Should Smaller Guards Stay in School?
The data suggests that, at least right now, experience is at a premium when natural size is absent
Over the weekend, I wrote about how the OKC Thunder waived TyTy Washington and how it’s indicative of the lack of time given to these undersized guards to keep developing with the ball in their hands.
A day later, I went on The Game Theory Podcast with Sam Vecenie and talked about the state of guards 6’4” or under, who are deemed ‘undersized’ by today’s standards. My theory was to suggest most of them become multi-year college players: to stay in college, get their reps in there, prove they can run a team, and then be able to provide value to an NBA team early in their career. Those reps are ones they cannot get back and desperately need to keep running a team.
What I didn’t realize at the time was that there could be some data to back up that idea. In looking at the 2022-23 NBA season, there was the same amount of players 6’4” or shorter who spent 3+ seasons of college as there were one-and-dones.
Guards 6’4” or smaller with 10+ starts or 1000 minutes last year who were one-and-dones: 19
Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bradley Beal, Darius Garland, De’Aaron Fox, Jrue Holiday, Tyrese Maxey, Mike Conley, Marcus Smart, Jalen Suggs, Collin Sexton, Tyus Jones, Eric Gordon, Cole Anthony, Austin Rivers, Malik Monk, Cory Joseph, Dennis Smith Jr.
Guards 6’4” or smaller with 10+ starts or 1000 minutes last year who spent 3+ years in college: 19
Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jalen Brunson, Fred VanVleet, Derrick White, Victor Oladipo, Monte Morris, Norman Powell, Donte DiVincenzo, Gabe Vincent, Jevon Carter, Davion Mitchell, Seth Curry, Reggie Jackson, TJ McConnell, Jose Alvarado, Jordan Goodwin, Devonte’ Graham
Perhaps this means something in terms of prospect evaluation, but it does make it much riskier to spend a first-round pick on a young and undersized guard.