The Significance of Winning a Generational Lottery

The winner of tonight doesn't just get the #1 overall pick. With Victor Wembanyama, they get an instant boost in brand value and popularity

Watch Victor Wembanyama play once and you’ll be mesmerized.

What him continuously and you’ll be in awe of just how often he makes game-changing plays.

The crowned jewel of this 2023 draft class is a player whose size, mobility, skill, and defensive impact haven’t been crammed into the same prospect ever before. He’s 7’4” with a monstrous 8’0” wingspan, yet fluid in the open floor like a gazelle. He handles the ball with grace, shoots it from deep and in the mid-range, dunks anything near the hoop, and is coordinated at every stop.

On defense, Wembanyama might even be more impactful. He uses his length to lock down the paint and mobility to deter shots away from the lane. He erases layups that nobody else can get to and covers up the mistakes of any of his teammates.

Such a can’t-miss player is surely going to change the trajectory of an NBA franchise lucky enough to draft him. As a result, this year’s draft lottery is one of the most consequential of the 21st century.

But the impact of Wembanyama — and of landing the top pick — goes far beyond the impact on the court that Victor projects to have. The NBA is a business, one where teams individually try to turn a profit and the league as a whole has a vested interest in everyone’s growth. A once-in-a-generation superstar prospect can do wonders from a branding, marketing, and popularity standpoint.

Some brands are bigger than the quality of the roster that’s currently assembled — and they’ve gotten there through success or prior star power. The Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and maybe the Chicago Bulls are at that level of status in the NBA. They’ll receive media attention and acclaim across the globe for the successes they have already amassed or the markets they play in. But those are just four of the 30 teams competing in the league. For everyone else, brand valuation and market cap fluctuates with the players on their team.

One player, if he’s the right player, can make a world of difference. This generation’s stars have been Stephen Curry and LeBron James, two ultra-marketable players who have been the faces of the league and tentpoles of franchise valuation growth. Wherever they go, brand values soar. LeBron has been wildly impactful, as Yeshiva University’s Alexander Wildes broke down a few years ago:

LeBron’s return as a ready-made star nearly doubled the net worth of the franchise due, mainly, to their visibility. Sure, ticket sales and prices increase locally. But the national reach goes far beyond. Jersey sales skyrocket, increasing recognizable aspects of the franchise in everyday life. National television exposure soars with a superstar. Ultimately, the hope of playoff success and the revenue the postseason develops are major factors in raising valuation.

The NBA certainly hopes Wembanyama can become the next version of that tentpole star. Recent failed attempts to put the marketing jetpack on the back of Zion Williamson have fallen flat, and no other young players are quite as recognizable to the common fan. The league has a vested interest in his rise to stardom: they’ve promoted the October G-League Ignite showcases, broadcasted his French games on their official platform so NBA fans get exposure to him, and built up numerous interviews and specials around following him.

Vic is being primed as the league’s next marketing stallion. Whoever gets to have their jersey on his chest is getting a marketing pipedream to come to life.

But Wembanyama’s appeal reaches far beyond the enticing American market, where revenue is so easily generated at the league’s doorstep. Wembanyama brings with him the country of France, one of the world’s blossoming basketball regions, to inject a financial surge into the franchise as well. While perhaps not on the same level, the closest comparison point is over 20 years ago when Yao Ming was drafted by the Houston Rockets.

While exact metrics to track Yao’s overwhelming popularity in China are somewhat difficult to track down, the 2017 sale of the franchise by then-owner Leslie Alexander was reportedly done above the perceived initial value thanks to the impact overseas. China has since been vital to the league’s growth, and a market hold in France could be similarly beneficial to the league as a whole.

The draft lottery has always been a source of great intrigue and excitement for the NBA. It’s an opportunity for them to simultaneously discourage tanking while generating buzz around the draft before it arrives.

This year’s event feels different. There’s so much riding on how the ping pong balls will bounce that extends far beyond basketball.