TyTy Washington: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
On Washington, the Kentucky Theory, and the combo guard conundrum
A word to the wise: Don’t worry about the volume.
Context is king, and TyTy Washington is going to be a prospect whose draft position is heavily dependent on context. His per-game, and even per-40 numbers, don’t pop in the way that another lottery prospect might: 12.5 points per game on 10.9 field goal attempts, only 3.9 assists per game and only a 22.5% usage rate. For a backcourt prospect rumored to be in lottery or top-ten discussions, the numbers don’t inspire confidence on their own.
Washington’s numbers are merely a byproduct of the talent he plays with at Kentucky and the boxes that head coach John Calipari puts himself into on offense by recruiting ball-dominant players who lack versatility. Those with versatility, like Washington, suffer a bit: they relinquish reps in ways that are best for them in order to make all the pieces fit together.
For a few years, we’ve held a working theory that Kentucky guards can do more than they’re allowed in a Calipari system. Coach Cal recruits a lot of elite talent and seems to have a fondness for true point guards: guys who are a little ball-dominant and don’t shoot it well from deep. As a result, the guards that he recruits who can shoot it are rarely getting reps with the ball in their hands — or at least rarely getting good reps due to the spacing concerns around him. Instead, Calipari uses them as guys who run off screens along the baselines or spot up in the corners in his movement-based offensive system.
Data has backed up the clear delineation of these roles. Over the last eight seasons, look at the Wildcats backcourt and see how one player gets primary reps while the other takes a clear backseat in the pick-and-roll.
Washington is the guy that bucks the trend. Somehow, both he and Sahvir Wheeler were getting more pick-and-roll opportunities than any tandem before. The presence of Davidson transfer Kellen Grady in the shooting specialist role actually moved TyTy into a more idealized form. While many talented combo guards like Booker, Murray, Herro and Quickley have blossomed in the NBA when the shackles of the screen-running role they’re in at Kentucky come off, Washington is less likely to experience such a boon. His usage wasn’t very similar this year, nor was his production.
Below is a look at the PNR and off-screen production from each of the top combo guards at Kentucky over that eight-year span. Washington’s PNR volume by far the largest. We surmise that, when not sharing the floor with non-shooters like Wheeler and Oscar Tshiebwe, his overall production out of screens (especially at the rim, where he was only 5-10) will increase.
The clearly elite shooters, like Booker and Murray, were elite no matter what role they were placed in. Yet none featured anywhere near the assist rate, ball screen reps or infrequency used darting off screens that Washington was placed in. This year’s Kentucky group is clearly different than in years past — whether due to Washington or merely impacting his usage.
Washington also took a circuitous path just to get to Lexington. The 5-star recruit was initially committed to Creighton before he rescinded that promise following Blue Jays coach Greg McDermott’s controversial comments about “staying on the plantation.” That de-commitment came in early April, at a time when John Calipari and company were aiming to bring in G-League Ignite star Jaden Hardy. Hardy spurned them in mid-May, and 48 hours later, Wheeler was announced as an addition to the Wildcats program.
The contrast between Wheeler and Hardy is stark, and one that heavily impacted how Washington was played and utilized. We believe Calipari’s ideal foresight for this year’s Kentucky team was to play Washington as the full-time point guard, have Hardy in an off-ball role, but be able to interchange both a bit because both can shoot. Their balance would have most closely resembled the 2020 group with Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickly, with Washington playing in a Maxey role.
The discourse around Washington would be drastically different as a prospect had he actually played that role. And while we could play the ‘what if’ game for days, the fact of the matter is this: TyTy is a very good shooter, and it only serves as a positive for him long-term that he can play on-ball or off-ball. Our key is to figure out who and what he is and will be, not necessarily what he could have been with different teammates.
The big question for any team drafting Washington is how to divide the balance between on-ball or off-ball reps and development.
By our measure after watching the film, we’d let him operate with the ball in his hands more than without it. He is not an elite space-creator, but he is a very good passer, an elite mid-range scorer (a space most don’t need to create because NBA defenses will give it to you) and hits tough shots even without a great amount of space. Imagining what he can do as a playmaker and finisher in a spread pick-and-roll scheme (something he didn’t get at all at Kentucky) gets us really excited about his long-term offensive upside.
More than other backcourt prospects with lottery intrigue, Washington’s realization of his potential will be somewhat dependent on the situation he arrives in. He needs some on-ball reps and pick-and-roll spacing to thrive. He also needs another primary creator to handle self-creation reps in late-clock situations and a scheme that will allow him to play off-ball. All that while guarding the 2 more than the 1.
A few teams stand out as great fits. The Portland Trail Blazers, with Damian Lillard at the helm, would give him all those offensive characteristics while letting him play the 2 on defense. With the New York Knicks, he could let RJ Barrett or Julius Randle run the offense and would be an ideal fit, but we worry about him guarding the point on a team already porous on that end. He’d be solid in San Antonio too, where the Spurs could hide his defensive traits well.
With all that catering to in order to maximize his role, is Washington really worth a lottery pick? We believe he is, is due largely to how he produced before suffering a tough ankle sprain in January.
Prior to Washington getting injured in the first half of a key SEC matchup at Auburn, he was playing incredibly well. 14.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists per game while shooting 51% from the field and 40% from 3. After the injury he looked hampered, not fully healthy and struggled mightily, never regaining that groove. In only two minutes per game fewer, his production took a nosedive: 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists and shooting 36% from the field and 29% from 3.
We’re willing to look at him as being much closer to the prospect we saw early in the year prior to the flat tire and some off-court personal struggles while mom was battling kidney failure. Guys like him don’t just get worse as the season goes on, and the specific context surrounding him personally does count for something.
Based on Washington’s stats, production, on-ball usage and assist to turnover metrics, he comes off with a similarity score in the realm of more PNR-heavy point guards than scorers. The NBA Draft Comparison Tool system places Washington as a statistical overlap with prospects Shane Larkin, Ty Jerome, Demetrius Jackson and Monte Moore. Yet a big reason for that is Washington’s relatively low usage rate, playing third-option in Lexington behind the dominant interior scoring of Oscar Tshiebwe and the PNR playmaking of Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler. More spacing could increase his scoring and propel him into a higher-tier comparison.
Washington is a fairly safe player, a do-it-all backcourt option who is a smooth operator and impactful off-ball threat. How high his ceiling is — and his likelihood of being more than just a capable second-unit facilitator who can shoot — will depend on some important factors. Stretching his range off the dribble, increasing his space creation in isolations and getting increased pick-and-roll reps. A trickier prospect than he should be thanks to Kentucky’s well-defined roles, Washington should go in the top-18 in this draft and could be a guy who sneaks into the top ten.
Below are some statistical profiles and outlooks on Washington