Terquavion Smith, Marcus Sasser, & Mike Miles Jr.: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Reports
A look back at my old scouting videos to see what their NBA trajectory looks like and whether these smaller guards are worth a valuable draft selection
Now that we’re in the late part of the draft cycle, I’m going to start to transition to shorter scouting report videos. Every player in this draft who is in my top 40 already has a video done in full length. With these prospects who I have outside of my top 40 (and therefore project more as G-League guys, even if they get drafted), I’ll do shorter videos — and hopefully more of them!
To keep up with the rest of the prospects (and to try to not clutter your inbox with multiple posts a day), I’m going to be sending out some combo platters: two prospects at the same time with less depth but some to-the-point analysis on each. The idea is to group these prospects together based on some overlap or comparison point.
This afternoon’s edition will be a little different than normal — I’m going to actually look at three video scouting reports I made over a year ago. Last year, three of my favorite guard prospects entered the draft and then withdrew ahead of the deadline: NC State scorer Terquavion Smith, Houston Cougars leader Marcus Sasser, and TCU’s jitterbug Mike Miles Jr.
Their games have undoubtedly grown or changed since then. Today will feature a dive into the old video, the areas that have either changed (for better or for worse) or stayed the same (also for better or for worse), and what their 2023 NBA Draft outlook appears to be.
A year ago, I had a first-round grade on Terquavion Smith and was pretty close to that level with both Miles and Sasser. Now, for varying reasons, none of them have a first-round grade on my final big board, due as much to the changing nature of the current NBA (which doesn’t value players under 6’5”) as to a regression from the prospects themselves.
Terquavion Smith - CG, NC State
A year ago, I compared Terquavion Smith in the 2022 NBA Draft to Josh Primo back in 2021:
The similarities between Smith and Primo are real. They’re both fairly young for their class, flew a tad under the radar their freshman seasons, and combine that on-ball and off-ball potential. It’s an important combo that allows for a solid floor (off-ball guards who can shoot it can play next to a primary creator) with a really high upside due to the self-creation.
That full-length scouting report on Terquavion hit on so many of the jitterbug performances that he put forth and the sky-high confidence his shooting would tap into. For a freshman, it is easy to overlook shooting under 40% from the field when there is real potential to improve at the basket, the playmaking balance can come in the future, and with time he can reign in some of the shot selection.
A year ago, I listed several areas for Smith to get better at — albeit thinking it would come in the G-League and not NC State, but here we are. The checklist, taken from the article above, was actually pretty long and should have been a warning sign that Smith is a little too volatile to be worth a first-round selection.
Terquavion is far away from being able to run an offense. His playmaking out of ball screens is nowhere near NBA caliber. He has a score-first mentality with poor passing and decision-making mechanics…What he lacks at the moment — physical strength, playmaking feel, point of attack defense — can all be developed…. Defensively, he can be targeted in the post and mismatched; his length is solid, but he cedes ground too easily. Smith doesn’t like to be physical, either.
So how did Terquavion do at improving in many of those areas this year? Was the overall evaluation from last Spring accurate?
Well, Smith resolved some issues and created a few new ones. The scoring flashes were still the scoring flashes: really sexy, incredibly tantalizing, and fairly reliant on giving him a long leash to create. He was once again consistent as a catch-and-shoot player (39% on the season), which is a great floor-raiser and proves he can play with others. But Smith was, overall, beneath 40% from the field for the second consecutive season. That level of inefficiency as a scorer is staggering given the role he’d require at the next level. His dribble pull-up numbers tanked a bit, and the long leash he needs to succeed is a little less justifiable as a result.
Still, there were some notable improvement areas. Smith was much more efficient as a finisher (51.6% at the rim in the half-court, a drastic improvement over the 33.9% mark he hit as a freshman) and added a little bit of functional strength to his portfolio. His playmaking for others took a major leap, doubling his assist total to 4.1 per game. Smith did so without raising his turnover rate, either.
I wouldn’t say that Smith made any defensive improvements, though. NC State was much better on that end as a whole (they weren’t down a rim protector all season due to injury like they were when Terquavion was a freshman), but Smith bears little responsibility for making it so.
We now have two years of data on Terq to call him a supremely fun player, but ultimately an inefficient one. He showed his takeover prowess late in the season with some incredibly impactful performances: 30 points in a win over Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament, 32 points against Creighton in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and a 32-point outburst against Florida State earlier in the regular season. Still, the consistency wasn’t there. He finished with 5 points on 2-11 shooting despite playing all 40 minutes against Georgia Tech. He was shut down by Duke in the regular season finale (8 points, including going 0-4 inside the arc), and shot a putrid 32.8% from the field in their losses on the season.
Smith’s scoring talent is probably worthy of a late second-round pick, and if a team feels comfortable about continuing to develop his defensive impact, an early second-rounder seems justifiable. It just seems like for every high-octane performance (and one that comes with him chucking up field goal attempts), there’s a poor one to follow. The margin for error for smaller guards — especially scoring-minded ones — is incredibly thin, so I have a tough time justifying a top-40 selection on Terquavion. He currently sits at #49 on my personal big board.
Marcus Sasser - PG, Houston
There isn’t a direct way to measure winning prospects outside of looking at the success of the teams that they have been on. Over the last three years, when Marcus Sasser has been in the lineup for the Houston Cougars, they have gone 67-9.
If that’s not a ringing endorsement for a point guard who can help your team win games, I’m not sure what is. Sasser is a dynamic two-way player with elite defensive intangibles, unlimited confidence on offense, and a competitive spirit that prevents him from taking a play off.