Patient Care: Why Jaden Hardy Needs Time
A rough start in many ways shouldn't take away from the rarity of what the guard does well
“Patience demonstrates our understanding and acceptance that sometimes, things must unfold in their own time.”
— Jon Kabat-Zinn
Instant gratification is the way of life in the 21st century. Access to endless information digitally, as well as the tools for how to attain it with the click of a few buttons, has altered the way we live. Society has progressed technologically so much over the last 25 years that many great advances have been made possible.
The unintended consequence of such changes: a lack of patience when success doesn’t come right away. If our webpage takes more than ten seconds to load, we incessantly hit refresh. We complain when our Amazon package, being shipped from 3,000 miles away, takes more than 48 hours to arrive. We roll our eyes and feel victimized by a fifteen-minute delay at the airport.
At the risk of sounding like the proverbial old man yelling at the clouds, this isn’t (necessarily) a rant on the failures of society. More than that, this is a critique of how those societal trends are driving us away from finding the value in those investments that simply require a little bit of patience.
Immediate returns have not been overwhelmingly positive for G-League Ignite guard Jaden Hardy. Through nine games, our preseason top prospect is shooting a mere 33.3% at the rim, 28.8% on pull-up jumpers and tallies 0.517 points per possession (PPP) as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He’s been putting up raw numbers — averaging 18.3 points per game — due to his shot selection, as the 19-year-old takes 18.2 field goal attempts a night.
As such, many have abandoned their posts when it comes to Hardy. If you’re watching the games and looking at the stat lines, it’s hard to blame them. Our friends over at No Ceilings put their panic meter for Hardy at a 7. SI’s Jeremy Woo had Hardy 12th in the latest version of his mock draft and surmised that he might be better as a “microwave scorer off the bench.” Friends of The Box and One Podcast such as CJ Marchesani and Stone Hansen have Hardy outside their top-15.
What we’ve seen from Hardy are, yes, struggles and areas of concern for his long-term upside. Combine those with poor shooting performances and it’s easy to see why folks are treating him like the Titanic, jumping off and saving themselves while they can. Like with any tough shot-maker, patience is required through slumps.
Evaluation of G-League prospects next to those in college is not apples to apples. Jumping off the Hardy bandwagon based on what we’ve seen is defensible, but there’s another major trend at play in this draft cycle… several preseason top prospects underwhelming and very few one-and-done candidates stepping up in their place. To us, dropping Hardy far down draft boards is an unfair knock against him that demonstrates either a lack of understanding of his context or strict adherence to numbers through a small sample.
One-on-one, there’s no help against high-level isolation shot-making. The game’s top superstars are the ones who can stand alone with the ball, stare in the face of their defender and create space for a bucket. When we see such promise and ability at a young age, scouts and fans start to salivate. The most coveted skill in all the land rarely pops up in teenagers. That’s why players like Jayson Tatum, Luke Doncic and Anthony Edwards have been so coveted as prospects and so adored in the league.
Jaden Hardy, the 19-year-old from Detroit, possesses the same traits. In high school, Hardy was one of the toughest buckets in the country at Coronado Prep in Nevada. The range, the insane levels of confidence, the space creation thanks to his length… they all stood out as top-pick caliber:
Like so many modern hoopers, Hardy brushed aside the make-believe year that so many do in college and set his sights on the NBA, signing with the G-League Ignite this past Spring. Hardy came with the intention of proving his shot-making and style of play could translate to the highest level of competition available to him. And if it didn’t, he’d have the support staff dedicated to his development so he can make it translate.
That tantalizing upside in isolations and off step-backs is still there for Hardy. His long arms and polished ability to move away from his defender quickly lead to the results that mimic that of Tatum or Edwards. His pull-up arsenal is deep:
When he’s balanced, changes speeds and feels comfortable playing one-on-one with his defender, Hardy makes things happen. He’s one of the ten-most efficient isolation scorers in the G-League as a teenager and shows zero worries about pulling whenever he can.
The issue thus far for Hardy has been a predetermined nature to his game. When he drives, it’s often easy to tell whether he’s going to pull up for his own or keep it moving. Every touch features multiple bounces as he looks to play with his man. Gone are the days where Hardy is so much better than his opponents or teammates that constant dribbling is the best available option. He needs to blend in more with his surroundings. That’s especially prudent now that the Ignite have added Scoot Henderson to the mix, one of the best prospects in the world.
Jason Hart, Ignite head coach and long-time NBA veteran point guard, has a tall task in his first-ever head coaching assignment. There are four young guards that are vying for first-round selections and boosting their draft stock that Hart must juggle minutes and roles for: Hardy, Henderson, Dyson Daniels and MarJon Beauchamp.
Beauchamp’s role as an off-ball scorer, transition finisher and high-volume launcher blends well with any combination of the other guards, especially since he’s big enough to play the 3. But balancing the other three, all of whom are best with the ball in their hands and have questionable feel for spot-up shooting, is a major challenge.
Hart has settled on using Hardy as the most off-ball option of the three. Constant down screens at the elbow (which bring Hardy to the mid-range) or wide pindowns (that Hardy routinely curls to the mid-range) utilize his shot-making on the move, an area far different than his high school usage as a bombs away sniper.
You can see the discomfort throughout. Hardy often takes one dribble before firing an open one in catch-and-shoot scenarios, puts it on the floor immediately when coming off a screen. The seemingly-inevitable result of the multi-guard dynamic is a “your turn, my turn” approach to offense where each guy feels like the next touch needs to be their moment in the sun. Honestly, it’s hard to blame them all.
Hardy likely has the most egregious violations of the shot selection code, pulling for himself quite frequently and pre-determining when his touch is going to be a shot. The result is that he takes a lot of contested shots while teammates are open elsewhere:
Mastering how to play the two-man game, or read the spread pick-and-roll, are vital NBA skills for any high-volume scorer. Hardy has capabilities and has made tons of nice reads as a passer, surprising us in his capabilities at times. To us, it isn’t as much a willingness issue as it is a recognition one. Taming the score-first instincts would run counterproductive to what makes Hardy great in the first place. Teaching him to understand when and where to pick his spots and recognize defensive adjustments earlier can unlock the ability he already has.
Quite frankly, this is a trait Hardy has to master to reach his full potential. His physical limitations — not being an elite athlete while needing space to get his own shot off — necessitate a steady diet of pick-and-rolls. He’s already proven to be quite solid at snaking screens to the mid-range, pulling when teams go under and manipulating picks to get to his spots for a jumper.
We aren’t overly concerned with the shot selection as of now. Yes, it’s an issue to clean up, but it doesn’t detract from the major upside that a player like Hardy possesses. We’ve seen similar complaints come out regarding isolation stalwarts such as Tatum, Edwards or Carmelo Anthony. All were top-three picks in strong draft classes at the top because NBA general managers understand the rarity of such a skill.
The concerns start to flow in for Hardy when it comes to his understanding of how to negate the natural deficits he faces. Let’s call a spade a spade: Hardy has been awful as a finisher, and it’s due to the combination of an unpolished handle and subpar athleticism. That athletic shortcoming isn’t just in one area, such as vertical leaping, change of speed or last-step quickness, it’s in all facets.
Because Hardy doesn’t have the same level of dynamicism as some of his peers, he is prone to making mistakes that appear exposing. For example, when he goes to take a step-back and a defender is in his air space because he doesn’t separate enough, Hardy doesn’t have the time to hang in the air to survey a last-second kickout option.
Great players develop the internal camera to see the entire floor and find those kicks, and I think Hardy has the IQ and vision to pull off those adjustments. He just doesn’t have the time, and against longer and more athletic defenders, that time disappears faster than he thinks.
Similarly, Hardy doesn’t create separation with the dribble as easily as he did in high school. He’ll find himself stonewalled by defenses, simply too physically weak to stay upright when barreling into their midsection:
Physical maturity, which will certainly hit Hardy once or twice before his body is done growing, can be an important fix to this. If D’Angelo Russell can fill out to become the athlete he has in today’s NBA, so can Hardy. In the meantime, Hardy needs to master every trick of the trade to offset those physical deficits.
Our assessment is that we’re currently seeing a player who has gotten by on natural skill and shot-making realize that he needs much more depth to his game. It isn’t just about isolation dribble moves or stationary ball handling anymore. For the first time in Hardy’s career, a nuanced approach is required.
First and foremost, improving his handle is important. He’s a little right-hand dominant, always hoping to get back to his right when he drives left and struggling with off-hand finishes. But Hardy is casual with his dribble, letting it get too far from his body, overdoing it with moves that go nowhere and needing to improve his touch with his left. There are a few times when handling issues either get him in trouble or nearly do when he touches it with his left:
Hardy has already begun to default to playground techniques around the pick-and-roll. His first step isn’t long enough to attack quickly off the catch, and his isolation instincts kick in to negate any immediate drives anyway. He can get to the basket and worm his way through screens, but it takes far too many dribbles to do so.
Thus far, Hardy has done a solid job with his body language, not showing extreme frustration despite the difficult adjustment to G-League play. He rarely hangs his head after turnovers — and when he does, it’s noticeable. He doesn’t let it faze him on the next possession or attempt. And most importantly, he learns from his mistakes.
We’ve already seen a great deal of growth and improvement from Hardy on what does or doesn’t work. He’s more decisive shooting off the catch recently. It’s an important development for the quick-striking arsenal. If Hardy lacks a great first step or elite athleticism, every inch of separation he can get from his man counts. By knocking down spot-up jumpers, defenses will close out tighter to him, giving a half-step advantage to Hardy when he decides to bounce it.
Hardy is become more proactive as a passer, too. He looks so much more controlled as a driver, playing at a pace that allows him to probe the defense while being a threat to score. He’s less pre-determined and more reactive to what the helpers give him. Perhaps that’s why, over his last four games, Hardy is averaging 20 points, 4 assists and only 2.5 turnovers.
There’s a really good PNR passer somewhere in Hardy’s future. Much like Tatum or Melo, the passing acumen gets vastly underrated because it’s so easy to fixate on the shot selection and sheer overconfidence he has in his own jumper. He’s more than just a J.R. Smith or Nick Young-esque scorer with such impressive feel like this.
If Hardy is going to be a pick-and-roll initiator in the NBA, he’s going to need to fulfill one of the great tropes we give to elite offensive players: becoming a three-level scorer. The jump shot, despite some cold outings to start his professional campaign, easily translates to two of the three levels. He’s so good from deep that he could even eventually be seen as a four-level scorer.
The issue has been that first level, an area where a lack of success is ultimately inexcusable. Hardy has been putrid at the rim. He’s rushed, misses easy looks, constantly plays off-balance and shrinks himself next to size. Great players don’t have these major concerns, regardless of what kind of athlete they are:
There are ways to offset some of those concerns. Hardy could take a page out of the Immanuel Quickley playbook and become a master of the runner, floating teardrops over the top of the defense instead of trying to contort and adjust to the best rim protectors in the universe. Those shots offer a closer proximity than jump shots and are necessary in keeping help defenders engaged. If Hardy only pulls up at the elbow time and time again when inside the 3-point line, no low man is going to chip down in the lane and leave his assignment. Improving as a finishing threat goes hand-in-hand with increasing his passing windows, and by extension raising the perception of him as a playmaker.
Right now, Hardy doesn’t have great touch or lower body mechanics on his runners. He suffers from the same lack of pop here that he does at the rim. There’s rarely a plan or premeditated desire to get to his runner, instead it appears like a last-ditch option he nonchalantly discards towards the rim when all other avenues are lost:
Most, if not all, of the issues we’ve diagnosed with Hardy right now are correctable, if not already in the process of being corrected. Tightening his ball handle in functional ways is first on the agenda, and one of the easier skills to accomplish. We aren’t asking him to become Kyrie Irving, but getting more comfortable and simplistic will help negate first-step issues. Hardy must master playing at different speeds and different levels, using hesitations, long strides and deception to create space as much as a push-off step-back that only leads to one result: a jumper.
Next comes finishing. Strength, weight plans and adding athleticism is the most impactful adjustment he can make here. If there’s one area we aren’t qualified to talk on, it is how elite strength-and-conditioning programs make guys more athletic. But we’ve seen it work on multiple occasions. Hardy’s body will evolve and fill out when it’s ready. He can become more athletic, and with that more confident at the rim. What strength should do is retire his desire to avoid contact or shrink himself while airborne for a layup. At 6’5”, Jaden is far from a giant in NBA circles. He’ll need every inch he can get.
Once he becomes a more consistent threat on the basket, the decision-making and playmaking can be adjusted. Where we deviate from standard perception is that we actually like what we see from Hardy here. His growth is already in play, and the audacious shot selection comes with the territory of being a great scorer. We’ll live with a few low-efficiency evenings and jumpers over double-teams because a player of his acumen needs the green light in order to reach his peak.
At the crux of our belief in Hardy figuring out how to play the game he needs to is a belief that Hardy’s process is the right one. Competitive, hard-working gym rats are guys we tend to bet on to solve their own puzzles. More than anything, there’s a recognition of what Hardy looks like if he is able to piece things together. The rarest form of a scoring guard in the NBA that can single-handedly change the trajectory of a franchise. A late-clock scorer in isolation with range to the logo. Those guys don’t grow on trees.
Hardy is one of many first-time draft-eligible prospects in the 2022 class who have struggled out of the gates. UCLA’s Peyton Watson is barely in the rotation, as are guys like Nolan Hickman, AJ Griffin and Bryce Hopkins. Patrick Baldwin Jr. can’t separate from a dust bunny, Caleb Houstan disappears too easily and Jalen Duren has clear offensive limitations. There are plenty of guys who can or should be falling down draft boards, and very few rising to supplant them.
So why does Hardy seem like he’s taking the most precipitous fall of the group, even when he’s playing in by far the most difficult circumstances? If fears are in his efficiency and poor shooting starts, let’s take a step back and remind ourselves how good someone has to be just to warrant that kind of volume. Give Hardy time and the efficiency will come, and if it does, don’t be surprised if the draft stock quickly leapfrogs the other fallers in the class.
Take the long view and hang onto your stock. Hardy will bloom when he’s ready.
Hand-in-hand with a long-term approach for Hardy comes an understanding of the situation he finds himself in for the short term, the context that is so important in prospect evaluation. Context doesn’t just mean throwing out the disclaimer that competition is harder, so struggles are more excusable. Context is about understanding the why behind the what and diving into the daily surroundings and support system for Hardy.
The G-League Ignite, in only their second season as a team and program, is designed to foster development and growth for players who have hopes of being drafted. At the crux of the coaching staff’s goals is player development for the NBA, a drastically different ambition than college or other professional leagues where coaches are tasked with winning games.
College coaches are concerned more with the whole than the individual, and therefore place players in situations that are optimal for the collective outcome. It is within their best interests to hide their players’ vulnerabilities, either by avoiding placing them in situations where they could be exposed or changing schemes so they cannot be unearthed. For example, had Hardy committed to rumored finalist Kentucky and played for John Calipari, his lack of burst and polish as a pick-and-roll handler would not be seen at all. He’d be playing off-ball next to Sahvir Wheeler in the spot that TyTy Washington is currently, darting off screens and having far less of a creative burden on his shoulders.
In the G-League, exposure to the pro game is the goal, whether the player sinks or swims. Jason Hart, the new head coach of the Ignite program, is tasked with letting players like Hardy get a taste for what the pro game will be like and helping them navigate its challenges. Kyle Nishimoto hinted at this on The Basketball Podcast earlier this week:
What seems counterproductive is to recognize that Hardy is purposefully being placed in uncomfortable situations while punishing him on draft boards because he looks uncomfortable. If scouts and evaluators cannot find a way to pause such a notion, the whole mission of the G-League Ignite is bound to fail. We as scouts can do the inverse and tune out a 1-on-0 pro day as a cushy situation designed to help a prospect succeed, so we have to be able to recognize when situations are designed to show a prospect’s warts.
Through nine games, Hardy has shot 34.8% from the field and 30.2% from deep. Most coaches would pull the plug, finding more efficient ways to create offense and lighten the volume that Hardy is facing. Not Hart, and not the Ignite. He’s given the leash to play through his struggles and figure out how to compensate for his mistakes, an invaluable lesson in the long run. For a 19-year-old, especially one with Hardy’s play style and background, it’s better to learn those lessons now than as an NBA rookie.
It is not easy playing 33 minutes a night in a professional league while adjusting to a hybrid on-ball and off-ball role, defending former collegiate All-Conference performers in the primes of their careers and meshing with other teammates in the same boat. Yet Hardy, while handling the external pressures of being seen as the preseason runaway for the top guard in this draft class, remains praised by his coaches and peers for his work ethic and ability to absorb coaching.
Hardy was outstanding, charismatic and very coachable during his public-facing film session with ESPN’s Mike Schmitz. We love to check out these sessions not just to fanboy over Schmitz (one of the best in the game) but to see how players carry themselves, what their personalities are like and if they have a feel for the game from an intellectual standpoint.
He is pretty articulate and studies the game on a big scale. The guys who he learns from and spends time around — James Harden, Damian Lillard, Trae Young — all bring elements of stardom to the table that can be seen in Hardy’s game. The deep range and quick release from Dame, the step-back balance from Harden, the unorthodox footwork to rise into his shot from Young. All those components are star-making ingredients, which raises Hardy’s NBA ceiling to heights very few in this class can come near.
Hardy is used to being an above-average athlete on any floor he’s played on. Standing 6’4” with around a 6’8” wingspan, his size, length, shooting range and ability to dunk with a runway have made him stand out as a solid athlete at lower levels. That isn’t the case now that he’s playing against top-tier talent, and the physical maturity of his opponents in the G-League acts as a sort of culture shock for him. The challenges he’s facing, particularly on the interior, are easily explained by seeing a mundane athlete suddenly find himself outmatched with his natural gifts.
The reality of the situation here is not an excuse, merely a critique of what comes next. Now, it is incumbent on Hardy to figure out the tricks of the trade to get his shots off — and where comparisons to guys like Harden, Lillard and Trae hold so much weight. All three are excellent athletes in their own way, but none are overwhelming with vertical athleticism. They serve as the perfect mentors for Hardy to craft his scoring package after.
What we are seeing is someone in the deep end of the pool without a life vest while everyone else in there with them is buckled up. Of course, it is going to look like Hardy is drowning in comparison. What we are banking on is that he’ll be a stronger swimmer in the long run as a result.
We’re okay with being patient. The long-term upside is tantalizing, and even though there’s realistically a lot that has to go right in order for Hardy to get to his ceiling, the ingredients are there. He has the most impactful superstar skill in his arsenal: deep range self-creation off the dribble. The guys who can consistently knock down shots like that are worth investing in, and one of the reasons why Hardy remains a top-five guy on our board despite his struggles. His type of upside should win out, so long as we’re patient enough to let it come to fruition.
Gots to see it through, my boy.