Sophomore Surge Candidate: Arthur Kaluma
After a great finish to the season, Kaluma is a trendy pick for a breakout sophomore year
Over the next several weeks of summer, we will be profiling some rising sophomores who we believe have extreme breakout candidacy and can shoot up NBA draft boards. After the effects of COVID challenged many from the high school class of 2020, we saw a large uptick in sophomores making giant strides in 2021-22. That included eventual top-ten picks Jaden Ivey, Jonathan Davis, Keegan Murray and Bennedict Mathurin.
Ivey, Murray and Mathurin were high on preseason radars, considered widely to be first-round picks at the very least. There were others, such as Jordan Hall, Jabari Walker and Mark Williams that were fringe first-round candidates, as well as some obscure late-bloomers like Tari Eason and Davis. We profiled the best sophomores and their breakouts in early January, only to see six of them go in the first round and the other two ink NBA contracts during Summer League.
Could we be in for much of the same next year? If the prognosticators give any indication, the incoming freshman class is one of the most loaded in recent memory, making it a challenge for sophomores to rise en masse to the lottery like they did in 2022. However, the door should be open for several sophomores to make a leap from fringe draft prospect to legitimate first-round threat.
What do we look for in trying to project breakout candidates? We answered that question on a recent episode of The Box and One podcast: correctable areas of improvement that go with impressive flashes, and a change in opportunity/ role growth on their current roster.
Arthur Kaluma of Creighton had some very impressive flashes last season for the Blue Jays and started on an NCAA Tournament team as a true freshman. He’s one of the trendiest breakout candidates of this entire cycle, not just because of the freshman campaign but the work he did this summer for the Ugandan National Team during their World Cup qualifying games. Kaluma looks improved in some key areas and confident enough to slide into a primary role.
That confidence already started to build towards the tail end of his freshman year. Kaluma was really sharp during the final ten games of his season, averaging 13.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists while playing 30 minutes a game. That play carried over to the FIBA African Basketball Qualifiers; in two games for Uganda, he averaged 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3 assists.
For Kaluma, there is an obvious area to improve: 3-point shooting. According to Synergy sports, on spot-up catch-and-shoot jumpers last year, Kaluma went 8-50 (16%), an abysmally low mark. On all other jumpers in the half-court, he was 18-51 (35.3%). That’s a unique combination of metrics, leading us to believe this is one of those rare cases where the Synergy numbers aren’t quite as damning as they appear. He’s still a poor shooter and needs to make some mechanical tweaks, but the urgency level isn’t anywhere near close to what that 16% mark might indicate.
Small mechanical tweaks will help Kaluma transition to the NBA, where he figures to be more of a transition/ mismatch creator than a true primary option. While he’s shot up preseason big boards, we’re still keeping him in the late first/ early second discussion for now. The defense is really attractive and we love his physical driving and footwork combinations. But shooting is almost a necessity for a guy like him, he isn’t an elite athlete and may not gain as much separation when playing the 4 against guys who are closer to his physical build.
There are a few opponents we want to specifically watch to see how he fares based on the matchups. Texas Tech (lots of size), Arkansas (length and strength abound), Texas (Dylan Disu) and the talented field of the Maui Invitational are all early-season tests that will show how legit Kaluma can be. In addition, conference foes Villanova (Cam Whitmore) and Connecticut (Andre Jackson) have athletes that he needs to match up with. We could be propelling him closer to lottery territory by Christmas if he proves what we’ve seen this summer is legit against the best teams college basketball has to offer.