Wrestle With This: Is Shooting All That Matters?
We often hear that it's an important skill, but from a team standpoint, does success come down to making more shots?
This is an installment in the ‘Wrestle With This’ series, a collection of small articles on musings or questions I’ve gained when thinking about the ‘why’ behind draft strategy. While I may not have answers to these questions I pose, I at least want to breach the conversation and allow there to be a discussion on the topic.
In early September, I was listening to my good friend Caitlin Cooper as a guest on the Dunc’d On Podcast (shout out to Caitlin, she’s the absolute best). I love listening to her pods because she’s so insightful and I guarantee I come away with a handful of new things I’ve learned.
In their discussion of Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton, Cooper brought up how the two should be kept together in lineups; that they bring out the best in each other. Hield’s shooting is vital for Haliburton to operate in space, and Hield gets cleaner and easier looks as a result of Tyrese’s playmaking prowess. They are vital to keep together when constructing the lineup, and it’s got me thinking about how crucial it is for any young top option to have an elite shooter flanking them.
In thinking about how these two complement each other, I’ve often bought into the Indiana Pacers being a team that can maximize their players simply because they have space on the court. Tyrese Haliburton is an All-Star creator, and when he was healthy last year, the Pacers were a .500 team, a top-five offense, and on pace to make the playoffs. Their formula was simple and allowed them to win more games than their talent level might suggest: get an elite creator, surround him with shooters, and then figure the rest out later.
Last year, 14 NBA teams took 38% or more of their total shots from 3-point range. 10 of them made the playoffs. 13 of those 14 teams shot 35% from 3 or above. All teams that shot 37% from deep made the playoffs last year except for the Dallas Mavericks. Only the Heat and Lakers shot below 35% from deep and made the postseason.
Is shooting the ultimate trait in today’s NBA? Teams seem to need to have those shooters to keep up with the scoring explosion going on in the league. That shooting, when a real threat, can also help teams get easier shots and more space to operate on the interior.
So what does this mean for prospect scouting? Two lessons that I can immediately see most broadly: draft guys who can shoot/ contribute to your spacing, and make roster-based decisions that don’t threaten your team’s ability to field a lineup that is viable.
Disagree with that take? I can certainly understand why — and I don’t mean to reduce a complex game down to a simple stat or trait. But too often in prospect evaluation I think we look at an individual’s skills and what they do well when the ultimate goal is to field a winning team and a group of guys who fit well together. Shooting isn’t just a great way to make those pieces fit, but when the volume needs to be high in order to keep up with the winning teams in the league, it’s a necessity to have guys who can produce on volume.
I really appreciate this part: "I think we look at an individual’s skills and what they do well when the ultimate goal is to field a winning team and a group of guys who fit well together."
I think a holistic team building perspective is very helpful in player evaluation for a team game like basketball.