Providence: Evaluating Elite Power Conference Teams Without Pro Prospects
If the last decade of trends are any indication, there's a future NBA player hiding in plain sight with the Friars
As of this writing, the Providence Friars are 24-3. A win over Villanova in their regular season finale, or in round one of the Big East Tournament, would move the Friars to 25 wins. Unless they improbably lose their next two games, they could enter the NCAA Tournament as a 25-win group with five or fewer losses. A remarkable run for the Friars with Ed Cooley at the helm.
The Friars have emerged as one of college basketball’s best teams from a power conference — and done so without having an immediate NBA prospect emerge. Since 2011, there have been 41 teams in a power conference to win 25 regular season games with fewer than five losses. Three programs have done it consecutive seasons (Virginia in 2018 and 2019, Villanova has two streaks of consecutive 25-win years).
Of those 41 teams, all 41 featured a player to make an NBA roster at some point. 24 of those teams featured lottery picks, 35 featured a first-round draft pick and 40 had some player selected in the NBA Draft. There’s a major correlation between NBA-caliber talent and this level of college basketball success.
That’s right, only one team has achieved this type of season in the last decade without sporting a draft pick: the 2014 Florida Gators. Billy Donovan’s team went 18-0 in the SEC and 36-3 overall before losing to eventual National Champions Connecticut in the Final Four. That group featured two players to make their way to the league as undrafted free agents: Michael Frazier and Dorian Finney-Smith. They started three seniors with them: Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Patric Young.
That balanced Gators team was dominant on defense (10th in D-Rating that year) and had several future pros. But they may be the closest comparison to this year’s Friars group in that none were really on first-round radars.
What do we make of this? Is there a future pro or two hiding in plain sight with the Friars? Is Ed Cooley just maximizing a group that he perfectly assembled? Or is there a future pro in here to grind their way forward over the next couple of years that we can’t foresee right now?
An Upperclass-Laden Squad
Cooley’s group is making the jump due to experience and continually getting better. The Friars top-seven is all upperclassmen, six of whom are seniors. They have a balanced scoring attack — five players average between 9.5 and 14 points per game. They defend without fouling but don’t have a dominant defense (in fact, they’re outside the top-100 in defensive rating.)
You’d think that an offense is supremely overpowering to make up for that, right? Not necessarily. While the Friars are better on offense (86th in offensive rating) they aren’t an elite passing or shooting team. Their best team trait: they get to the foul line a ton. The Friars outscore their opponent by 5.3 PPG just at the foul line. With an average margin of victory of 6.3, free throws tend to stick out as the major factor in this Cinderella season.
Providence’s top-three scorers — big man Nate Watson, point guard Jared Bynum and Indiana transfer Aljani Durham — all shoot more than 3.5 free throws per game. Bynum and Durham, the backcourt duo, are always in attack mode and have a great balance between score and kick. Watson is successful on the block one-on-one. What affords him space? Shooting specialist AJ Reeves (38.3% on 5.8 attempts per game) and Noah Horchler (40.2% on 4.3 attempts).
Bynum has come off the bench for most of the year, with the Friars opting to go a bit bigger in their opening group. 6’6” senior forward Justin Minaya will add another strong body and defensive presence, and Durham can easily slide over to the point. Minaya can shoot it a little bit, but he provides great energy on the glass.
These six all know their roles and play them incredibly well. The offense meshes very well together and their discipline, hard work and poise are the collective intangibles that have lead to victory.
Who would be the pro prospect of the group?
If the trends of the last decade are indicative of anything, at least one of these Friars will play in the NBA eventually. Who stands out as the best prospect to focus on?
Aljani Durham - CG
The Indiana transfer is a slasher at heart. Durham has a clear flaw that holds him down from being an NBA-caliber scorer: he’s shooting a rough 20.9% from 3 this season. With the Hoosiers, Durham was better — 35.8% over his four-year career.
Durham is a good scorer, creates his own, thrives on contact, is great in the mid-range and is a better facilitator than given credit for. He never took more than nine shots per game in Bloomington, so it’s hard to know if he can truly thrive in a score-first role at the next level. The shooting regression while he’s 23-years-old certainly will keep him off draft boards, but there could be enough here to garner a camp invite.
Nate Watson - P
Watson is the team’s leading scorer, and the fifth-year senior has essentially been a starter for the last four years in the Big East. Let’s first focus on what he isn’t, which helps keep him off pro radars. Watson isn’t a stretch big, as he’s never made a 3-pointer in his career and is a career 62.6% free throw shooter. He’s also not a great or athletic rim protector — 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes is far too low, especially as a 6’10” post player.
So what does the 260-pound Watson do well? Score. While the Friars feature a balanced attack, Watson is their most consistent threat. Over 50% of his points on the season come from post-ups, another part of his game that won’t translate to pro success. There are other factors to like: soft touch, nice hands, decent mobility and competitiveness. For his size and lack of verticality, Watson would need to be far more dominant of a scorer to garner much NBA consideration.
Jared Bynum - PG
How many 5’10” guards have made it in the NBA over the last decade? Most who have a shot are elite self-creators in the Isaiah Thomas or Nate Robinson mold, great athletes who can get their shot off with step-backs or craftiness against elite size or competition.
Bynum is a good scorer and balances that well with creating for others. He also knocks down open jumpers — 51.5% on catch-and-shoot looks this year. But Bynum isn’t nearly elite enough as a pull-up scorer to get pro attention right now. He’s shooting a sturdy 38% on dribble jumpers, but doesn’t carry a high volume. We’re impressed by the fact he is 18-44 (40.9%) from deep, so perhaps a different system could see a bit more. Still, betting on guys his size to make it is pretty difficult, and his bag doesn’t feel as expansive as his competition at the position.
AJ Reeves - W
Another shooting specialist, former top-50 recruit Reeves has taken 507 of his career 806 shots from behind the 3-point line. For his career, he’s 35.5% from deep.
Those numbers aren’t quite enough to land on a big-time pro radar. He could catch in the G-League, but there isn’t much to him with the ball in his hands, so the numbers matter a hell of a lot more than with other prospects/ positions.
Noah Horchler - F
This may be our guy. An athletic 6’8”, Horchler is the team’s best rebounder, is shooting over 40% from 3 and can guard the 4 or the 5 for stretches. Most of his shots are catch-and-shoot looks, but he’s good at them (38.8%) and is efficient at the rim (56.3%). He doesn’t take shots in the mid-range or runners — he’s analytically-pleasing with his shot chart and the ideal role player. He tests out very well on Synergy’s defensive numbers, and opponents are only 6-22 against him in isolation.
Horchler is the backbone and pride of this Friars team, their lifeblood. He’s already 24 years old, so an NBA future is only possible if a team thinks there’s an impact he can make right now. The North Florida transfer was really good at that level before heading to Providence and redshirting. Since coming to the Friars, he’s shot over 40% from 3 in 58 career games.
This Friars group could be the aberration to the rule, winning a few more games out of luck and grit as opposed to talent. If that’s the case, there really isn’t a need for an overanalysis like this to figure out who of the Friars will be the next pro. In the event we’re wrong and all these trends hold up, get to know these guys before we’re behind the eight-ball and someone else reaps the rewards for doing their homework.