Ron Burgundy's Guide to the NBA Draft Withdrawal Deadline
Ron Burgundy's Guide to the NBA Draft Withdrawal Deadline
Plus, a small primer of top returners in the 2024 draft class
Ladies and gentlemen, can I please have your attention?
I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. I need all of you, to stop what you're doing and listen.
…no, there’s nothing horrifying going on here. But the 2023 NBA Draft early entrant withdrawal deadline came and went this week, meaning domestic players are locked into their spots in the draft (there’s a small asterisk here, though, as some NBL teams are trying to poach players away still).
To analyze the decisions made by these prospects, I figured it would be time to bring some levity to the table. The pre-draft process can be intense at times, so a laugh every now and then isn’t the worst thing.
Today, I’m channeling my inner Champ Kind and am “all about having fun.” Instead of giving feedback on every player and their decision in a dense post or listed format, I’m going to let a few Ron Burgundy quotes from the American classic Anchorman summarize how this withdrawal deadline came and went.
On the whole, I will say this: I think the pendulum has really shifted thanks to the proliferation of NIL money available to college athletes. So many players returned to college, and now the second-round draft pool looks particularly thin when compared to years past.
Who made the right call to return to college? Who should have stayed in but went back to school? Who stayed in but could have used an extra year?
Stay with us here, folks. It’ll be a whammy!
The Bear Pit Leapers
Sometimes you jump into the bear pit without always knowing what’s gonna happen when you get there. A few players seemed to go back to school when, in all likelihood, their pathway to minutes has changed or their roles on the teams haven’t when they need to.
I can hear many of them channeling their inner Burgundy at this moment.
Going back to school buys time, but time is only valuable if coupled with the right development spot and (perhaps most importantly) the opportunity to showcase those improvements on-court.
Due to circumstances of where they’re returning to, there were a few guys from the return deadline that I thought either made the wrong decision or have found themselves in a risky spot moving forward.
Adem Bona - P, UCLA
Bona’s pre-draft process was inhibited by injuries, which started back during the season. It’s hard to be a mobile big man and want to show your value to teams without being able to work out for them. Obviously, Bona didn’t receive the requisite promises to go in the first round while testing the waters, otherwise he would have stayed.
Things are complicated back at UCLA, where a logjam of bigs could be developing. Famed Spanish big man Aday Mara is reportedly looking for a buyout of his club contract in Europe to come over to the Bruins. That could create a tight squeeze for minutes for Bona. Two bigs can play together in college in the right system. But it certainly won’t be the optimal usage of Adem’s tools and traits for NBA exposure. This could leave him stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Cliff Omoruyi - P, Rutgers and DaRon Holmes - P, Dayton
With Bona, Zach Edey, Johni Broome, and Ryan Kalkbrenner withdrawing, there seemed to be plenty of space for big men to establish themselves in the second round. I was really surprised to see Holmes and Omoruyi opt to head back to college as a result. Both established themselves as big, toolsy defenders who I would’ve pounced upon in the second round.
The difficult part is knowing that they’re both going back to the schools they came from, both of which are losing significant amounts of talent and aren’t bastions of lucrative NIL deals. To each their own, and I generally applaud guys for doing what they want to do and going where they want to go. From a pro prospect outlook, these decisions caught me by surprise a bit.
Judah Mintz - PG, Syracuse
The pathway forward for smaller guards isn’t easy in the modern NBA. Mintz is a very skinny 6’3” guard and needs to physically mature. Undersized guys can survive in the league, but not without a jump shot. Mintz, who is both small and an inconsistent shooter from deep, likely wasn’t getting a guaranteed deal or a first-round contract.
But he has so many points of intrigue to me. He’s a much better defender on-ball than he got to show at Syracuse in their 2-3 zone. Jim Boeheim is out and Adrian Autry is in, and there seems to be a new push toward playing man-to-man. This could turn into a really positive move for Mintz if the opportunity to show new traits on defense exists.
The Minature Buddhas
Some players did make a wise decision to return to school. For those, they’ve channeled their inner Baxter the Dog.
Going back to school is the right call for these guys only if they go and learn a new hold. Remember, the return to school isn’t just about stacking up next to other prospects in that draft class, it’s about finding an easily-identifiable area to improve and then sticking to that plan.
For these players, here’s a rationale for why going back was the right move and what they’ll need to be able to show differently next year.
Matthew Murrell - W, Ole Miss and Tyrin Lawrence - CG, Vanderbilt
Two guys who have impressed me with their natural tools, both Murrell and Lawrence are returning to the SEC. For Lawrence, I think Jerry Stackhouse is one of the more underrated coaches in the game and puts his best players in unbelievable positions to succeed. Lawrence could really benefit from a year running the show there and could experience a boost in his draft stock in tangible ways as a result.
Murrell is now playing for a defensive-minded coach in Chris Beard for a program that has some positive momentum to it. Exposure to the mainstream still seems to be why Murrell isn’t a household name. He’s a bouncy athlete, a good shooter, and has some guard skills to bring to the table. If the Rebels have a strong season, he could be one guy we talk about a lot more as a fringe top-40 name.
Arthur Kaluma - F, Creighton
Kaluma needs more in his scoring arsenal. More shooting, a move that isn’t just a pump-and-go drive to his right, more polish on his handle. He’s a tremendous defender but is really raw on offense.
This was the right decision by Kaluma, who is reportedly exploring options on the transfer market. Wherever he goes (even if it’s a return to Creighton), an individual development plan for his offensive traits is what’s most important for his long-term career.
The Milk-Chuggers
Some people couldn’t help themselves and stay in the draft. They were just feeling the heat of the moment. For them, they just saw the opportunity to drink the Kool-Aid — or, in Burgundy’s case, the milk.
Staying in the draft isn’t necessarily a bad choice when so many players chose to withdraw and head back to school. NIL money and the proliferation of two-way contracts given to second round picks have driven several guys back to college. For those looking to be opportunistic and capitalize on the open spots in the mid-to-late second round, it’s really difficult to call this a “bad” choice.
However, there are a few guys who I really think could have benefitted from going back to school. The next few weeks will bear out whether they made the right call, but based on the intel or evaluations I’ve done, I’m a little skeptical.
Chris Livingston - Wing
Livingston has been hyped up by Klutch Sports and several online for having positive momentum that led to his decision to stay in the draft. While I was not in Chicago at the combine, that sentiment wasn’t echoed by many of my sources or colleagues I’ve talked to. Livingston has a lot of the raw tools to make it work in the NBA as a big wing with a theoretical shooting stroke.
For me, the Livingston thing isn’t as much about getting drafted as it is getting placed into a position to succeed. The pathway forward for young second-round picks who get jettisoned to the G-League is a pretty tough move. Livingston needs a lot of work, and by the time he figures out how to maximize his tools, the team that drafted him likely won’t be the ones reaping the benefits. I would’ve opted for a second year in school.
Jordan Walsh - Athlete
Walsh has a very good chance to hear his name get called in the top 40 on draft night, as he stands to be the big winner from the mass exodus that occurred on Wednesday. He showed moments of comfort taking triples, impressive defensive impact, and enough intangibles to keep himself seen in a positive light despite the horrid lack of a jump shot.
Next week, I’m doing more of an in-depth breakdown on Walsh and other non-shooting wings — it’s a position group that gives me trouble personally and I believe doesn’t help teams win at the highest level. If it were me, I’d have counseled Walsh to go back to school, work on the jumper there, and know that an improved jumper will likely get him a lot of guaranteed money next year. It’s the missing piece, and he could be such an impactful defender that an extra season of failed shooting development wouldn’t see him drop lower than the range he’s already in.
A Quick Top 10 of Returners
While the 2024 draft class may be somewhat weak at the top, I do believe there will be a significant amount of depth to it. NIL money is starting to make the pool of upperclassmen more robust, and for those who finally make the decision to turn pro a little later than they would have just 36 months ago, getting into the first round may no longer be out of the question.
That said, I don’t think the pool of returners will produce several top-ten picks in the way it did back in 2022 with Keegan Murray, Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, and Johnny Davis. Instead, this is a deep group where we could see tons of returners make a huge impact in the first round.
10. Trey Alexander, Creighton - Alexander has a lot of the tools to become an effective two-way guard. I like his on-ball defense a lot and see the shooting versatility and upside. He needs to take the reigns of the Creighton offense next year and if he does, the first round is in sight.