Orlando's Decision: The Case for Jabari Smith
Orlando is officially on the clock, and their uniquely young roster may influence which potential superstar they deem best to build around. Is Jabari Smith the right guy for them?
Let’s tune the rumors out for a second. Forget who you hear about with what the Orlando Magic are likely to do at the first overall pick.
Take a deep breath. Clear your mind of those perceptions. Now ask yourself this question: who should the Magic take first overall?
To some, the answer is as simple as figuring out the best player available. There will be plenty of different opinions on who the best player is in this draft class, with the majority of answers focusing on Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey or Jabari Smith. We agree that they are the four best prospects in this class, and we’ll focus on them as well.
In trying to differentiate between them, most pundits will default to valuing the “best player available”. They’ll look at the tape, make a determination of who they like best as a prospect, and then rank the guys in that order. But when a top-tier of talent is so closely grouped together, fit within a franchise does have some influence on who the “best” available guy is.
Think of fit as a tiebreaker amongst tiers where they all have a legitimate case as the best player available. Fit should only be defined, at the top of a draft with these elite prospects, as the fit next to already-existing franchise pillars who the team knows they want to build around. For the Magic, only one prospect really stands out as being that guy: Jalen Suggs.
As a result, the fit between Suggs and Ivey likely strikes Ivey farther down the board in Orlando. Ivey may be better, and/ or the two could find ways to fit together, but without a great deal of discernible difference in our overall evaluation of Ivey and the other three at the top of this draft, he gets punished a bit because of his fit.
So let’s talk about Jabari Smith — specifically in the context of the roster, team building, design and everything else in Orlando. How might the Magic and general manager John Hammond build a champion around him? What players need to be prioritized next once they make their decision to draft him?
The Case for Jabari Smith
Believers in Smith’s upside see an isolation scorer that is impossible to guard. While we could talk all day about the value of the play creation, Smith is the definition of a play finisher. At 6’10” with one of the best jumpers we’ve ever seen for someone his size, he’s the right combination of an unbelievably high-floor third star with a major upside to score the ball over the top of any defender one-on-one.
Smith shot 42% from 3-point range as a freshman at Auburn, carrying them up to a number-one ranking in the country for much of the year. He did that while battling in the SEC, one of the toughest leagues in the nation. Place him with a great pick-and-roll guard who puts pressure on the rim (like Jalen Suggs could become), Smith is the perfect complement. He can space the floor around those ball screens, spotting up in the corners and on the wings just ready to drill shots. In spot-up situations, Jabari shot 33-67 (49.3%) on catch-and-shoot jumpers. That was the 19th best mark in the entire country for players on his volume — he really is a world-class shooter.
Jabari is also a great pick-and-pop partner if the Magic want to utilize he and Suggs in those actions. Smith is likely to play the 4 at the next level and not the 5, so the Magic would have to put a big in the dunker’s spot or clear another stretch big out to the corners. For what it’s worth, Wendell Carter Jr. shot 36.4% on corner 3-pointers this year, a sturdy number that proves this could be a sound strategy for the current team. Smith’s impact on those pick-and-pop jumpers were once again elite: 8-15 (55%) on no-dribble jumpers.
Floor spacing with Carter in the corners and a high pick-and-pop with Jabari opens up the rim for the guards on this roster to attack to the hoop without much fear of clutter. If Suggs is every bit of the livewire athlete with the ball in his hands that we anticipate, the Magic could quickly become an above-average offense, and eventually an elite one.
Smith isn’t just an insane catch-and-shoot prospect, he’s proven himself incredibly efficient on dribble jumpers, too. He made 42 dribble pull-ups in the half-court, registered an eFG% of 48.1% on those jumpers and was the most efficient pull-up scorer of any first-round prospect in this draft.
Such a strong pull-up game translates to many different areas. When Smith is chased off the 3-point line from being an elite threat atop scouting reports, he can easily take one dribble inside the arc or to the side and not lose much impact. If the Magic build a roster with a legitimate 5-man on the interior next to him, getting to the rim could be more challenging, so scoring in the mid-range areas is huge.
Most importantly, the dribble jumper and mid-range scoring prowess helps him become more projectable as a top option on offense. As we mentioned earlier, Smith isn’t a great space creator. He’s a little slow off the bounce, isn’t polished as a handler and plays a little upright/ stiff with his hips. What we’ve seen is that, frankly, those shortcomings may not matter. Smith is a skilled shooter who, at 6’10”, just scores over the top of any contest or defender. He just needs enough space to take one dribble or get to one of his go-to moves and he’ll be able to score. An elite play finisher and scorer.
Our preferred scoring interest tends to be more in-line with the “three-level” model: at the rim, in the mid-range and from 3. Smith clearly checks off the 3-point line and can be diverse in the mid-range when deployed there. He doesn’t put enough pressure on the rim, both off the bounce and in the post (where he fades away and takes jumpers) to comfortably project as a rim finisher right now.
Belief in Smith getting there centers on the fact that there is some athletic potential and profile already present. Improvements to ball handling aren’t the most difficult changes to make, and if he gains them, he can start putting more functional pressure on the hoop. He’s decently athletic in terms of verticality, he just needs to harness that in tight spaces and without a runway.
Earlier this year, we compared Jabari to a Minnesota Timberwolves version of Kevin Love. He can play in isolation when the matchup is there. He can spot up next to other ball handlers when it’s their turn. Or he can run off a ton of screens and really open up the playbook for his team. The creativity, gravity and intricacies of an offense with Smith in it could be incredibly attractive to watch and wildly successful.
Smith only took 12.6 shots per game — a low mark for someone thought to be a primary creator at the next level. That could be seen as a negative, as he’s not as assertive enough or proven when cast as a top option. There were five games this year where he took fewer than 10 shots, and five where he never attempted a free throw.
The lack of major offensive volume could be seen as a positive, though. His offense might be scalable to a higher role, where if he’s taking 17 or 18 shots a night in the NBA, he’s likely scoring 23-28 points per game.
Defensively, Smith is a switchable defender who moves his feet well on the perimeter. He can sit in a stance and guard, and while he’s best against 3s and 4s, he doesn’t look outmatched against great athletes. Jabari likes to crowd smaller guys and really get into them, where his length and wide knees just shut off driving lanes. Few guys can go around him.
Smith is best-served playing in a scheme that has some switching but isn’t necessarily switch everything. He could make sense next to Franz Wagner, another wing on the roster who fits the same bill.
What we haven’t discussed yet is the positional versatility of moving Jabari to the 5 in late-game situations. Anyone who is watching the 2022 NBA Playoffs can notice that, especially in late-game situations, teams are trending small and more towards skill-and-space. The lack of size isn’t about loading plenty of guards into the lineup, but having skilled wings who can all guard up but provide mismatches elsewhere on the other end.
Smith fits that model so well because he can defend on the perimeter but is big enough to go against some 5s. His elite shooting would cause for a nightmare for opposing centers… if teams choose to guard him in that way. Orlando would need to surround him with enough positive playmaking and/or attacking to prevent other teams from cross-matching in those situations.
There really isn’t a ton of risk with Smith if he’s placed in the right role. He’s likely at his best next to another self-creator and in a role where he isn’t expected to go out and create his own while averaging 25 a night. But the fact he’s already an elite floor-spacer gives him so much impact in a smaller role. High reward, low risk, and defensive impact that makes him a plus in any team or system. For Orlando to take Smith, they either should feel incredibly comfortable with Suggs carrying an offense or that their top-three pieces can be strong enough on both ends that the collective carries them to a championship level.