Vie for Victor: Why Wembanyama is Already Altering the NBA
The world's best prospect is so coveted that we are already seeing an increase in teams positioning themselves atop next year's draft
If the New York Knicks play in Utah on Wednesday and then in Portland on Friday, their coaching staff isn’t thinking about the Trail Blazers for the first time on Thursday morning. Quite the contrary, their staff is spending time game-planning and putting together a scouting report for days, if not weeks, leading up to their arrival on the West Coast.
The assistant coaches aren’t the ones doing the entirety of the scouting process, though. The Knicks (and every NBA franchise) employs what are known as advanced scouts, extensions of the coaching staff and front office whose job is to literally get an advanced look at teams on the schedule.
With all the money that goes into professional sports, the draft is no different. The general manager and scouting staff in a front office don’t think about the 2023 or 2024 NBA Drafts for the first time the day after the 2022 draft wraps up. Future scouts, as we call them, are part of the process for these teams, looking ahead at the high school, international and AAU circuits to keep tabs on the guys who will someday be involved in the NBA Draft.
This year’s draft cycle will be a prime example of why. Coming down the pipeline to the NBA in one year’s time is Victor Wembanyama, the French phenom with otherworldly combinations of size, skill, athleticism and shot-making. He’s a 2K MyPlayer come to life, a cheat code in the modern NBA, and the best prospect in the world today.
What we are seeing is a phenomenon where several NBA teams are valuing the future — and the potential of hitting jackpot so they can select Victor — over making more aggressive win-now moves. The San Antonio Spurs recently traded their best player in Dejounte Murray for three future selections, stockpiling young talent and future assets while plunging towards the bottom of the Western Conference standings. With loads of cap space, the Detroit Pistons took the long view and have seemingly taken themselves out of the running for marquee free agents this year, taking on assets and staying young enough to not make a giant leap immediately. Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been not-so-subtle about their race to the bottom.
Other teams are joining in on the fun. The Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards are all within striking distance of tearing down their veteran assets to bottom-out, and the Utah Jazz could be on the verge of an all-out blowup.
The question is why. It isn’t just timelines or necessary rebuilds. It’s the potential that is coming in the 2023 draft class. Elite names stand at the top — at more than just the number one overall pick. Scoot Henderson of the G-League Ignite is a candidate to go with the top pick in pretty much any other year.
But Victor is… different. He’s one-of-a-kind, oozing long-term potential while having an already-established elite impact.
So let’s get to know Wembanyama a bit and find out — more than 350 days ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft — why teams are vying to get to the bottom to select him.
Standing 7’3”, Wembanyama would enter the NBA taller than every guy in the league except Boban Marjanovic. His wingspan, which is listed as being anywhere from 7’8” to 7’10”, would be a thing of legend once measured, and it’s possible his standing reach is right at the rim.
Obviously, that gives Victor some important advantages on defense. He’s every bit the shot blocker you’d expect. But Wembanyama, skinny and wiry with his length, is super coordinated and really quick on his feet. He isn’t this plodding big man with immense size, he’s a nimble athlete with quickness and the ability to use his length well.
When talking about big men with unique skills, Wembanyama is both a potentially game-changing rim protector and a switchable isolation defender who alters any jumper taken in front of him.
Offensively, the finishing impact is clear. Wembanyama can lunge forward into a dunk while barely leaving the ground. He catches every lob thrown within his vicinity and has this rare ability to leap while almost hitting his head on the backboard. He’s the perfect roll man.
Victor is also a really skilled perimeter player. He takes guys off the bounce regularly, has flashed shooting potential (27.5% from 3, but with smooth form), and some really nice passing reads. As he just turned 18 in January and is playing in a professional league, many of his passing reads, shooting consistency and finishing efficiency aren’t polished yet. But in terms of upside, there is nothing on either end of the floor that Victor isn’t someday capable of doing.
Don’t just take it from us. Some other draft experts have weighed in on just how special Wembanyama can be.
Jeremy Woo from Sports Illustrated:
Gifted with incredible size, length, mobility, and skill, Wembanyama has already attained the type of lofty prospect status we haven’t seen in quite some time. It’s hard to make direct comparisons with Wembanyama’s game because there’s never been a prospect quite like him, but he has the defensive chops to be a Rudy Gobert-like rim protector, and there are moments on offense where he moves like Kevin Durant. He’s huge and nimble, he can handle and shoot, and his frame is still maturing. At 7' 3" and 240 pounds with a 7' 9" wingspan, he’s averaged 16 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals per-36 minutes this year as an 18-year-old in France.
Ricky O’Donnell of SB Nation:
Watching Wembanyama roam the court feels like witnessing an alien sent to Earth with the ideal package of length, skills, and athleticism to play the sport. He is listed at 7’2, 230 pounds, with a 7’9 wingspan, and that feels conservative. He has exceptional mobility for his size, not just straight line speed and lateral quickness, but also a level of agility and flexibility that is startling to see for someone with his frame. He has flashed a serious amount of skill, too, regularly splashing three-pointers, throwing eye-popping passes, and finishing plays way above the rim on both ends… Wembanyama can be anything and everything. He’s going to be an incredible rim protector on defense and lob threat on offense — but that’s just tip of the iceberg. He’s already taking and making three-pointers off movement. He’s moving the ball quickly on the perimeter as a passer. He’s wiping away entire sections of the floor defensively with the threat of his shot-blocking.
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony & Mike Schmitz:
After missing some time because of injury earlier in the year, Wembanyama has hit stride over the past 10 games (EuroLeague and France Pro A), averaging 13.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 21.6 minutes while shooting 63% from 2 and 50% from 3. Even more impressive than the production has been how Wembanyama is getting his numbers. ASVEL is springing him free with off-ball screens like a wing, unleashing his feathery shooting touch. With his handle and footwork on display, he has been looking like a bigger Kevin Durant at times by splashing self-created step-back 3s. He's starting to add a more advanced midpost package, fading into back-shoulder turnarounds with incredible ease. He's getting to lobs no other player on the planet could even think of. On top of that, he's protecting the rim at an elite level -- well ahead of Rudy Gobert at the same stage -- while also showing the ability to step out and switch onto guards unlike any player we've previously seen at his height. Wembanyama is the only player in EuroLeague history to record a block percentage over 12%.
This upcoming season should reveal more intriguing looks into Victor’s game. More isolation buckets, more movement 3-pointers, more possessions where he makes instinctual defensive reads. A year out of the draft, he’s farther along than pretty much any prospect we’ve ever seen. He’s dominant as a teenager with a sky-high ceiling that he doesn’t seem very close to at the moment. His physical gifts are apparent, but he’s so much more skilled than he gets credit for.