Our Scouting Philosophy: It's All About Space - Pt. 1
Offense is spacing and spacing is offense. Let's clearly define how to scout players that contribute to that idea in a positive way
As many brilliant coaches have said before, “offense is spacing and spacing is offense”. From a coaching perspective, offense is all about the creation of space so that your players have room to get off high-caliber shots. Inversely, defensive strategy should be to take away that space and prevent offensive players from operating effectively within space.
It then stands to reason that, in evaluating prospects, you need to be able to evaluate their relation to space. Do they create enough space for themselves or others to have room to get off high-caliber shots? Do they thrive in one specific area on the floor? Do they need space created for them by teammates or specific sets? Do they convert when space is created?
Defensively, do they limit the individual space that others create within? How many different areas on the floor and different types of players can they do that against? Do they apply pressure on offenses by getting into the ball or playing off it? Can they take away space at the point of attack, at the basket, or both?
One simple metric we look to that is heavily related to space creation is paint touches. Offensive players are judged by their ability to create separation — it’s easier to teach someone what decisions to make once they get free than it is to help them get free. Paint touches hold a ton of value offensively because getting two feet in the lane forces a defense to collapse. The most valuable shot in basketball will always be an uncontested look at the rim, so help defenders rotate to take that away.
Generating constant drives to the rim can accomplish two positives. The first is, most evidently, the opportunity to score at the basket. The second is rotation from the defense, creating kick-out avenues where that lead to wide-open shots on the perimeter. In the old days of basketball, those teammates awaiting kick-out shots were standing in the mid-range often. They’d simultaneously get fewer points for their shot attempt (two instead of three if they move behind the line) and have less separation — space — between them and any defenders trying to recover and contest their shot.
If you’d ask for our view on analytics (and even if you don’t), it’s more about off-ball spacing than it has to do with legitimate shot selection. The notion that mid-range jumpers are bad is a gross oversimplification and mischaracterization of what a metrics-based approach to basketball actually describes. In fact, analytics simply back up the idea that players without the ball should stand behind the 3-point line because, when they shoot uncontested looks, the result for the offensive team is greater than the result from long twos.
That spacing has the added benefit of putting help defenders in a more challenging decision. They have more ground to cover between attending to paint touches and where their man is. Really good 3-point shooters are space creators because the threat of their shot doesn’t just get them guarded more tightly, it gets them helped off of less. Theoretically, those who attack the paint should have more space to get to the rim when surrounded by good shooters.
Defenses can adjust and rotate to the ball, flying around and perfecting their scheme to take away the first look when the ball gets kicked out of the lane. An offensive player or scheme can’t prevent that rotation from happening, but they can punish it as much as possible. NBA teams have figured this out over the last decade, placing 3-point threats in the deep corners.
The dead corner is the spot on the floor that is farthest to rotate and from. Helpers off the corner have a long way to recover if they collapse on the lane, and the next defender (who we call the ‘help-the-helper’ guy) has to fully commit to going to the corner if he rotates from the wing above. When evaluating stationary shooters, corner effectiveness is very important. If the player stationed there is not a threat to score, the rotation of the defense is dead, thus negating the value of the paint touch and getting the defense in rotation.
Basketball is not like football. Athletes need to be able to play on both sides of the floor and be capable of creating space on one end while negating it on another. There are plenty of really good defenders who are elite at taking away space one-on-one, guys who are athletically capable of preventing someone from getting to the paint off the bounce. But they also need to positively contribute in other ways. If they can’t understand help defense and make strong rotations, the paint touches allowed by teammates will lead to open shots elsewhere. If they can’t do anything on offense by making shots or getting paint touches, they become much harder to play since the two ends get closer to canceling each other out.
That’s where the term 3-and-D was born from. If a guy can simply be good enough on defense to prevent space from being created and knock down shots in space created for him, there’s enough value on both ends to be worthy of minutes.
From a scouting perspective, what we’re really looking for in prospects are guys who can log minutes. We can debate and describe the different methodologies or roles on the floor, but the minimal goal is being good enough to play some role. Think about offense and defense in two sliding scales, with net-zero in the middle of each. A really good scorer may register in the green on the offensive scale but horribly on the defensive one. If what they provide when aggregating those two measures is a net negative, they shouldn’t be playing consistent minutes.
It’s our job as scouts to effectively anticipate roles at the next level that we envision these prospects in. Not all roles are created equal. It’s easier to find a replacement-level shooter from the perimeter than it is a major space creator who collapses the defense with the ball by credibly being a threat to score it themselves. It’s even more challenging to find guys who can do both.
We’ve written previously about the three pillars theory to team-building, and it’s something we believe in greatly. Any championship-caliber team needs to have three pillars, and the draft or player acquisition is all about gaining those pillars or the pieces that maximize their strengths. As such, we have to break down prospects into two categories: pillars (alphas) and fillers (role players).
The Alphas: Primary Creation & 1v1 Scoring
The first step of watching any prospect is in trying to diagnose their offensive game and determine whether they can fill the space creation and primary scorer role at the NBA level. It’s the most difficult thing to find, the most valuable on a basketball court and that alone worthy of keeping a player in first-round discussions. The answer we find could be a yes, no, or maybe, but it’s the obvious place to start.
So what are some of those traits to look for, and how do they relate to space creation?
There are athletic traits to start with. Quickness with the ball and separation relative to who will guard them is vital. Players who cant beat an NBA-caliber athlete or defender in a straight line rarely get in the paint: the best offensive pieces worth this primary creation label will be defended by the best athletes, so getting to their spots against athleticism is necessary. Some players get to their spots by sheer speed, others by change of pace and dribble moves. Both are acceptable, though one without the other is a challenge. Length and long strides matter here, too, relative to skill set for their position — space creation is first and foremost about separation at the point of attack.
After looking at those athletic indicators, we look at the simple yet important traits. Ball handling is really important, both in terms of keeping it tight to their body and doing so with their eyes up to scan the defense. Ball handling is what makes separation possible. Also important is what we call “wiggle”. Guys who are naturally shifty and hard to stay in front. They’re crafty and great at playing angles. They have individual creativity.
Individual space maximization: Scoring without the paint touch
We’ll talk a lot about space creation, but space maximization is important as well. If a guy can break away from his man one-on-one but cannot hit a pull-up jumper going to his left, he can be guarded differently. Players who are able to maximize space get to capitalize on any sliver of space they’re given. That is where and why we talk so much about three-level scorers.
Let’s talk about analytics and defense. Defenses are savvy and not just groupings of athletes who run around and stick with their man. There are so many layers to attempting to negate space no the floor, and one of the biggest revolves around rim protection. It’s a commonly-used term that gets thrown around to describe shot-blocking in front of the bucket, deterrence of layup attempts/ drives, and having the traits to cover a lot of ground. We’ll talk later specifically about those defensive traits for individuals, but it’s worth mentioning rim protection now as we analyze the team context for defense.
No defense can take away everything from an offense. Poor defenses take away nothing. Good defenses take away one thing and try to dictate how an opponent tries to beat them. Great defenses take away two things and are really difficult to score on.
Drafting is about finding success against those great teams. It’s about identifying players who not just will be on the floor, but will be on the floor during championships. What works in the regular season doesn’t always work in the playoffs, simply because defenses become better: they take away multiple looks and pay attention to the specifics of an offense in ways the regular season schedule doesn’t allow.
Here’s where the analytics come in. Most teams understand that their top defensive priority is to challenge shots at the rim, both lowering the success rate of shots taken there and deterring teams from getting many attempts there. Beyond that, the 3-point revolution has caused shots from deep to become vital in today’s game. The vast majority of great defenses are going to take away two levels, leaving one for offenses to thrive: the mid-range.
The online discourse around analytics, as misguided as it is, neglects to understand the value of taking what the defense is willing to give up and beating opponents in the way they continue to select. The Phoenix Suns made it to the NBA Finals a year ago on the backs of Chris Paul and Devin Booker destroying the Milwaukee Bucks from fifteen feet. They are capable of scoring on all three levels, and are efficient enough in the long-two area that their team could construct a winning formula around that shot.
Space maximization is what the Suns really specialized in. They took what was in front of them and scored in it. Defenses take away the rim and closeout tightly to 3-point threats. The best way to maximize the space available to them on the offensive end was to make plenty of mid-ranges. A variety in offensive strongpoints and scoring areas is so important for the best players.
In late clock situations, paint touches are valued less, too. There’s not enough time to craftily back your way into the lane, to go through a bevy of dribble moves or to kick to teammates when help defenders collapse. Instead, space creation comes down to getting your own shot off, one-on-one, wherever you have the ball.
Not all teams are fortunate enough to choose who has the ball in their hands in a late-clock situation. The best teams have multiple options on the floor at a time who can create their own shot in a few seconds or less. The same athletic traits for acquiring paint touches are important for separation here, but the value of the shot becomes infinitely more important. For instance, the ability to create separation off a step-back is important but holds no value if there isn’t a natural talent for scoring off the step-back.
We’ve seen so many different types of All-Stars execute late-clock scoring at a high level. Kevin Durant has a smooth jumper and, at 6’11”, can shoot over the top of anyone. Luka Doncic has a wide array of moves, including step-backs and lean-ins for free throws. Damian Lillard and Steph Curry as smaller guards rely on step-backs, but in different ways: Lillard gets a ton of separation from his man, while Curry needs less due to his lightning-quick release. James Harden lulls defenders to sleep with his entrancing dribble moves, then has a quick transition to a jumper with pristine footwork. Giannis Antetokounmpo covers so much damn ground that all he needs is one dribble to get within range of a layup or finger roll. There’s more than one way to skin this cat. Based on the physical characteristics of each prospect, we can anticipate which way they should choose and evaluate them based on their aptitude in those areas.
Killing the Help: Manipulating the space & the nuance of being an alpha
We talk a lot about scoring as being an important trait of being a top option, and it really is the bedrock of the role. After all, without being a credible threat to score, help defenders won’t collapse and teammates don’t get open. So long as a primary creator can demand that attention once they achieve separation, they’ll be a worthy option to play with the ball in their hands.
Notice the use of the term primary creator and not primary scorer. Being a top option is about more than just scoring. It can be about scoring just enough to be a threat to collapse help defenders and then making the right pass often enough to generate shots in space for their teammates. Think about a guy like LaMelo Ball, a Chris Paul or a Darius Garland. All three are fantastic scorers in their own right, but their value as a primary option comes from the combination of scoring and passing, in their decision-making and the amount of wiggle they play with.
There are plenty of good scorers and plenty of good passers, guys who are competent in both areas but not what primary option material is made of. The difference between the best of the best in this regard: is how consistently they not only read the defense but manipulate it to get their desired result.
We’ve talked a lot in the past about lessons we’ve learned through years of doing this. And the biggest lesson we’ve gained, or the area we’ve changed our philosophy on the most, is in the value of feel. High-feel prospects have a sort of “it” factor, the type of indescribable intangible that makes decision-makers’ skin crawl and analytical thinkers pull their hair out. The best way to try to describe it: is the ability to know what the right play is before anyone else on the floor and then make it.
Last summer, we did a podcast with Fran Fraschilla where he talked about pick-and-roll passing as being the easiest trait to teach guys when they make it to the NBA. To an extent, he is right: teaching the fundamental traits and rudimentary aspects of attacking out of ball screens is not that challenging for NBA coaches, within NBA spacing and with so many threats on the floor. Yet there’s a certain level that the great ones get to that cannot be taught. That foresight possessed by high-feel players is the difference between being good and great.
High-feel guys have a higher ceiling than some of their athletic traits may indicate. They also have higher ceilings than their scoring arsenal may indicate. The great part about ball screens — and why they’re utilized so much at the top levels of basketball — is that one way or another they create space for the ball handler to operate in. Once in that space, they’ll make the right play.
We’ve seen an added emphasis on the floater or runner as an important skill for smaller guards to master. Rim protectors stand five feet and in, simultaneously challenging a little guy to go at them physically and daring them to take the shot from farther away that is more analytically acceptable. It’s an important shot to be great at in today’s NBA, where Drop pick-and-roll coverage is common and these elite guards get pushed off the three-point line.
We can judge prospects based on how they’ve already succeeded on runners/ floaters in college. Other aspects are important in diagnosing the micro-skills necessary to be great at it. Can they do it with either hand or go in either direction? Do they have a quick transfer from dribble to floater? How’s their touch overall on other layups?
The same thought process applies to so many aspects of pick-and-roll play. Pull-up shooting is really important to not just making mid-range jumpers that are given but stretching defenses to go above the screen and challenge the handler out to 3-point range. Passing with either hand, especially off a live dribble, is so important to not get stuck to one side of the floor. Lob passes to rollers, hitting the short roll when an aggressive defense comes, throwing skips and reading the low man who tags the roll, utilizing a hesitation dribble at the right moment when coming around a screen, snaking to the other side to force a switch out of Drop coverage, Nashing when pushed baseline to keep the dribble alive and avoid getting pinned to the corner.
They’re all important features for a lead handler to possess, and while most can be taught or improved, adding a player who can do all those things — and learn other nuances when they arrive in the NBA — are the ones to build around. Trae Young came into Atlanta with such an advanced feel in the pick-and-roll (and elite scoring ability out of it) that they would work on other areas of his game. Now in year four, he’s among the league leaders at drawing fouls because he’s worked on adding that craft to his game.
As long as there are ball screens being set, high-feel playmakers who are credible scorers can exist and thrive as primary creators. Some high-feel guys don’t need ball screens, and some combine the ability to score in their own created space with elite feel out of the pick-and-roll. Most perimeter primary options, if not all, operate in one of those two areas: picks or in isolation. These are many of the traits we look for to evaluate them and how they operate in space.
But what about those who aren’t perimeter-based scorers? Can they still be primary options, even in an NBA that is decreasing its emphasis on the post-up? The simple answer is yes, but the threshold for dominance and impact is currently much higher than that of perimeter guys.
Back to the basket: Defining the threshold for primary post players
The existence of players like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, big men who are the bedrocks of title contenders while playing a primary role on the blocks, debunk the myth that the league is all about guard play. What their dominance also illustrates is just how damn good a big man has to be to command the top role on his team as a back-to-basket threat.
By our measure, bigs tend to be the easiest players to project in the modern NBA. Their roles are often tidy and defined on both ends around a guard-centric attack. We’ll discuss the role players in a future section, but for years we’ve operated under specific criteria for taking big men early in the draft, in a range where a team would traditionally go to draft their franchise pillars. Without describing those criteria in-depth, it boils down to bigs being able to check at least four of these five areas:
Protect the rim as a weak-side shot-blocker
Finish plays off the pick-and-roll as a roller and short-roll playmaker
Excel in Drop coverage
Excel or possess the ability to switch ball screens defensively
Consistently make shots to 3-point range, either atop the key or in the corners
In one sense, those categories only apply to those big men who are not dominant enough to be top offensive options. In order to feel comfortable taking a non-offensive pillar (because there can be pillars to a team who aren’t top offensive options), they have to do many things well while being great in one area. It’s worth noting that drafting someone high is not always the same as being one of that franchise’s three pillars. Sometimes the perfect filler piece and role player is worth an early draft selection if it maximizes the spacing impact for the pillars already in place.
In another sense, these criteria still need to be checked in addition to being a top scorer for those qualified to fulfill that designation. Nikola Jokic won MVP as an elite passer and scorer who makes magic out of nothing and can really score one-on-one down low. But he’s a capable 3-point shooter atop the key, has drastically improved as a big in drop coverage, has turned himself into a solid rim protector and is the world’s best short roll playmaker. He wins MVP awards because he can do all that and be a top scorer. The same goes for Joel Embiid in Philadelphia.
What sets Jokic and Embiid apart from their contemporaries is the physical immovability they possess. Space for perimeter players is about getting to their spots and thriving once they get there. The same goes for bigs! Jokic and Embiid, once they get to the block, are immovable. Even the best and biggest that the NBA has to offer cannot push them off their spots and get them out of scoring zones.
Being a great post scorer is about being statistically impactful enough for it to be a better shot for your team than any other look. Among all big men to receive at least four post-ups per game, both Jokic (1.134 PPP) and Embiid (1.075) are the top two in the NBA. Those metrics are better than most teams get out of any other action: an NBA team must shoot 38% from 3 in order to match the output of a Jokic post-up.
They have individual traits that are really important to their success. Both are very skilled with their footwork, have great touch on their hook shot, have a clearly definable go-to-move and counter-move, great touch at the rim and finish thru contact.
What allows them to be the hub of their team’s offense is their passing, though. Both are skilled enough scorers to command double-teams, meaning they alter not just the space they play in but the space for their teammates. Double teams create open shots for other teammates, and the only way doubles in the post make sense is if a scorer is just that dominant down there and all others of removing them from the post (fronting, riding them out pre-catch, etc.) are ineffective.
Jokic and Embiid are wonderful passers. Their natural body type and scoring dominance allows them to play on the blocks for stretches, but the true volume comes from the combination of scoring and playmaking.
Hopefully, we notice just how complete these guys have to be to become top options. They have to check multiple boxes that all role players check. They have to be huge and immovable. They have to be skilled as passers when teams double. It’s such a rare combination that drafting bigs with the intent of them becoming this type of prospect is not the norm.
There are other big men who are top options and pillars, but it’s because they can be so elite at one (or more) of those aforementioned checklist items. Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite 3-point shooter for a big and has some perimeter creation skill. Bam Adebayo is a dominant defender in any scheme while being a phenomenal passer; he’s far from a top offensive option. These guys all very well could be the best player on their playoff team, but they aren’t carrying their team as offensive options in ways that are different than perimeter players. They negate space or capitalize on it when it’s made for them, but they aren’t elite at creating space for both themselves and others.
Part Two of our series features how to evaluate players who specialize in negating space for scorers.
Great post. I would add to the first section on Alphas - I think a primary scorer (or offensive engine as I say) needs a sustainable competitive advantage they can use. You rightly identify speed and handles as two primary weapons. But I wouldn't discount others like shooting, strength, and feel. While guys like Curry and Lillard are certainly fast, they are not speedsters compared to most PGs and while they have good handles, neither excelled because their handles were in the top 5% of all PGs in the NBA. However, their shooting was so lethal (top 1%) that it forced defenders to press them and bite on fakes with even a sliver of daylight, which allowed them to get to the hoop, even with only good speed and handles for an NBA PG. And nitpicking a bit, but with guys like Giannis and LeBron, it's the combination of size/strength that has allowed them to consistently score.
All of this is to say, I'd open the aperture a bit on the definition. Beyond speed and handles, it's any consistently exploitable advantage. It's something I am always asking myself, especially at the top of the draft, what can this player excel at that they could exploit in the NBA to consistently create advantages, but over time I have found the set of potential advantages to be broader and widening my view has helped to identify some stars that I might have missed.