What Wins in the NBA? 5 Takeaways from the 2023 NBA Playoffs
Just in time before the draft, the postseason is an important reminder about what makes great teams great
Year after year, I pound the drum on the same mantra: you draft for playoff success.
The 2023 NBA Playoffs have produced a little bit of a ‘David vs. Goliath’ mentality as the Denver Nuggets steamrolled through the Western Conference and the Miami Heat shocked their way through the East. Both have drastically different roster constructions, but both are pretty perfectly molded to get the most out of their stars and to optimize what their role players bring to the table.
If I were to boil down some of these lessons and takeaways to a few bullet points that are important to drafting for playoff success, these are the five that I would jump to first:
1. Winning the Rim Decision
…and
2. Making the Right Advantage Decision
About a week ago, I wrote a more in-depth piece about a possession that took place during the Celtics and Heat series, one that has illuminated the importance of floor spacing and ball movement in today’s NBA. When games are on the line most, good star players create advantages for their teams. Great role players sustain that advantage by either shooting or moving the ball and making the right decision with when to get rid of the rock and where to swing it.
This idea of winning the rim decision (do I attempt a layup or do I kick it to the open man?) and of winning the next decision (do I shoot it, swing the ball to the next guy, or re-penetrate?) are all vital to punishing a defense and creating the right shot for the team. And with five shooters or scoring threats on the floor, great ball movement can sustain an advantage to ensure there’s an open look.
Great offense trumps great defense.
As such, I’m really starting to prioritize the combination of shooting and decision-making in an off-ball setting. We talk about feel a lot for playmakers with the ball in their hands (ie the guys who make the right ‘rim decision’) but it’s just as important to great team offense to have guys who are smart decision-makers on the perimeter (ie the guys who make the right ‘advantage decision’).
There’s a connection between the two, but I’m starting to really value extra passers who swing it quickly, those who shoot the ball in different areas, and guys who have driving traits including long strides and quick attacks off the closeout.
3. Teams are being more aggressive defensively on the perimeter
There’s no margin for error in the playoffs. Teams cannot sit back passively in Drop coverage and let other great guards go out there and win games against them. The adjustment is to be more aggressive and go out to pick up the ball higher on the 3-point line.
Big men defenders need to be mobile and able to show-and-recover on the perimeter if a team is going to take down an opposing star player. We saw in Games 6 and 7 of the Celtics-Sixers series some of the challenges that Joel Embiid had and how a star like Jayson Tatum could tear that apart.
Bigger wings that cross-match and pre-switch can be nice counter-measures.
4. Get a Short Roll Playmaker to pair with your Star Guard
The best perimeter players who command that aforementioned extra attention start to see multiple hands and two defenders more frequently. The best and easiest way to sustain an advantage is to use that star as, occasionally, a decoy and trust that a short roll playmaker can win the 4-on-3 advantage created by the aggressive defense.
During the play-in, we saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander get the trap treatment. He had Jaylin Williams to hit on the short roll, and the Thunder offense kept humming. Williams had 8 assists in one play-in game. Conversely, the Knicks star Jalen Brunson got continually trapped, and Mitchell Robinson really struggled to make sound decisions out of the short roll — it cost the Knicks.
These last two categories are really more about the traits needed for big men in today’s NBA. They need to either defend on the perimeter (hedge, if not switch) or exploit teams that do (major interior scorer and dominant MVP offensive hub, or short roll playmaker).
Look at the final eight teams standing and the big men on their roster. They have the right combinations of playmaking and mobility to check those boxes for their teams.
Denver Nuggets: MVP candidate Nikola Jokic who is a tremendous passer/ handler, and has had some success playing at the level of the screen
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo is a great handler and underrated passer inside 15 feet. He’s also one of the most versatile inside-outside big men defensively.
Boston Celtics: Both Al Horford and Rob Williams have shown switchability in key ways this postseason, with Horford being versatile up and down the lineup while Williams had his moments as the primary defender on Jimmy Butler and switching screens. Horford can shoot and is a better short roll passer, but Williams remains a vastly underrated decision-maker in the area.
Los Angeles Lakers: I mean… Anthony Davis embodies literally all these things.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid’s defensive struggles helped the Sixers exit a bit early, but he’s so dominant on the other end that he punishes teams who switch. He also was a great pick-and-roll partner for James Harden because of the fear of the switch. The Sixers were one game away from moving on… it’s not disaster time, they just need Embiid to exploit his advantages a little more often.
Golden State Warriors: The combination of Draymond Green and Kevon Looney is fantastic. Green is fully switchable and the greatest short roll passer of all time. Looney is no slouch here, and he tore apart the Sacramento Kings at different times during the first round as a short roll playmaker. He’s also more mobile on D than he gets credit for.
Phoenix Suns: I… I think we’ve identified a flaw in the roster construction here!
New York Knicks: We talked about Mitchell Robinson a little earlier and his struggles on offense. But man… Isaiah Hartenstein is a nice backup option to have who embodies many of these traits. Hey… at least there are options!
This doesn’t mean it’s the death of the Drop coverage center. It just takes different ingredients around them to win in the playoffs or some willingness to do more away from the basket. In thinking about Dereck Lively in this class, he shows enough mobility and demonstrated positive traits in the short roll where I don’t think these worries really apply to him.
5. A chip on your shoulder
About a week ago, I threw together a long Twitter thread about the characteristics that make the Miami Heat great. It’s worth a read, as it dives into both intangibles and play style, but has changed my perception in one key area: undrafted players.
The Miami Heat have several helping them during the postseason, including Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Haywood Highsmith. That’s right — FIVE players in the Heat rotation were undrafted players.
What they all have in common is the chip on their shoulder mentality to keep getting better and proving people wrong. They’re mentally tough and have been through a lot, proven themselves in the G-League, and are accepting of whatever role is best for the team.
When evaluating prospects outside my top-40 or top-45, I think it’s really important to filter guys based on their mental makeup, unique pathway, and ability to just keep getting better.