Re-Tiering the 2020 NBA Draft Class
Instead of doing a simple redraft with linear rankings, take a dive into the tiered approach to scouting and how the 2020 class has shifted in just three years
While I’m not a major fan of re-drafts, I’m going to dive in and try a few this Spring. It’s an important exercise for looking at the draft landscape and finding overarching lessons that can help me improve as a scout. Often these exercises are done solely on revisionist history (how players have turned out and what they’ve produced) instead of cross-examining their production with what was thought or known at the time.
In essence, anybody can go back and just rank players from the same draft class in terms of their NBA production. To me, the real skill comes from going back and figuring out what decisions I’d make differently knowing where the league has trended and what some players have shown early in their careers.
Almost three years ago, I broke out the debut of a tiered approach to setting up my final big board. It’s one I’ve stuck with since, as I find it helpful for parsing through impact and filtering through biases a bit. But I also wanted to look back to see how successful some of those tiers have been and what has come to fruition from those draft classes.
I start today with a look back at 2020, which was without a doubt my worst performance as an evaluator due to all the time I had to overthink and overanalyze during the pandemic.
I’ll be diving into the first seven tiers, which include all first-round grades. I will simultaneously critique my pre-draft rankings while placing the guys from the draft class into the tiers where it seems they belong. Now that this group has three seasons under their belt and will be extension-eligible in the coming months, small sample sizes can no longer be used as an excuse for understanding how to contextualize each player.
Tier 1: Franchise Player Alphas
Pre-Draft: None
Now: Anthony Edwards
Back in November of 2020, this is what I said about the top of the draft class and the two players who struck me as the high-upside guys:
“James Wiseman and Anthony Edwards, the top two players on our board, have downsides and real worries, albeit ones where their floor is still relatively productive.”
Edwards’ floor might have been overstated. There was plenty of overreaction to him during his time at Georgia with how poorly that season went. Questions about his character, leadership, and work ethic never sat right with me, and he was the wire-to-wire number one in that class.
While I can defend not putting Edwards into the top tier of superstar molds due to the lack of efficiency, he has bulldozed his way into that tier by becoming the best player in the 2020 draft class. His elite athletic tools are what he relies on for impact, and a really strong showing in the 2022 NBA Playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies has me excited for his future.
Tier 2: Alpha Upside with High-End Trajectory
Pre-Draft: Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman
Now: Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball
This was the tier where the top two players in the class came down for me. Edwards and James Wiseman stood out as the highest-upside players in 2020. Wiseman was raw at the time, but I talked a lot about his five-tool approach as a big and how those are the right big guys to take a swing on.
We know that injuries played a role in derailing Wiseman’s career a bit, though he does seem to be somewhat productive in Detroit. It’s fair to say, though, that he does not seem likely to fulfill this tier of player.
Instead, two guys do: Tyrese Haliburton with the Indiana Pacers and LaMelo Ball with the Charlotte Hornets. Both were outside of my top-15 back in 2020, and it’s safe to say that was a mistake.
With LaMelo, who has already made an All-Star team, most of the reason he was lower on my board (18th) was due to the questions around his character and leadership skills. In essence, he was one of the best passers and talents in the draft but not the guy I would want to tether my franchise to. I still see elements of that, though what he’s produced when healthy and how he’s improved his shot vaults him clearly into this tier.
Haliburton, on the other hand, was an outright miss (20th). I saw issues creating space and scoring off the bounce, the funky mechanics to the shot, and a lack of rim pressure at Iowa State. Those forced me to wonder how he’d score, but he’s figured out how to improve in those areas and remained a consistent 3-point shooter. Combine those with his high-IQ style and he’s an All-Star through only three NBA seasons.
The lesson to take away from them both: big guards with elite feel/ IQ are guys you don’t bet against. Perhaps I wouldn’t have put them into my top-five back in 2020 if I could do it over again, but having them in the later part of the first round was a clear misfire.
Tier 3: Fringe All-Stars At Peak/ Good 3rd Options
Pre-Draft:
Now: Devin Vassell, Desmond Bane
If you thought my miscues on Tier 2’s absences were bad, my inexperience as a scout really showed here. I jammed far too many players into this tier who, quite frankly, didn’t have the offensive firepower or consistency to really become reliable starters, let alone All-Stars. There’s one hit in this tier in Devin Vassell, who I was most confident in becoming a future third option and high-end role player. Realistically, all of these players should’ve been in a Tier 4 or Tier 5 ranking at the time.
Tier 3 shows how much progress I’ve made as an evaluator, to a certain extent. I’m much better about leaving these tiers empty and understanding how to contextualize what I’m seeing from a prospect.
If I had those skills at the time, I never would have put Jalen Smith, Tyrell Terry, or RJ Hampton in this tier. Smith projected as a toolsy inside-outside big man, but that’s not a star-caliber player, even if he’s starter-worthy. Terry’s shooting and feel struck me, but his size and frame raised the margin for error. Hampton was just really raw, and while I expected increased production if he ever got to play with the ball in his hands again, the decision-making and feel aspects (which I undervalued with Ball and Haliburton) would’ve prevented him from realizing that role, as it has in reality.
The inclusions of Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes, and Kira Lewis here are much more defensible. Hayes had good positional size and showed some real scoring chops with Ulm pre-draft. I still remember being very tantalized by his film, though I should’ve been much more cautious with his jumper — there were signs that it was going to be a struggle for him.
Lewis has been hampered by injuries and Avdija is a defensive-minded player, not enough of an assertive offensive presence. While I loved Avdija’s feel, it’s hard to put him into this tier since he simply doesn’t look at the bucket.
While I still have Vassell in this tier, only one player has really earned the designation of joining him as a potential third option: Desmond Bane of the Memphis Grizzlies. Bane is a scouting marvel for the organization, unearthing a four-year college player who could keep getting better and become a terrific scorer in the league. Bane’s competitiveness and shooting stroke have made him wildly impactful for the Grizzlies and their best perimeter player next to Ja Morant.
Through three tiers, we have re-ranked only five players. It was seen as a fairly weak draft class at the time, and so far, it’s proven to be really weak in terms of top-end talent. As we move down into the role player tiers, the class will find its way and produce a little more depth.
Tier 4: The Safest, High-Value Role Players/ Connective Starters
Pre-Draft: Saddiq Bey, Theo Maledon, Onyeka Okongwu, Isaiah Joe
Now: Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey
I think the evolution of my tiers has me holding players who I’d put into this category to a higher standard. That’s not to say that these four players I originally ranked aren’t good pieces or didn’t deserve to be in the tier. More than that, I just feel like many of the tools these guys demonstrated pre-draft and the write-ups I had on them come off more like Tier 6 role players than anything.
Bey and Okongwu remain in this tier as current teammates for the Atlanta Hawks. Neither have turned into connective starters for Atlanta, a middling team in the league. But Bey, who started in Detroit and is producing at a 47/40/86 pace with the Hawks post-trade, is a very good 3-and-D type of option whose basketball IQ will pop more in Quin Snyder’s system than it did elsewhere. Okongwu, really efficient on both ends while playing behind Clint Capela, has been exactly as advertised and is someone I’m choosing to keep in this tier. I’m not sure if he’s simply blocked for minutes and a larger impact, but he still strikes me as this type of player.
The new additions to this tier are Kentucky guards. First is Tyrese Maxey, who has become one of the deadeye guards in this league. He shot under 30% from 3 at Kentucky, and the low release on his shot gave me great pause. He’s more of a scorer who slides between the starting rotation and the bench. There’s no denying a guy who is averaging 20 points per game belongs in one of these top tiers. Unfortunately, Maxey has struggled on defense and with physicality in the league, which prevents me from really vaulting him into fringe All-Star status.
The other one was a guy I loved pre-draft and simply didn’t rank appropriately as I tried to remain overly cautious: Immanuel Quickley. Here’s what I said about him at the time:
Quickley can be a long, crafty combo who does things with the ball in his hands. The lack of evidence there, and the poor finishing at Kentucky can be excused by the lack of spacing around him in the few times he was utilized that way. To me, Quickley could rise into become a solid 6th man scorer and impart his 6'9" wingspan to guard 1 thru 3.
He’s become a really good, versatile piece for the Knicks and proven he can be a starter on a playoff team. He can go out there and get his own, but he is a connective starter through and through. He’s delivered Tier 4 output.
Don’t bet against Kentucky guards…
Tier 5: High-Upside Lottery Swings
Pre-Draft: Obi Toppin, Cole Anthony, Isaac Okoro, Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball, Precious Achiuwa, Tyrese Haliburton
Now: Jaden McDaniels, Patrick Williams, James Wiseman, Killian Hayes, Deni Avdija, Kira Lewis, Cole Anthony, Precious Achiuwa
If there’s one thing I did get right about this draft, it’s that there would be a lot of boom-or-buys guys. I’m puzzled as to why Isaac Okoro fit into a group of ‘high-upside’ players on my list, though suspect it’s because he had the potential to be a high-end defensive-stopper if the offense came along.
It’s difficult to rank ‘high-upside’ players in retrospect. I would surmise the safest way to do that is to look at the players with the clear highest ceiling who, if I could go back in time and had I lottery pick, I would justify taking over some of the more certain players on the board. With only nine players on the first four tiers through this exercise, I’m going to have to put some guys into this high-upside swing.
Jaden McDaniels is the big riser who comes into this tier. His defensive output has given him a real case to be a Tier 4 guy, since he is somewhat indispensable for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But there was so much risk involved in his draft profile at the time (a big reason he was outside the top 40 for me) that it is hard to vault him higher in a re-draft or even a re-tiering. Too much of what we do in re-drafts includes revisionist history. The risk with McDaniels was really high.
If I could do it again, I wouldn’t be so harsh on Patrick Williams (outside the top-25). While he’s still an enigma three years into his career, my low grade on him was due to major questions about the shooting mechanics and a pushback on how high other draft boards valued him. With his tools and the defensive versatility his frame affords, I should’ve been wiser about taking a gamble on him within this Tier 5 originally.
This tier does feel like the right place for the aforementioned guys like Avdija, Hayes, and Lewis. The knee issues for Kira will make him one of the bigger ‘what if’ players to come through my time scouting. I still believe he would’ve been an impactful player if healthy, but the catering needed to make that happen as a smaller guard should’ve put him lower and into this tier.
Avdija and Hayes were high-upside role players or starters who did have some clear flaws. They should’ve (and kind of ended up being) late-end lotto picks. Of course, James Wiseman belongs in this tier perfectly — he’s a high-risk, high-reward player who nobody has really figured out after three years.
Two guys I did nail correctly in this tier were Cole Anthony and Precious Achiuwa. Anthony always struck me as a good scoring guard in the NBA. Those guys are always a little boom or bust, because the line between ‘career backup scorer’ and ‘go overseas, young man’ is pretty thin. Anthony seems to be trending toward the right side of that line and has been slightly underappreciated in Orlando.
Achiuwa, however, is still a mixed bag. He has all the skills in the world and can inject a dose of madness into the Toronto Raptors lineup. He’s also going to cause some frustrating moments with his inconsistent play and head-scratching decisions. On talent alone, he’s worth keeping in this range.
Tier 6: Role Players w/First-Round Grades
Pre-Draft: Josh Green, Tre Jones, Nico Mannion, Killian Tillie, Reggie Perry, Malachi Flynn, Aaron Nesmith, Immanuel Quickley, Xavier Tillman
Now: Isaiah Stewart, Josh Green, Isaac Okoro, Isaiah Joe, Naji Marshall, Tre Jones
As we get to the final two tiers here with first-round grades, it’s worth noting a big overall shift in my philosophy: gatekeeping this tier a lot more. A first-round grade doesn’t mean throwing them into the top-30 or even understanding how they could return first-round value. To me, a first-round grade is much more about seeing more pathways for success than failure, especially in the role player category in Tier 6.
You’ll notice that most of these guys are fifth starters, rotation-caliber shooting specialists, or defensive-minded mainstays on rosters. They’re all wings or big wings, with the exception of Jones, who is likely to never be a starting-caliber point guard on a good team due to his size.
The players I undervalued in comparison to consensus (Stewart and Okoro) are solid rotation pieces but still have their weaknesses to work through. I’m most confident in Stewart of anyone on this list to figure out how to turn into a real starting-caliber, reliable player. Josh Green isn’t far behind, though.
Marshall was a collective miss, an undrafted big wing who has fit in well in New Orleans. There’s a guy or two like that in every class who far outperforms what nearly everyone anticipated, and Marshall has been the guy in 2020.
Tier 7: High-Upside Guys w/ First-Round Grades
Pre-Draft: Mason Jones, Tyler Bey, Yam Madar, Desmond Bane, Leandro Bolmaro, Malik Fitts, Saben Lee, Zeke Nnaji, Aleksej Pokusevski, Cassius Stanley, Patrick Williams, Isaiah Stewart
Now: Jalen Smith, Obi Toppin, RJ Hampton, KJ Martin, Tyrell Terry, Aleksej Pokusevski
Okay so right off the bat, there’s no way there should be 41 players receiving a first-round grade in a weak draft class. My bad, y’all.
As I’ve learned to be more selective and limit first-round grades to those who should and not could deliver first-round returns, those rankings have shrunk. And a look back at the 2020 class is proof of that… the class is insanely weak on proven first-round talent.
Again, high-upside tiers are hard to re-rank in retrospect. What this really turns into is a listing of guys who I was once high on that I still would defend that ranking of today. Jalen Smith’s unique tools as a big man, Obi Toppin’s athleticism and proven scoring, RJ Hampton’s athleticism for a guard, KJ Martin’s toughness and defensive versatility, Tyrell Terry’s shooting touch… they all stood out.
Of course, we have to throw Poku in this tier as well. He’s far too intriguing of a piece to explore to not be handed out one of these high-upside grades. I still will defend not giving him a top-30 grade, but he’s shown enough over the past three years to still be an intriguing long-term guy.
All in all, this class was a mess, hasn’t produced many very good players, and is still largely unpredictable. Moreover, my board and tier rankings were poor. I didn’t gatekeep first-round grades enough, lost sight of how hard it is to be a top-tier player, and slid guys up my board in hoping for the upside. I learned to re-value high-feel players, positional size, and improve on some of the mistakes I made as a younger scout.