Sophomore Surge Candidate: UConn's Jordan Hawkins
The 6'5" combo guard can defend multiple spots and shoot the ball, plus is an above-average athlete
Over the next several weeks of summer, we will be profiling some rising sophomores who we believe have extreme breakout candidacy and can shoot up NBA draft boards. After the effects of COVID challenged many from the high school class of 2020, we saw a large uptick in sophomores making giant strides in 2021-22. That included eventual top-ten picks Jaden Ivey, Jonathan Davis, Keegan Murray and Bennedict Mathurin.
Ivey, Murray and Mathurin were high on preseason radars, considered widely to be first-round picks at the very least. There were others, such as Jordan Hall, Jabari Walker and Mark Williams that were fringe first-round candidates, as well as some obscure late-bloomers like Tari Eason and Davis. We profiled the best sophomores and their breakouts in early January, only to see six of them go in the first round and the other two ink NBA contracts during Summer League.
Could we be in for much of the same next year? If the prognosticators give any indication, the incoming freshman class is one of the most loaded in recent memory, making it a challenge for sophomores to rise en masse to the lottery like they did in 2022. However, the door should be open for several sophomores to make a leap from fringe draft prospect to legitimate first-round threat.
What do we look for in trying to project breakout candidates? We answered that question on a recent episode of The Box and One podcast: correctable areas of improvement that go with impressive flashes, and a change in opportunity/ role growth on their current roster.
No prospect could make a bigger leap in both areas than Connecticut guard Jordan Hawkins. The former DeMatha hooper had some really high-caliber flashes as a freshman with the Huskies, even though the entire body of work doesn’t stand out as elite. He only shot 33.3% from deep, struggled finishing at the rim, lacks great defensive statistics or on-off analytics, and played a small role.
We think Hawkins is ready to take the next step. The flashes of shooting and creation off the bounce were intriguing, and the on-ball defense and athleticism pops much more on film. He’s athletic, big and has a smooth stroke, checking a lot of boxes for an off-ball guard. Most importantly, there are minutes freed up in Connecticut’s backcourt after RJ Cole left for the NBA. Hawkins, along with East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton, figure to eat up those minutes.
After showing some promising flashes early in the year, Hawkins started to fade more down the stretch. February was tough to Hawkins, as he shot a mere 31.8% from the field and a dismal 28.6% from inside the arc. Those numbers won’t get him drafted — especially considering the raw athletic traits he possesses at 6’5”.
Hawkins got a concussion early in their March 2nd matchup with Creighton and never was able to make a return to action his freshman season. But the Huskies were 7-0 when he scored double figures and 5-1 when he played 20 minutes or more. Hawkins is one of those guys who needs improvement to some legitimately concerning areas (finishing, footwork, consistency) and if they come, he’ll be a breakout star.
What are we looking for in terms of improvement areas? Shooting consistency will be a big one. We believe his ideal role is in embracing being a perimeter defensive stopper, meaning spot-up shooting and letting others be primary creators on offense is vital. He’s shown a solid ability to spot up in the corners and even hit shots on the move. Consistency is key to doing both at an NBA level.
Next is finishing improvements. We believe that his athleticism will win out, but there is something concerning about a guy who shrinks himself as a finisher and only jumps off two feet. More strength and increased touch at the rim will really help him.
Finally, a positive assist to turnover ratio goes a long way in reinforcing his role. We don’t expect Hawkins to be a primary option on an NBA team, or even this year at UConn. However, he’ll likely need to show he can be a secondary option that creates out of ball screens and handoffs on the second side, attacks closeouts without just settling for pull-up jumpers, and keeps making dump downs available for bigs like Adama Sanogo. We saw flashes of intriguing playmaking in the lane from Hawkins as a freshman; flashes need to turn into nightly passing.
We’ve seen the potential in Hawkins for a long time. UConn coach Dan Hurley does a great job recruiting the DMV area, and Hawkins was one of the more underrated prospects coming out of high school. Our belief in Hawkins to become a riser on draft boards is built on the potential we’ve seen from him. If gaining notoriety in the draft community is about being the first to pluck a prospect out of obscurity to see a major ascent, then Hawkins is the dark horse we’re attaching our cart to.