Weekend Update: Top Prospects Show Out
Impressive outings from top-tier freshmen highlight the best games from 2023 NBA Draft prospects this weekend
It’s baaaaack!
Last year, one of our favorite weekly series was our Weekend Update, stealing the popular segment from Saturday Night Live and twisting it into an NBA Draft bit. As we get past the holiday season and into conference play, basically every team in the country plays at least one game from Friday to Sunday.
We get to peruse the country and watch as much basketball as we can to highlight some of the best prospect performances from the weekend. This weekend had a distinct lottery flavor to it, as the players with a real shot of going in the top ten mainly performed well. We highlight some of those positive performances, as well as a few under-the-radar draft prospects with impressive showings.
Keyonte George - PG, Baylor
Positions don’t mean much in the modern NBA. The balance of skills and sizes on a floor is what matters; those with length, shooting, and playmaking provide enough versatility to color different boxes so that positional labels get shattered. For a guard, Keyonte George has decent size and length, is pretty strong, and plays both on-ball and off-ball due to his shooting ability.
We’ve made a shift, however, in the positional archetype that we place George under. Previously listed as a combo guard due to the off-ball prowess he has, the pick-and-roll impact and playmaking have caused us to believe his best professional role will be as more of a primary initiator. It’s not that he’s a poor shooter and can’t play off-ball, it’s more that he’s a really good high-volume creator.
We saw the physicality and attack-minded nature from George this weekend in an overtime contest against Kansas State. George drew a whopping twelve personal fouls on Wildcats defenders, lived at the free throw line, got to play in transition, and was a terror in the mid-range.
That mid-range prowess is a huge reason why he projects more as a primary to us. His floater is excellent, and he’s a fantastic pull-up shooter… he made a few tough ones through contact on Saturday. That mid-range scoring pairs nicely with his pick-and-roll playmaking.
Although not the most efficient scorer right now, George is confident and has been deserving of PNR reps. He keeps being coachable and adding layers to his game, has developed on defense rather quickly, and is at least aggressive seeking contact to compensate for his lack of overall quickness when driving to the rim. He’s figuring out how to be impactful, and that’s the type of growth we want to see throughout the season.
Cam Whitmore - ATH, Villanova
Speaking of growth, Saturday’s game against Xavier was by far the best offensive showing from freshman Cam Whitmore. We’ve been somewhat critical of the speed and decisiveness of Whitmore’s moves off the catch this year; he tends to be more of a catch-and-survey threat than a quick rip guy.
On Saturday, he looked much more decisive. There were cuts off the ball, quick stutter-rip moves, and decisive pull-up jumpers. Late when Villanova was trying to mount a comeback, Whitmore just put his head down and got to the rim, finally tapping into that burst and takeover gene that we hoped to see.
Cam still has a lot of areas to clean up. He creates very little for others, has his flaws on the defensive end, and isn’t the most consistent shooter. But he has one undeniably elite trait with his strength off the bounce. The more he utilizes it and quickly rips to get downhill, the more his jumper will open up. Bite-sized improvement from Whitmore, but improvement nonetheless.
Brandon Miller - W, Alabama
Man, Alabama throttled the 1998 John Calipari Kentucky Wildcats. The Crimson Tide picked them apart in the first half through the pick-and-roll, drawing Oscar Tshiebwe away from the basket and causing defensive lapse after defensive lapse. The Tide took him away on the other end with their length and their collective rebounding limited second-chance points. It was a bloodbath for 40 minutes.
Miller seemed to not be the focal point of that attack, as Nate Oats trusted his guards to do the early lifting against Kentucky. Plus, Jacob Toppin did a great job individually against Miller in the first half, showing a glimpse of the separation issues that Brandon might face in the NBA. It wasn’t all roses for the Crimson Tide freshman… until Toppin exited with an injury.
Miller got one leakout slam in the second half and went on a mini-run all by himself. He seemed to be more confident in attacking the basket, and he made a point to get to the rim more often. He’s taken 21 shots at the rim over the last two games (10.5 per game), with only 42 over his first 14 games (3 per game).
We know Miller can shoot and has some craft as a pick-and-roll handler; at his size, that alone makes him lottery-worthy. If he can continue to be aggressive and put pressure on the rim, he’ll balance out his scoring profile quite nicely. There’s a lot of work to be done still, and the first half revealed a few warts in his arsenal. Still, a good game from Miller.
Dariq Whitehead - W, Duke
Don’t look now, but Dariq Whitehead is figuring it out. Over his last four games (a small sample size, especially since one of them was against Maryland-Eastern Shore), Dariq has averaged 15.3 points on 47-43-100 splits. He’s been far more of a jump shooter than an actual balanced scorer; more than 60% of his attempts come from deep and he’s only taken eight free throws total in that span (and 13 on the season).
However, we’re seeing the confidence and rhythm start to come back. He’s a really good shooter, and a player who exists well within the flow of offense. Duke can run him off handoffs, Zoom actions, or second-side pick-and-rolls and he makes an imapct. He feels when he’s open to pull from deep and is quick at getting his pull-up jumper off.
The schedule has been kind to the Blue Devils as they kick of ACC play, going against NC State, Florida State, and BC twice. This next week they’ll face Pittsburgh and Clemson, two teams atop the ACC standings currently but without that firepower of typical NCAA Tournament teams. It’s been a great runway for Whitehead to get going, and he should have another week or two to keep improving before the schedule gets filled with dynamic defensive groups.
Gradey Dick - W, Kansas
Few things get me as excited as a specialty 3-point threat. Gradey Dick’s consistency this year is a marvel. He’s shooting 48.2% from 3 on high volume. While he makes it look easy, some of his looks are very difficult. His release has to be quick because of the ferocious closeouts he faces, and several of the shots feature a no-dip in his shot. He’s constantly moving, knows how to clear out and wait for the play to come to him, and runs the floor well in transition.
Everything about Dick’s game is efficient. He doesn’t put the ball on the floor a ton and can finish near the rim because he takes the right ones. Against West Virginia, his 16 points doesn’t feel all that impressive, but for the limited number of touches he got — and the way his shooting gravity opens up opportunities for others — he was wildly impactful.
Dick can become a lottery pick if a team feels that they have the defensive infrastructure in place to protect him. He needs it badly, though it’s much easier to blanket a 6’7” wing than a smaller guard. He’s been one of the biggest risers this season and doesn’t seem to have bad games.
Emoni Bates - ATH, Eastern Michigan
The move from Memphis to Eastern Michigan was once doubted (even by me) and felt like a strange fit. Now that Bates is here, the fit makes perfect sense: he found a school that would let him dominate the ball and have as long of a leash as needed. With that long leash, we’ve been reminded of the insane shot-making prowess that Bates possesses. He can heat up in a hurry, drills tough jumpers all over the floor, and loves to get to the rim.
With this much of the season under his belt, we’re also seeing the flaws that Emoni has which could limit him at the next level. Bates is not a passer; he’s out there looking to score and score only. He also needs a long leash in order to get hot and stay hot, meaning a ridiculous volume with little creation for others. In just under half of his games this year, he’s had zero assists.
Saturday was another such day. He got to the rim more, attacked in transition, and was aggressive on the glass against Central Michigan, but was once again absent as a passer. He’s only had three assists or more once this season, and sports a 13:32 assist to turnover ratio.
Assist numbers are always impacted by teammates making shots. For Emoni, he rarely puts pressure on the rim in the half-court and lives outside the 3-point line as a high-volume jump shooter. He rarely draws secondary defenders as a result, so his opportunities to create for others are limited.
We believe that, in order to play that type of style, the threshold is risen for impact. Essentially, Emoni has to be incredibly consistent and efficient as a shooter to justify such usage at the next level. His 43.8% field goal numbers are so-so, and his 1.09 PPP on pull-up jumpers are really impressive. We need more of the season to go by before anointing him worthwhile, but he is knocking on that door. As such, he remains on that borderline first-round bubble and watchlist.