One-and-Dones: Trends & Implications

A look at how many freshmen typically get drafted can help us better project the draft positioning for prospects moving forward

Perhaps we get a lot of pushback for the following statement, but we don’t care: this isn’t a weak draft class. It’s a draft class that’s perceived as being weak — only time will tell if it upholds that justification.

Many factors contribute to such a label: lack of elite international talent, the G-League Ignite prospects not living up to the heights of last year’s team, inconsistencies from the entire collegiate pool and a lack of strong play from freshmen. We’re going to focus on that last point, the freshmen in college basketball, as we aim to learn what we should expect come June.

What we’ve known over the last decade is that more teams are trusting their own developmental systems, prioritizing drafting younger to reap the benefits of their upside for longer periods of time. What we want to know is whether the drafting trend will continue even in a year when very few one-and-done candidates clearly stand out?

The best way to predict what will happen is to dive into the trends, then seek to apply them to this class. We did a similar piece, a longform video on the sophomores of the 2022 class, earlier this Winter. The video broadly mentioned the weak freshman class contributing to a potential rise in sophomores being drafted; today is the day we dive into the specifics to see if that hypothesis should hold up.

The Trends

At least 17 freshmen (collegiate one-and-dones) have been drafted in four of the last five drafts. That number does not include the players who are the same age as those one-and-dones, such as LaMelo Ball, RJ Hampton, Jalen Green or Jonathan Kuminga, who declared during their first draft-eligible season. We may know it intuitively without looking at the data, but the NBA Draft is getting younger:

The uptick in draftable freshmen took place in the middle of the last decade, as NBA general managers began to shift their thinking on drafting players before they are ready to make an NBA impact. Investing younger, with all the developmental resources available within a franchise, would allow them to reap the benefits longer, and a four-year investment seemed smarter in a younger, high-reward guy than an older prospect who is further along in their trajectory. We can see when the shift started to take place from 2014-2017.

The challenge in anticipating how that impacts the 2022 draft class is greater than just looking at a trend. Do the teams draft players simply because they declare, or do they declare because they know they have a good chance of getting drafted in the first round? Put another way: does the talent necessitate the rising numbers or the demand for younger guys?

Elite freshmen who are one-and-dones have always declared and gotten into the lottery. There hasn’t been an overwhelmingly notable increase in lottery picks going to these players since 2012, though the top of drafts are still trending younger (thanks to international alternatives and the G-League Ignite).

The real changes came to the rest of the first round. Teams at the back-end of the teens and even into the twenties aren’t following the old formula of drafting a more “win-now” player as often as they used to. Picks are being traded at the end of the rounds to acquire good veteran pieces as well, sending draft selections to rebuilding teams willing to go younger for timeline purposes. There were seven freshmen taken between picks 15-30 in each of the last two drafts. There were an average of two drafted in those same spots in 2012 and 2013.

More notable is the second round, still baren of one-and-done candidates. No more than a handful have been taken there over the last decade, as second-round picks have been valuable for teams to stockpile international stash prospects when going younger. Most second-round contracts, if signed, are for a shorter period of time (two or three years) that don’t lend themselves well to the necessary long-term development for such young players.

The Immediate Impact

The crop of one-and-done candidates in 2022 has been regarded as a bit of a weaker pool in comparison to years past. Three freshmen — Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero — are the elite players who belong in the top-ten of any draft class, sticking with the longstanding trends of the last decade and beyond. After them, an obvious dearth of freshmen with lottery likelihood exists, and there is a major glut of prospects teetering on the line between the first and second rounds.

Let’s look at, as of early February, the power rankings and likelihoods of positioning for this class in our minds.

Tier 1: The Freshman Top-5 Locks

Paolo Banchero, Duke
Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
Jabari Smith, Auburn

In all likelihood, these are the three best players in this draft class and would be top-seven picks in nearly any other draft. Banchero is a polished 6’10” scorer with a high feel for the game and elite mid-range prowess. His frame and perimeter skill makes him attractive in any class. Smith, a stretch big with legitimate defensive potential, looks like the best prospect on the floor every time he’s out there.

Holmgren is a bit different, a non-elite scorer whose defensive potential and length are so mystifying. He does a little bit of everything, is over seven-feet tall and is drilling 3-pointers at a 40% clip. Despite concerns with his frame, he’s the type of unique talent that goes in the top half of the lottery every year. All three are not only no-brainers to declare but the three best prospects available in 2022.

Tier 2: Lottery Frontrunners

Jalen Duren, Memphis
AJ Griffin, Duke
TyTy Washington, Kentucky

We could argue about the specifics of this class and its (perceived) relative weakness in comparison to other drafts until the cows come home. What we feel comfortable saying with these three prospects is that they’d push for the lottery in almost any other class based on their age, youth and body of work. Duren and Griffin, in particular, are incredibly young for their class and are producing at high enough levels to warrant significant lottery discussion.

Duren, Griffin and Washington are all guys that, at this point in time, are likely to go in the lottery. Duren is a young, mobile big man who fits in the modern NBA. Both he and Griffin, on a scoring tear as he gets healthy, were once regarded as potential top-five selections. It’s unlikely the luster completely disappears. Washington, a skilled shot-maker with some great lead guard traits, is producing in a program known for sending great scoring guards to the NBA. With the trend of Kentucky combo guards like Tyler Herro, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker and more going in the lottery, Washington’s circumstances make him an ideal candidate in any draft class.

The top two tiers of freshmen bring us to six lottery likelies, a sturdy number and more than we saw in 2020 (only five). The dropoff comes in the certainty of how many players will be in the next tier and which will opt to return to school.

Tier 3: Mid-1st Darlings

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Milwaukee
Kendall Brown, Baylor
Max Christie, Michigan State
Jeremy Sochan, Baylor

Whether lottery picks or not, that 13-20 range is typically a solid landing spot for a few college one-and-dones. This year, each of the four names listed have lottery potential, but there are also reasons to easily see them sliding to the later parts of the first round. Regardless, there is clear first-round potential present that becomes much more attractive in a class without much international competition.

Baldwin and Christie are shooting prospects. Christie, the better performer this year, is a good shooting wing who has started to turn it on in Big Ten play. Baldwin, a 6’9” wing who shoots over anyone, hasn’t drilled shots efficiently but has great potential when the right role is found. Shooters have more value than ever in the NBA as role players, and recent drafts have reflected this change, with elder statesmen (Cam Johnson, Corey Kispert) going in the mid-1st and other names (Kevin Huerter, Luke Kennard) garnering looks with less of a collegiate resume.

Sochan and Brown, two Baylor prospects, are toolsy defensive-minded wings. Brown is a higher-ceiling athlete and defender but is far behind Sochan in terms of consistent offensive impact. Both are balls of clay with enough moldable upside that it would be difficult to envision either not getting taken in the top-20 at this point.

Tier 4: 1st Round is more likely than not

None

Here’s where the relative lack of depth of the class catches up. There are ten guys above who should safely be considered first-rounders should they declare. If all ten declare and are the only ones taken, that would be the lowest number of collegiate one-and-done players drafted since 2014. Sure, there are other circumstances at play, such as two G-League Ignite candidates in Jaden Hardy and Dyson Daniels in the mix, but a lack of an overwhelming international class negates those externalities.

If you ask us, all ten players above should and will declare. The others below, who are truly on the border, are full of intrigue. Do they see the weak externalities (lack of international slam dunks, an older crop of competition) as the opportunity to jump in and take the risk despite their uncertain performance? Or do they see the trends of very few second-round picks going to freshmen over the last decade and return to school?

Tier 5: Truly on the border

Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
JD Davison, Alabama
Caleb Houstan, Michigan
Harrison Ingram, Stanford
Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
Josh Minott, Memphis
Trevor Keels, Duke
Peyton Watson, UCLA
Blake Wesley, Notre Dame

This draft class is lighter on lead guards. Chandler, Davison and McGowens all project as potential lead guards. Chandler is small, which teams won’t love, and is a rather inconsistent shooter. Davison has major turnover issues and is the most raw prospect of the group. McGowens is a scoring-minded guard with good raw tools. The lack of guards around them could lead to all three declaring and several of them jumping into the first round.

Peyton Watson and Josh Minott are impressive physically, the more stereotypical case of athletes who don’t know how to play yet but have real NBA potential due to their natural gifts. In a weakened year like this, NBA teams could opt to prioritize that mold with a late first-rounder. Both should be solid NBA defenders, and taking the gamble on developing their offensive packages allows a pro team to mold them how they wish.

Every other player on the list has a compelling case. Caleb Houstan’s 3-and-D game, as well as movement shooting, makes him a blendable prospect on NBA rosters. Blake Wesley is by far the best scorer of the group and could even knock on the door of the lottery if he gets out of his current slump. Harrison Ingram is a big-bodied creator who is really intriguing. Trevor Keels is young, shoots it well in theory and is a physical specimen.

Each of the nine players in this class has a compelling case. Not all of them can declare and have success getting where they want, though. We’ve never seen 19 one-and-done players drafted before.

Tier 6: Dark Horses

John Butler, Florida State
Matthew Cleveland, Florida State
Daimion Collins, Kentucky
Alex Fudge, LSU
Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga
Tyrese Hunter, Iowa State
Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown

A few other players stand out as late names to add themselves to the mix and intriguing athletes to watch. Should they declare, the right team or situation could find themselves infatuated with the talent and draft them. Collins and Hickman are the only guys who strike us as being draftable in the top-40 as of now.

The Long-Term

There’s been a silent war the last two or three years unfolding before our eyes. Fought between college basketball and alternative routes, the battles wages on for which is the best route to take for players with NBA dreams. Some believe in playing professionally, going to the NBL in Australia or the G-League Ignite program, to prepare against the best competition possible. Others will seek pathways like Overtime Elite, alternatives to playing pro competition but being in an environment where individual development is paramount.

Threatened by either approach is the collegiate model, which became slightly more enticing last year due to NLI legislation that allows college athletes to profit off their namesake. Transfer portals are an internal threat for young prospects though, as older players who succeed at the mid-major levels become high-major mercenaries, either as grad transfers or move-ups earlier. College coaches get paid to win and the increased pressure on that position calls for transfers to be utilized when available; older players are known commodities when young, talented freshmen are susceptible to being misevaluated or miscast.

What we’re seeing is a changing college basketball landscape. Of the players on the borderline of draft declarations in tiers 5 and 6 for us, all but one (Nolan Hickman) are major conference talent. More now than ever, a return to college for a sophomore season is a risk. Will there be other transfers who come in to threaten my time? Will the next crop of freshmen simply be better and squeeze me from an increased role? Is it even safe to predict an NCAA Tournament berth when our opponents can all reload so quickly?

Agents and brokers who run the OTE or G-League Ignite programs are watching closely to the decisions made by freshmen to declare and by NBA teams on draft night. If, in a perceived weaker class, several freshmen get stranded and left undrafted or toiling away in the second round, it will be a huge win for alternative pathways.

College will always have the glory, the national television, the raucous environments for games, the prestige of March Madness and excellent coaching. Society as a whole is shifting more towards a “what can you do for me now?” way of life, for better or for worse. It’s easy to see how, if the proof is in the pudding for a 2022 draft class that becomes the aberration on the draft trend for young players, top-tier prospects may start looking elsewhere to prepare for the pros.