Weekend Update with Coach Spins: Jan. 31, 2022
The Big 12-SEC Challenge yielded some important prospect results, as well as some other key matchups from the weekend
College basketball’s weekend didn’t see a major slate of upsets, but plenty of steady prospect showings. Sometimes there’s joy to be found in the mundane, just the ho-hum continuation of expectations and the consistent hand that help their team through the doldrums of January.
Let’s look at a few prospects who caught our eye this weekend for being steady: the guys whose box scores or highlight packages aren’t always the most eye-grabbing but who continue to put themselves in great positions for dependable NBA careers.
Paolo Banchero - F, Duke
Jabari Smith and Auburn may be getting all the collegiate spotlights due to their ascent to the #1 spot nationally, but Paolo Banchero remains our top prospect in the 2022 draft class.
Why?
Poise and playmaking that combine with a transcendently polished scoring arsenal. The game slows down when the ball is in his hands. He’s been a much more balanced playmaker, averaging 3.6 AST over his last eight games. He gets to the free throw line, will face up or back down his man and has an arsenal complete with disarming moves like stutter rips, double jabs and spinning turnarounds in the mid-range.
We don’t worry that much about the 3-point range and believe the smooth mechanics of his jumper, plus approaching 33% from deep on solid volume, will turn into decent output at the next level. Right now, Banchero is the guy who holds Duke’s offense together, rare to be said for a top scoring option instead of a playmaker or glue guy. The stat line against Louisville may not have been dominant, but it was clear he was the best player on the floor.
Max Christie - W, Michigan State
On Saturday, the in-state rivals of Michigan and Michigan State did battle in an emotional and important Big Ten affair. It was one of the more intriguing games on the weekend slate, as two of the nation’s hottest freshmen shooters — Max Christie and Caleb Houstan — did battle in an important draft stock temperature check. Both started in the first-rounds, were cool to start the season to drop their stock, and have rebounded nicely over the last week or two.
Right out of the gates, it was clear which player was more ready to appear on an NBA floor. Max Christie, scoring 14 points by halftime, was aggressive and hot from the start. Caleb Houstan, who finished with 11 points, took only six field goal attempts and was much quieter.
Over the last eight games, Christie is averaging 12.6 points while shooting over 50% from 3-point range. An extended heater like that is no accident for a shooting specialist, and his small glimpses of athleticism and off-the-dribble shot-making reinforce the upside he has to do more in the NBA:
Rumor on the street is that Christie will only declare for the draft if he’s guaranteed a certain spot and is high enough on draft boards. At this point, Christie is in the top-15 on our board, all but guaranteeing that he’d come out of school to become a lottery pick. As he keeps trending in the right direction, Christie becomes the right kind of guy to take.
Jeremy Sochan - W, Baylor
There are three Baylor Bears with first-round grades and impact: Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown and Matthew Mayer. Throughout the first parts of the season, we’ve shuffled the order of all three on our boards, with Brown’s stock the most volatile going high and low.
After Saturday’s performance against Alabama, Sochan stands out as the guy with the highest NBA ceiling. His on-ball defense is flat-out engulfing, he moves his feet so well to guard multiple positions, has an elite wingspan and defends without fouling. Baylor’s performance suffered when he was out with an ankle injury; he might be their most important player, rare to say for a freshman.
Offensively, there are things to like about Sochan that the other Bears wings can’t boast. He’s shooting 42.4% on catch-and-shoot jumpers (Kendall Brown is a measley 3-14). Sochan is finishing 61.3% of his half-court rim attempts (Mayer is only at 53.5%). On Saturday on the road against Alabama, Sochan was the guy fighting to the very final minutes to create a situation where the Bears were still alive:
In this draft class, we’re avoiding moving guys up or down boards in a reactionary fashion. At this point, Sochan’s ascent doesn’t feel too much like a quick reaction. Over his last five full games (excluding the 8 minutes before getting injured vs. TCU), he’s averaging 9.8 PTS, 6.4 REB, 1.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK on 60% FG and 6-12 (50%) from 3-point range. He’s toolsy and efficient, and the defense is still the best part of his game. Hard to deny his first-round stock.
Mike Miles - PG, TCU
After a standout performance against Baylor that saw the Horned Frogs take them to the wire, Mike Miles has been a bit quiet. Earlier this week, we went on the No Ceilings Podcast and discussed Miles: his need to strengthen his statistical impact and help the Horned Frogs rack up a signature win to justify making him a first-round talent.
On Saturday, he did both. Miles finished a key game in the Big Twelve-SEC challenge with 19 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and only 1 turnover against the top defense in the nation in LSU. Miles carried the Horned Frogs to a big win.
Consider how Miles got his points, too. He didn’t hit a 3-pointer, was guarded by some of the better individual defenders in the nation and hit tough bucket after tough bucket.
An efficient signature performance in a home win against a ranked team with an elite defense? Sign us up. The 19-year-old was fantastic on Saturday and should be knocking on the door of the first round in a weaker point guard class.
Caleb Love - PG, North Carolina
Speaking of fringe first-round point guards, Caleb Love had a great afternoon on Saturday in a big rivalry game against NC State. Love was his typical self, drilling 3-point jumpers and tough pull-ups whenever he found space, and even sprinkled in a nice finish at the rim or two. Finishing remains an inconsistent part of his game, so it was nice to see a few layup attempts go down.
The appeal to Love is all offensively. He’s an uninspired defender with slow-twitch reactions. But man can this kid shoot: off the bounce, spotting up, in the mid-range or from 3, he lets it fly. He’s up to 43.2% from 3-point range on the season, including 4-6 on Saturday as he finished with 21 points and 5 assists with only 1 turnover.
The ball security number is important. For poor scorers on the interior, wild layup attempts can be just as bad as turnovers: they give the defense a chance to transition to the other end with a numbers advantage. If Love is going to make it in the NBA, yes he’ll need improved defense. But he can’t afford to be both a poor finisher and a high turnover guard.
Small steps in the right direction for Love, who has 4 turnovers or more in one-third of his games on the season. Those numbers stay down and we could be advocating for him to truly be a first-round selection.
Isaiah Mobley - P, USC
With younger brother Evan off to a great start in his pro career, Isaiah Mobley is doing great things back in Los Angeles. He’s anchoring a top-15 team in the country on both ends: 14.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 blocks on 46.4% shooting and 39.8% shooting from deep on 4 attempts per game.
Mobley will turn 23 before the start of next year’s NBA season, making him a rather old prospect in draft terms. But the fact Mobley is still relevant in draft circles speaks to the modernity of his game and the work done by his brother in Cleveland to prove that two skilled bigs, if versatile enough individually, can win games together in the NBA.