Ochai Agbaji: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
While many see Agbaji as a safe bet, the small role he fits into in the NBA may make him overvalued if taken too high on draft night
A four-year player at Kansas, Ochai Agbaji can finally go out on top. He won a National Championship, was a contender for National POY and finally won 30 games with the Jayhawks. Agbaji is a testament to steady, gradual improvement over a four-year period in Lawrence. His 3-point shooting improved every year with the Jayhawks, reaching north of 40% this season.
At 6’5” with long arms and a tremendous first step on defense, it’s easy to see why Agbaji gets called a 3-and-D prospect — and a safe one at that. So much of his offensive arsenal is based on standing in the corners or running off screens/ DHOs into a 3-pointer without taking a dribble. While filling that complementary role, he can play in a switching defensive scheme, guard 1 thru 4 a bit and be very good at the point of attack.
Those traits are clearly valued in the NBA, and the 3-and-D archetype is one of the most impactful for role players at the next level. Having a great 3-and-D prospect can change the trajectory of a franchise: just as Mikal Bridges in Phoenix. But Bridges’ ascent into elite territory is much more of an outlier than it is the norm, is built more off his defensive ability than his offense, and actually an example of a curious trend in draft circles.
Upperclassmen 3-and-D players may be overdrafted. That’s not to say that drafting Corey Kispert or Cameron Johnson in the lottery is a bad idea. But for every solid wing that gets taken top-20, there’s a guy just as impactful at his role who didn’t even sniff the top-30, like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Wesley Matthews, Danny Green, Garrison Matthews or Gary Trent Jr.
Agbaji may be a low-risk prospect because he’s older and has clearly-projectable strengths that everyone can clearly see how to win with. But the risk with a guy like Agbaji comes in the opportunity cost; taking a guy of his position and mold instead of an archetype that is more challenging to fill with a value pick or undrafted free agent.
Part of the reason Agbaji, in particular, is the guy directly linked to our indictment on drafting 3-and-D players extremely high is because there are clear limitations to his game at the next level that box in his ceiling in an off-ball role. Agbaji has real trouble scoring off the bounce. His drives to the rim are done with a surprising lack of athleticism, his pull-up jumper seems disjointed from his base to his release, his deceleration near non-existent, and his runner and touch suffering greatly as a result.
Most of the lottery or mid-first round prospects who deliver value where they were taken are either elite movement shooters (it’s debatable if Agbaji can become that) or have developed an ancillary offensive game. Desmond Bane got the one-dribble pull-up. Saddiq Bey has great footwork, finishing and mid-post ability. Kevin Huerter is tremendous off handoffs and as a sturdy secondary creator.
Every time we try to project what Agbaji’s additional role can and will be, we come up short. The ball handling is severely lacking, both in control and creativity. The functional athleticism when driving to the rim, high turnover rate for his role at Kansas and rudimentary passing acumen are all strikes against Agbaji developing into a more diverse offensive threat.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s a great deal of value in finding a 45% shooter from the corners who isn’t a negative on the defensive end. Plenty of NBA veterans carved out their careers that way. But for such a niche role, I’m not sure how valuable it is in the lottery.
Offensively, Agbaji’s four-year sample and streaky but improving shooting paints a pretty clear picture. He’s good off the catch, not off the dribble, athletic off back screens/ cuts and likes to run in transition. Perhaps the real upside for Agbaji to become a guy who returns mid-first-round value is to discuss his defensive impact further.