Patrick Baldwin Jr.: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

A look at the UW-Milwaukee freshman, one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft cycle

Mercifully, Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s freshman season at UW-Milwaukee appears to be over.

After a nagging ankle injury popped up again on Saturday against Purdue-Fort Wayne, Baldwin’s coach announced it likely that he would miss the rest of the season. The consensus top-five recruit only played in 11 games for the Panthers due to the ankle. Now it’s likely he turns his attention to preparing for the 2022 NBA Draft.

It’s hard to know just how much of Baldwin’s struggles this season are due to the ankle, due to a poor situation in Milwaukee or simply poor play. Baldwin finished the year with 12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game on 34.4% shooting and a mere 26.6% shooting from deep. That number is insanely low for a guy whose best role in the pros is as a shooting specialist.

We’ve written about Baldwin before, describing the role he played with the U-19 World Cup team this summer as the optimal one for his professional career. The situation at Milwaukee was anything but optimal. A poor backcourt struggled to create easy catch-and-shoot looks for Baldwin, nor create for themselves. The coach’s son was thrust into a much higher-volume role off the dribble, and the offensively-starved team relied on Baldwin to do far more than he’s good at.

Does that mean Baldwin should have most of his year forgiven due to the imperfect circumstances? Absolutely not. A shooting specialist who struggles to knock down triples as much as he has is concerning. The struggles athletically and on defense, independent of his ankle, will only be exacerbated against better athletes.

There are some legitimate gripes with Baldwin that make it hard to know exactly where to draft him. On one hand, he’s got a great deal of shooting potential, size and the ability to thrive in the right off-ball context. Next to NBA-caliber athletes, he can be a strong spot-up shooter. On the other hand, defensive concerns and a lack of consistent shooting ability negate his biggest strength and make it difficult to justify taking him in the lottery.

Baldwin’s overall draft range is likely the widest of any prospect. We’ve long envisioned him a lottery talent, but compounding injury/ athletic concerns with an ever-increasing sample of poor shooting results make it tough to bet on him in that range.