Walker Kessler: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
After a resurgence at Auburn, Kessler's defensive impact may carry him to a first-round selection and translatable role to the NBA
Big men who protect the rim have clear value in their translation to the NBA. Auburn sophomore post Walker Kessler does that incredibly well and is coming off a legendary, perhaps greatest-of-all-time shot blocking season at the college level.
How good was Kessler anchoring Auburn’s defense as a top-ten team in the country for most of the year? He finished the season with 155 blocks, tops in the nation, and tied for the national lead with 4.6 blocks per game. He’s the only player in the basketball-reference database to post a block rate of 19% or over while playing more than 400 minutes in a season. He’s also one of three college basketball players ever to register 150 blocks and 10 made 3-pointers in the same season.
At a towering 7’1”, Kessler is much more mobile than many bird-legged or thick-bodied bigs. He shows flashes of switchability onto the perimeter, good ground coverage from the weak side and a comfort level that very few his size have away from the hoop. The biggest questions for evaluating Kessler’s defensive trajectory is how much that can carry over to an NBA floor. Will he be just another Drop coverage big, or can he mix things up in a more aggressive style of pick-and-roll defense?
Despite the prolific season, Kessler certainly has a lot of areas to clean up on that end of the floor. He does foul a lot, registering 6.1 fouls per 100 possessions over the course of his college career. Verticality is well-taught and drilled into his brain: he jumps straight up and is constantly trying to leap off the floor in that manner. But he doesn’t stay disciplined. His arms come down to swat at shots, which create fouls when he misses the ball, and he jumps forward while his arms are straight up, defeating the purpose of verticality altogether.
Defensive discipline is lacking for Kessler with many of his fouls, especially on the perimeter. He tries to block everything, so he lunges at perimeter shooters, bites on nearly every pump fake and gets himself into trouble as a result. Moreover, the NCAA Tournament exposed some issues with projecting his movement in space at the next level. Both Miami and Jacksonville State targeted him on the perimeter (and head coach Bruce Pearl wasn’t smart enough to expose him less to those situations, continuing to hard hedge or let teams force switches onto guards).
Miami attacked him endlessly in their 5-out scheme, mirroring the attack the Los Angeles Clippers deployed against Rudy Gobert during the 2021 NBA Playoffs. Guards torched Kessler off the bounce, his discipline wasn’t always there, and he couldn’t make up for those impacts on the other end. If Kessler is going to become a starting-caliber big in the NBA, he needs to address the mobility concerns a tad, or be utilized in a scheme that exposes him to the perimeter less.
Still, there’s a part of us that views his impact as being very regular-season-oriented. In the playoffs, when gameplans and rotation changes can go after a player’s flaws possession after possession, Kessler stands out as a big man whose role may not provide much value over another big man with increased versatility, athleticism, offensive impact or discipline.
Offensively, Kessler is an efficient finisher near the rim who converted on 30 of 32 pick-and-roll attempts diving to the hoop, according to Synergy Sports Tech. That’s the best in college basketball for anyone who took at least 15 attempts there. Metric after metric indicates just how dominant Kessler was at the college level based on his size — on both ends. The NBA is a different game based more on skill and angles, not as much size. How he handles the increased athleticism around him will be telling.
As far as skill goes, Kessler is behind many other bigs in the category. Based on your vantage point, he has a very unique relationship with 3-point shooting upside, one that would certainly unlock a new ceiling to make him that rare, tantalizing stretch-5.