Orlando's Decision: The Case for Chet Holmgren
Orlando is officially on the clock, and their uniquely young roster may influence which potential superstar they deem best to build around. Could Chet Holmgren be the best fit?
Let’s tune the rumors out for a second. Forget who you hear about with what the Orlando Magic are likely to do at the first overall pick.
Take a deep breath. Clear your mind of those perceptions. Now ask yourself this question: who should the Magic take first overall?
To some, the answer is as simple as figuring out the best player available. There will be plenty of different opinions on who the best player is in this draft class, with the majority of answers focusing on Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey or Jabari Smith. We agree that they are the four best prospects in this class, and we’ll focus on them as well.
In trying to differentiate between them, most pundits will default to valuing the “best player available”. They’ll look at the tape, make a determination of who they like best as a prospect, and then rank the guys in that order. But when a top-tier of talent is so closely grouped together, fit within a franchise does have some influence on who the “best” available guy is.
Think of fit as a tiebreaker amongst tiers where they all have a legitimate case as the best player available. Fit should only be defined, at the top of a draft with these elite prospects, as the fit next to already-existing franchise pillars who the team knows they want to build around. For the Magic, only one prospect really stands out as being that guy: Jalen Suggs.
As a result, the fit between Suggs and Ivey likely strikes Ivey farther down the board in Orlando. Ivey may be better, and/ or the two could find ways to fit together, but without a great deal of discernible difference in our overall evaluation of Ivey and the other three at the top of this draft, he gets punished a bit because of his fit.
So let’s talk about Chet Holmgren — specifically in the context of the roster, team building, design and everything else in Orlando. How might the Magic and general manager John Hammond build a champion around him? What players need to be prioritized next once they make their decision to draft him?
The Case for Chet Holmgren
The great Fran Fraschilla has a common saying about basketball and the stats in the game: the stats indict, the film convicts. If we’re going to put Chet Holmgren on trial for the top pick, let’s start with the indictment and dive into some stats.
Holmgren’s major draw is on the defensive end of the floor. He’s a 7’0” rim protector who can move on the perimeter, switch onto guards and has the elite combination of instinctive movements and ferocious competitiveness. Just the switchability and rim protection is a coveted duo. Add to it the IQ and high block rate (5.4 blocks per 40 minutes) and Holmgren stands out as one of the most elite defensive prospects in recent memory.
Analytic models back up that impact. His 6.6 stocks (steals + blocks) per 40 minutes are third in this draft class, and more than both Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero combined. His defensive plus-minus (D-RAPM) is the highest number of any college basketball player since 2013, and it’s not particularly close. Chet registered a 7.18 RAPM on that end. No prospect has gotten over 6 in the last decade.
The metrics indicate Chet is the most elite defensive prospect in that timeframe, and the film backs it up quite a bit. He sniffs out drives on the rim, jumps vertically, blocks from behind, bothers guys in isolation, can switch, drop or high hedge against ball screens, pick off passes as a helper… he does pretty much everything.
The most valuable part of his defensive acumen is that he can be a defensive anchor and linchpin without being the 5. His weak-side shot blocking will be there no matter who he guards or if he’s involved in defending the pick-and-roll. He covers ground so easily with his mobility and long reach. Roster versatility in the long-term isn’t hampered by drafting Holmgren; the Magic have time to decide what type of frontcourt partner to pair with their future superstar. While Chet would be best-served early in his career not playing the 5, the long-term versatility he brings is absurdly valuable.
If we find that space creation is the most important tool on offense, no prospect appears better at taking away space than Holmgren. He may be difficult to referee due to his gangly arms and skinny frame, but with requisite strength to play the 5, he’ll be contesting every shot at the rim with discipline and take away angles from any pick-and-roll driver. With Holmgren in Drop coverage, the Magic can surround he and Jalen Suggs with more offensive-minded talent while having a strangehold of two great defenders at the book ends of the rotation.
Then there’s the possibility of building a switchable defense for late-clock situations. The Magic have prioritized length before, likely for these very reasons. Jonathan Isaac is insanely switchable. Franz Wagner can guard a few different spots effectively. Wendell Carter Jr. is a versatile frontcourt piece. Suggs has enough strength to survive up the lineup. The point with Chet is this: he’s a frontcourt selection that doesn’t tether your franchise to one form of defense either way, and can be an elite piece in either.
Offensively, there are plenty of scouts who don’t necessarily have the imagination or foresight to project Chet Holmgren as a top creator. His combination of skills is rarely seen, and the impact is hard to replicate. We know he’d be elite in transition, where his ball handling, defensive impact to create blocks/ steals, and rebound-and-run nature all show out. Holmgren was elite on trailer 3-pointers, has ground coverage to get to the rim quickly and is a fantastic passer.
In the half-court, finding the fit has been a little more difficult. He’s not just an interior finisher, so drafting him to be exclusively a roll man or a guy in the dunker spot is and feels underwhelming. It’s nice to know that Chet can succeed in that role, though: he was 80-100 (a mind-boggling 80%) at the rim in the half-court. How insane is that number? Per the Synergy Sports player tracking database, that’s the highest mark since Udoka Azubuike in 2016-17.
We do also feel comfortable saying he can shoot. Chet shot 39% from 3 on the season, and while there were peaks and valleys in his performance, he was 17-42 (40.5%) on spot-up jumpers, and very impactful in the corners. Big men who don’t set screens need to be able to space the floor to the corners to keep spacing for their offense, and Chet’s high release and touch from the spot show that ability. Play him more as the screener, he’ll thrive on the roll and be a lob threat. Play him in the dunker spot and he can catch-and-finish. Stretch him to the corner next to another PNR big and there’s value to be had.
The lack of imagination around Chet’s future comes in trying to figure out how to harness his unique handling and great passing ability. Chet is long as hell and gets to the basket (or at least inside the lane) by going around players, not by outrunning them. He doesn’t play at multiple speeds (or even a quick speed), and defaults to his spin move to protect the ball from undercutting drivers. While we’d love to see more diversity there, his impact could be greater on an NBA floor, with greater spacing around the 3-point line than simply seeing Drew Timme standing on the opposite block all day. Closing lineups with Chet at the 5, seeing him create atop the key, could have real offensive potency.
Frankly, there are so many unexplored areas with Chet’s game that a willing NBA franchise can tap into. Pick-and-roll reps as the handler? Holmgren was 2-3 scoring out of those looks, according to Synergy. Inverted handoffs from little-to-big? Chicago or Zoom actions to send him off movement pre-catch? Chet is the type of prospect whose diverse skill set really rewards the innovative and imaginative.
From a fit perspective, Holmgren opens up more doors than he shuts. There’s a relational aspect to fit as well: we already know there is chemistry between Chet and franchise point guard Jalen Suggs. The two were teammates at Minnehaha Academy in Minnesota in high school, had an insane amount of success (four consecutive state championships) and both played for Mark Few at Gonzaga. The bond and relationship between the two could stabilize the franchise in ways they’ve been searching for since Dwight Howard left a decade ago.
Too many folks concerned with Chet Holmgren’s game focus on what he isn’t: chiseled, strong or conventional. The strength can come over time, and conventional complaints really says more about you than Chet: failure to see how modern and mobile his game is on both ends is telling on yourself for not watching the direction the NBA game is heading.
Orlando should make an investment in the future with Chet. Go for the dominant defender, a franchise-changer on that end who stabilizes that end of the floor while having so much untapped offensive potential. More than any of these top-three prospects, Chet’s game can explode offensively in an NBA system in ways he didn’t get to show in college. To say that about a guy who shot 80% at the rim, 40% from 3 and scored 3.8 PPG in transition is pretty remarkable.