Nick Smith: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Report
Despite a rocky year with the Razorbacks, Smith is still projected as a first-round pick. Will he find an extra gear to tap into at the next level?
It’s hard to overstate just how bad this season was for Nick Smith at Arkansas.
Coming into the draft cycle, he was seen as a potential top-10 pick. Beloved by many for his very real length (6’5” with a 6’8” wingspan), quick handle, and on or off-ball scoring abilities, Smith never got things going as a freshman.
Now, he’s looking to do what only Ziaire Williams has done over the last 15 years: get drafted in the first round despite posting a negative BPM (box plus-minus) as a freshman.
Others have done this as freshmen and gone on to make positive impacts in the NBA. Davion Mitchell was a disaster his first year at Auburn, then worked and worked his way up to become a lottery pick eventually. Jordan Clarkson, Josh Richardson, and Kenneth Faried all recovered from a negative BPM to help teams in the pros and even become starters. (Smith isn’t the only player fighting this trend, by the way. GG Jackson of South Carolina also had a negative BPM, which came on much higher volume).
The numbers and metrics don’t a player make. Smith just has a lot to overcome if he wants to be a reliable NBA player.
The flashes we did see from Smith which were positive were pretty encouraging, though. On a full re-watch of his games and action, I noticed just how much he cares and competes on both ends. He’s fearless, highly energetic, and wants the ball in the big moments. His touch and shot-making are incredibly enticing, and the fact he can play off-ball will help him blend into the NBA far better than other guard scorers.
This year is difficult to put into context for Smith. He battled an injury to his knee throughout the season, and it definitely hampered how he moved when healthy. Some games featured minimal roles and minutes — he was out from December 17th until mid-February and didn’t look himself once again in the NCAA Tournament.
The other piece of context that is important is the lack of floor spacing with the Razorbacks. Part of his offensive game is operating with the ball in his hands, and Eric Musselman couldn’t create enough floor-spacing with their other best players to put Smith in advantageous positions.
Offense
Coming into the season, Smith was supposed to be the premiere scorer for the Arkansas Razorbacks. He and Anthony Black were a highly-touted tandem, though I did have questions about their fit due to how Black doesn’t play off-ball very well. I expected this season to see Smith being more of a shooter and spot-up threat while Black ran ball screens. That’s not the best use of Smith, another potential example of a terrific self-creator being sent to an off-ball role in college to make the fit work. Luckily, the freshmen weren’t as rigid in those roles, which helped Smith showcase what he can do.