups. Jackson-Davis, long rumored to be an NBA prospect due to his athleticism, hasn’t added facets to his game during his college tenure and still has the same flaws (shooting range, right hand, playmaking feel) that he possessed as a freshman. Yet he’s been supremely good at producing during Indiana’s run to make the tournament and may have reclaimed some interest in the second round as a result.
Graham Ike is a post maven, operating on the blocks more than pretty much anyone in the country. Wyoming is huge for a mid-major, with 6’10” Ike flanked by 6’8” Hunter Maldonado and 6’8” Jeremiah Oden. They have a really strong defense and contest the 3-pointer really well. This should be a good, old-fashioned slugfest.
4. UCLA Bruins
Pro Prospects: Peyton Watson, Jaime Jaquez, Johnny Juzang, Myles Johnson
Mick Cronin has gotten the Bruins rolling once again. A Final Four run last year saw the meat-and-potatoes of their talent return. That pushed talented freshman Peyton Watson to the bench, an area he’s rarely left due to his own inconsistent play on offense and the team’s win-now goals. Some really good college players like Jules Bernard and Tyger Campbell fill in the gaps, but NBA teams need to know the big four names, all of whom have a lot of money on the line this March.
Starting with Watson, he’s in a real difficult predicament. What he’s shown this year is not first-round worthy and may not even be draftable. But he’s young, has an elite athletic frame and profile, came in as a top recruit with buzz and some of his lack of minutes are excusable with the Bruins’ situation. Should he declare, go back or transfer? We don’t have the answers, but if he can do something positive in the tournament it will at least give him options.
Jaquez and Juzang were the guys last year and both have the ability to go off. The shooting specialist in Juzang is shooting 36% from 3 this year. He was a hot commodity a year ago as he torched teams in March. It will take a similar performance to vault him inside the top-45 on draft night. Jaquez actually has a better shot of getting drafted earlier because of his versatility and elite basketball IQ. Few guys find ways to just make positive plays happen like he does, and at 6’6” there are areas to hide him on-ball. His shot has been down this year a bit, but the stroke is fine. He’s got a wide draft range and would really help himself with a strong March.
As far as undrafted free agent targets go, Myles Johnson is high on our list. He’s a great shot blocker who can develop in the G-League with a year or two of seasoning and learn how to play next to a pick-and-roll-heavy guard, something he hasn’t done in his stops at Rutgers or UCLA. Johnson and Cody Riley toggle in and out of the starting lineup based on matchups, but the Bruins are 6-0 when he plays 24 or more minutes. We’d expect to see him a decent amount this tournament and think the grad transfer will generate enough buzz to land somewhere this summer.
13. Akron Zips
Record: 24-9
Auto Bid: MAC
Pro Prospects: Ali Ali
The Zips are coached by former Illinois lead man John Groce and play his stingy style of ball. Ali Ali, a third-year sophomore from Indiana, is their best player and has some fringe long-term appeal. He’s athletic, a good shooter (over 40% from 3) and long at 6’8”. The MAC has a few prospects each year worth knowing, and Ali Ali is atop the list for names to remember next year.
6. Texas Longhorns
Pro Prospects: Dylan Disu, Timmy Allen, Marcus Carr, Courtney Ramey, Andrew Jones
The first year in Austin hasn’t gone as planned for Chris Beard. Preseason expectations were sky-high after he assembled a group of the best transfers on the market. That hasn’t materialized to winning games, and with none of these guys making any top-60 lists anytime soon, big-time NBA decision-makers won’t be tuning in specifically to see the Longhorns.
There’s fringe talent here worth getting to know, and a ton of guys we’d want to host in a workout setting. Disu is a stretch-4 recovering from a knee injury; he’s barely played at Texas but really caught our eye when at Vanderbilt. The other four are all balanced scorers with this group: Allen is the slashing forward who struggles from 3, while the others are your classic dime-a-dozen scoring guards.
These Longhorns don’t shoot it well or mesh on-court. They’ve won games on sheer talent and being very good in the half-court defensively. They simply don’t have our trust at this time of the year and don’t deserve a ton of love from scouts.
11. Virginia Tech Hokies
Pro Prospects: Keve Aluma
Man, the Hokies dismantling of Duke in the ACC Championship was one of the best-coached games we’ve ever seen. Mike Young is a fantastic coach, recruits his system well and maximizes his guys. The Hokies are great offensively and all shoot it well. The key for them is inside-outside big man Keve Aluma. Not a top-100 guy by many estimates, he’s the best player in a program continually defined by overachieving, defying expectations and getting better every year. He’s a guy most NBA teams should kick the tires about.
3. Purdue Boilermakers
Pro Prospects: Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams, Zach Edey, Eric Hunter, Sasha Stefanovic
The Boilermakers are frustrating in a lot of ways and so much f’n fun in others. Their offensive playbook is legitimately coaching porn, with off-ball action and screens galore. They play inside-out, draw fouls, have some fantastic highlights from Jaden Ivey (athleticism) and Trevion Williams (passing) that make your jaw drop. They also clog the lane with two bigs in a way that prevents Ivey from tapping into his athleticism, don’t let him handle out of the pick-and-roll as much as many would like and have a tendency to play down to their competition.
Ivey is the one with clear superstar potential. The NBA game will suit him well for all the frustrations outlined above. He’s a blur in transition, has the best acceleration in the draft class and makes some ridiculously tough ones near the rim. Ivey’s kryptonite has long been his pull-up jumper. He can knock down 3-pointers when set, but he’s slow and not fluid when time isn’t on his side. Because of how the Boilermakers play, he can be minimized a bit as they throw the ball inside so much.
Williams and Edey are unrelenting as a tandem, posting up all game. Edey’s size and touch from the free throw line give him easy points and wears opponents down physically. Williams is the best-passing big in college basketball, creating for others at the high or low post. Williams is a really young junior and should be draftable in the 2nd round this year, while Edey strikes us as more of a collegiate guy than a pro prospect.
The shooting specialists in Hunter and Stefanovic can explode at any time. Both are likely to go play overseas somewhere, but are names to know in case they get some workouts with pro teams over the next six months. This is a team with good balance and Final Four talent. Something just feels off with this group.
14. Yale Bulldogs
Record: 19-11
Auto Bid: Ivy
Pro Prospects: None
7. Murray State Racers
Pro Prospects: Tevin Brown, KJ Williams
The Racers have lost two games all season and are one of the best mid-majors in recent memory. They’re dominant on both ends, particularly on offense, and lead by two juniors who complement each other well. Tevin Brown is the shooter, and the more immediate draft prospect. His game is fantastic in terms of translation to the next level. He averages 17-5-3 and shoots an absurd 39% from 3 on nine attempts per game. He’ll thrive in the NBA or G-League as a combo guard specialist, and at 6’5” he has enough size to play the wings.
KJ Williams is an inside-outside big who is great on the interior and cleans the glass at a high rate. Williams is the OVC Player of the Year, is ridiculously athletic and had a 39-point outing earlier in the season. He’ll be a legitimate G-League under-the-radar guy in a couple of years. For now, the combination of size and shooting that both give allow the Racers to hang in there with high-major teams and potentially make noise in this tournament.
10. San Francisco Dons
Pro Prospects: Jamaree Bouyea
The Dons punched an at-large berth in an improbable situation in the WCC, and it speaks to just how good Bouyea is and how Todd Golden has built this program. While Golden may be destined for a high-major program in the next year or so, Bouyea is a legitimate NBA prospect. He’s super quick off the bounce, shoots 37% from deep and can handle the burden of creating for others.
This is a small, up-tempo team that loves to shoot it. Bouyea is surrounded by guards who space the floor and attack closeouts, a few skilled international big men and a balanced lineup that can all score it. This is a dangerous offensive team with an ability to beat giants: they took down Virginia last year in a complete dismantling. Don’t sleep on the Dons.
2. Kentucky Wildcats
Pro Prospects: TyTy Washington, Oscar Tshiebwe, Kellan Grady, Daimion Collins, Bryce Hopkins, Sahvir Wheeler, Keion Brooks, Davion Mintz
Ever since the pandemic hit, John Calipari has altered the way he’s recruited. More than ever, he’s relying on the transfer portal to bring in older, win-now players and not featuring one-and-done guys as the bedrock of the program. While star freshman Washington is their best pro prospect, upperclassmen like Brooks and Mintz are getting heavy minutes while experienced transfers Tshiebwe, Wheeler and Grady are some of their most important players. This is a balanced group and one that can beat you in many ways. Unless they get hot from 3-point land, one of them isn’t behind the arc, making them susceptible to an early exit against a flamethrowing underdog.
Let’s get this out of the way first: several of the pro prospects on this team aren’t ones for this year. Freshmen Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins are exceptional athletes but don’t play enough to show development for the pros. They need to come back. Grady and Mintz are 3-point specialists. Both are likely to wind up somewhere in the G-League next season. Brooks is a good athlete but the natural athleticism and skill he showed in high school has never fully clicked in Lexington. Wheeler is a great passer but is a dreadful shooter and is too small, two fatal flaws for a point guard.
Everyone is tuning in to see TyTy Washington. An up-and-down season with some injuries and evolving roles has Washington solidly as a first-round guy but many wondering what his ideal role is. He’s a lethal mid-range scorer, a great passer (which he shows in the moments when Wheeler sits) and a knockdown catch-and-shoot guy. The lack of range off the bounce and the handcuffing roles of Calipari’s offense make it an either-or situation with TyTy: either he’s on the ball and creating out of the PNR or he’s off-ball exclusively, running off floppy screens in the mid-range. He was a late add to this Kentucky class, de-committing from Creighton. We like his game a lot but don’t know whether the typical Kentucky effect of smooth-shooting combos exploding at the next level really applies to him.
Then there’s Tshiebwe, a dominant college player with a legitimate case to be the National Player of the Year. He’s the best rebounder we’ve ever seen in college, and his strength, motor and athleticism make him a big man prospect despite being a tad short. The mid-range jumper is developing and his IQ has taken strides, though it’s hard to know just what NBA teams really think of him. A dominant March and a deep run could have him knocking on the door of the first round.
15. Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Record: 19-11
Auto Bid: MAAC
Pro Prospects: None
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