Peyton Watson, Jake LaRavia & Aminu Mohammed: Draft Decisions

Three wings with unique athletic tools, the pathways to the NBA by all three have been vastly different up to this point

Cue The Clash playing their hit song in their 1981 album Combat Rock. Pour a glass of a nice, full-bodied red. It’s time to talk about one of the more scintillating portions of the pre-draft process: the decisions made by young college athletes to declare for the NBA or return to school.

This Winter, we released a pseudo-guide of questions for bubble prospects to seek answers to before coming to a conclusion. Independent of that advice, there’s a genuine soul-searching process that must occur: what does the player want to do? Regardless of what may be in their best interest, an understanding that their happiness factors in — and cannot be anticipated on the outside — has to take place.

There are some names who truly wrestle with difficult decisions on late first-round spots versus rolling the dice to come back another year and strengthen their case. Those were the paths traveled by Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey just a season ago. Others — the ones we are focusing on in this series — have a bit of a lower draft stock in 2022, making it a more erratic or complex decision.

Hidden in the midst of this draft class are some talented individuals with tantalizing upside, really unrefined tools or enough promise to garner genuine second-round interest. They could forgo an additional year of college and hope that those traits are enough to land them a draft spot. Or they could opt to return, knowing that vast development and improvement is necessary to increase that draft spot.

There are several freshmen who are, to us, pretty easy decisions to declare for the draft or have already declared their intentions. Bryce McGowens of Nebraska, Josh Minott from Memphis, Blake Wesley from Notre Dame and Harrison Ingram from Stanford have all declared already. Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan of Baylor, Kennedy Chandler from Tennessee and Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. all make sense as guys who should come out this year as well.

Six other freshmen — Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duren, AJ Griffin, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and TyTy Washington — feel entrenched in the lottery at this point. Combined, there would then be 14 freshmen to declare for the draft. We’ve written previously both about the breadth of sophomores making a push for first-round status and the trends around one-and-done drafting. The results from those two studies showed that, traditionally speaking, few freshmen go in the second round.

Combine all these together and it squeezes the field a bit for other prospects just a half-step lower than the aforementioned names on draft boards. By our mark there are 15 key names to discuss and very few draft slots to covet. Will any make the leap and become “pre-draft” darlings by coming out before hitting their stride? Are there first-round guarantees even to be had? What should these players do, and what is unique about their specific situation?

Peyton Watson - ATH, UCLA

Stats

12.7 MIN
3.3 PTS
2.9 REB
0.8 AST
0.9 TO
0.6 STL
0.6 BLK
32.2% FG
26.6% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• High defensive ceiling due to athleticism, size and power combinations

• Fantastic in the open floor on both ends: high-flyer on offense

• Gets a good amount of chasedown blocks. Solid help defensive instincts

• Really struggled to score the ball. Would disappear for large stretches

• Has shooting potential; was a solid scorer in high school

• Athletic tools indicate he can be prototypical NBA 4-man

• Game and traits got lost in ISO-heavy UCLA offense

Our Recommendation: Declare for the draft or transfer

Something we don’t discuss a lot for these guys is the inherent risk in returning for school. For Watson, on a loaded UCLA program bringing in key offensive talent next year in Amari Bailey and Adem Bona, there is no guarantee for increased reps on that end of the floor. Watson has a great deal of defensive upside already apparent; a second year of failed offensive development and disappearing on that end could prove the lethal blow to his draft stock.

With those risks, Watson should consider declaring this year and taking his chances on letting the upside from his high school career carry him to a draft spot. He may not go in the top-35, but it’s unfathomable to think of some team not taking a second-round flier on him. A return to UCLA could restore top-20 status, but it could also be the death knell in his draft stock altogether. We’d advise capitalizing on the intrigue and going now, even though he’s such an unknown commodity in a way that can scare NBA teams away.

There is a third option: transfer. Watson could have some suitors on the market in major conferences who would welcome him with open arms. There’s still risk in that strategy, especially if he can no longer hide behind the excuse of inconsistent minutes or role. We’d expect Watson to be open to everything this year, and if the initial feedback is poor for him from NBA circles, he should think heavily about finding a new home where his role is expanded.

Jake LaRavia - W, Wake Forest

Stats

34.2 MIN
14.6 PTS
6.6 REB
3.7 AST
2.7 TO
1.7 STL
1.0 BLK
55.9% FG
38.4% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• Connective tissue type of player due to the multitude of things he does well

• Excellent passer; can break down defense off the bounce

• Fun, creative playmaker with a razzle factor

• Hyperactive defender. Lives in passing lanes, really good shot blocker

• Really good on-ball defender. Uses his length well, is competitive

• Career 37% 3-point shooter on low volume. Solid floor spacer

• Knows how to move off-ball

Our Recommendation: Stay in the draft

LaRavia has already come out and declared that he will at least test the waters, maintaining his option to come back to school. Truthfully, we aren’t certain if Wake Forest can capture lightning in a bottle the way they did this year. He should stay in the draft and become a professional, cashing in while he’s a hot commodity. Shooting 56% from the field and 38% from 3 with a positive A:TO and nearly 3 “stocks” per game… he’s not going to improve those numbers. Go now, young man.

Aminu Mohammed - ATH, Georgetown

Stats

32.2 MIN
13.7 PTS
8.2 REB
1.8 AST
2.2 TO
1.6 STL
37.9% FG
31% 3FG

The Quick Scouting Report

• Bowling-ball athlete with insane leaping ability

• More of a small-ball 4-man than a perimeter player; has no real position

• Gets to the free throw line a ton: 5.5 FTA per game

• Excellent rebounder, plays well in traffic

• Gets most of his easy buckets attacking the rim in transition

• Don’t trust him as a 3-point shooter

• Can play out of control and too aggressively off the bounce

• Sturdy multi-positional defender w/ potential in the right scheme (switching)

• Not a facilitator for others in the half-court

Our Recommendation: Return to School

Last week, Mohammed announced his intentions to declare for the draft and be “fully committed to the pre-draft process” while also maintaining eligibility to return. While testing the waters, we expect Mohammed to be discouraged by what he finds by way of feedback.

Mohammed isn’t ready yet. He’s a bowling ball of an athlete who excels in transition, but he had a ton of flaws in his game that became apparent as opponents figured him out. He shot 36% from the field and 27% from 3 over his final 19 games as a result. His half-court refinement is nowhere near where it needs to be. He got sagged off and passed up plenty of clean looks.

The athleticism is appealing, and he is definitely a name worth monitoring for next year. Reps will be there at Georgetown, and the Big East guarantees a certain spotlight will always be near him. We aren’t the biggest fans of his playstyle, though, and would vehemently advise against declaring in 2022.

Our Pre-Draft Potential Series

Monday: Tyrese Hunter, JD Davison & Taran Armstrong
Tuesday: Moussa Diabate, John Butler & Jaylin Williams
Wednesday: Caleb Houstan, Trevor Keels & Dalen Terry
Thursday: Peyton Watson, Jake LaRavia & Aminu Mohammed
Friday: Malaki Branham, Terquavion Smith & Max Christie

Other names to watch next season: Matthew Cleveland, Florida State; Daimion Collins, Kentucky; Alex Fudge, LSU; Jordan Hawkins, UConn; Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga; Arthur Kaluma, Creighton; Brandon Murray, LSU; Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga.