2022 NBA Draft Final Big Board: Part 1
Tiers 10 and 9 of our final big board look at the late-round value picks that we'd consider in the back-half of the second round, as well as the rest of our Top 100
It’s here.
Finally.
Less than a week away, we are ready to start publishing our final version of the 2022 NBA Draft Big Board. Ours will come out in five separate installments going by tiers of talent, working our way up to the best of the best in this class.
If you want to skip the line and see the entire Big Board and Top-150, you can do so by subscribing to the Box and One’s paid membership plan, where our Big Board is live now and ready for all to access.
Without further adieu, let’s get into the prospects!
The Rest of the Top 150
150. Ryan Turell, Yeshiva
149. Evan Battey, Colorado
148. Sam Waardenburg, Miami (FL)
147. Jahvon Quinerly, Alabama
146. Grant Golden, Richmond
145. Sasha Stefanovic, Purdue
144. Anthony Duruji, Florida
143. Daequon Plowden, Bowling Green
142. Paul Scruggs, Xavier
141. Donovan Williams, UNLV
140. Savion Flagg, Sam Houston State
139. Jamal Cain, Oakland
138. Kai Sotto, Adelaide 36ers
137. Luka Brajkovic, Davidson
136. Grayson Murphy, Belmont
135. Jordan Usher, Georgia Tech
134. Justin Minaya, Providence
133. AJ Green, Northern Iowa
132. Javante McCoy, Boston University
131. Tommy Kuhse, Saint Mary’s
130. Alex Barcello, BYU
129. David McCormack, Kansas
128. Lester Quinones, Memphis
127. Kameron McGusty, Miami (FL)
126. RJ Cole, Connecticut
125. Javon Freeman-Liberty, DePaul
124. Adonis Arms, Texas Tech
123. Isaiah Mucius, Wake Forest
122. Michael Devoe, Georgia Tech
121. Au’Diese Toney, Arkansas
120. Terrell Brown Jr., Washington
119. Fabian White, Houston
118. Both Gach, Utah
117. Mark Smith, Kansas State
116. AJ Reeves, Providence
115. Malik Williams, Louisville
114. Bryce Hamilton, UNLV
113. Pavel Savkov, Baskonia
112. Matteo Spagnolo, Vanoli Cremona
111. Anthony Polite, Florida State
110. Izaiah Brockington, Iowa State
109. Brady Manek, North Carolina
108. James Akinjo, Baylor
107. Davion Mintz, Kentucky
106. Kok Yat, Overtime Elite
105. Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse
104. Isaiah Whaley, Connecticut
103. Eli Brooks, Michigan
102. Kellan Grady, Kentucky
101. Keve Aluma, Virginia Tech
100. Jules Bernard, UCLA
99. Gui Santos, Novo Basquete
98. Hugo Besson, NZ Breakers
97. Jermaine Samuels, Villanova
96. David Roddy, Colorado State
95. Johnny Juzang, UCLA
94. Luke Travers, Perth Wildcats
93. Jeriah Horne, Tulsa
92. Stanley Umude, Arkansas
91. Fanbo Zeng, G-League Ignite
90. Henri Drell, Windy City Bulls
89. Taevion Kinsey, Marshall
88. Iverson Molinar, Mississippi State
87. Orlando Robinson, Fresno State
86. Jacob Gilyard, Richmond
85. Gabe Brown, Michigan State
84. Bryson Williams, Texas Tech
83. Ibou Badji, Barcelona
82. Darius Days, LSU
81. Hyunjung Lee, Davidson
80. JeeNathan Williams, Buffalo
79. Jean Montero, Overtime Elite
78. Tyson Etienne, Wichita State
77. Khalifa Diop, Gran Canaria
76. Lucas Williamson, Loyola-Chicago
75. Quenton Jackson, Texas A&M
74. Vince Williams, VCU
73. Teddy Allen, New Mexico State
72. Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown
71. Kenneth Lofton Jr., Louisiana Tech
70. Tevin Brown, Murray State
69. Ziga Samar, Fuenlabrada
68. Keon Ellis, Alabama
67. Marcus Bingham Jr, Michigan State
66. Karlo Matkovic, Mega
Tier 10: Priority Two-Way/ Late 2nd Round Targets
In essence, this tier is a listing of people who we would want to snatch up either on draft night or immediately after. These are the guys we value enough to prioritize in that regard, but not who we’d have crack our top-45 or real priority list.
65. Jared Rhoden, Seton Hall
64. Tyrese Martin, Connecticut
63. Alondes Williams, Wake Forest
62. Scotty Pippen Jr., Vanderbilt
61. Michael Foster, G-League Ignite
Right on the bubble of being drafted, Michael Foster has shown enough skill to be considered a modern big man target. Foster is big and strong, produced a ton in a professional league at 18 and has intriguing offensive skills. Defensively he’s a major development, only shot 20% from 3 in game action and has questionable feel and shot selection. Not the type of big man we want to go crazy on investing in.
If Tyrese Martin makes it in the NBA, it will be because his motor and competitive drive are so strong. A tad rough around the edges skill-wise, Martin makes an impact wherever he goes and stands out in most settings. To us, that’s a guy who is worth targeting on a two-way to come into camp and provide value in the moments he’s called up and has to play.
The same goes for Jared Rhoden, a guy who struggles a bit as a shooter but has all the other intangibles out there. We view him more as a two-way guy than a draftable prospect, but for a team that wants to jump the line and secure their chance, Rhoden will have a chance to go in the top 45.
Alondes Williams is big and plays a flashy style; the size and elite playmaking IQ are attractive traits. We’re considerably lower on Alondes than most. His defense is… fine, but nothing to write home about. If the appeal of him is that he’s bigger so he can guard in more switchy or versatile lineups, the theory likely sounds better than practice. His shot hasn’t come along through several years of college hoops, and for every highlight-reel pass, there’s a putrid turnover and overly ambitious play. We prefer steadiness from older prospects, especially of the role player variety.
Finally, Scotty Pippen Jr. is one of the point guards who doesn’t get enough shine in this draft class. A competitive scorer with solid pick-and-roll polish, Pippen thrives off contact and has a very crafty arsenal. Shooting and defensive consistency can and must improve, but he’s on that borderline between G-League All-Star and NBA bench player.
60. Yannick Nzosa, Unicaja
59. Jamaree Bouyea, San Francisco
58. Julian Champagnie, St. John’s
57. Patrick Baldwin Jr., Milwaukee
56. Wendell Moore, Duke
These are the higher upside swings outside the late-round value names that, for one reason or another, we’re lower on than consensus. Yannick Nzosa clearly has defensive upside. He’s super raw on offense and has fallen greatly from the high praise he was receiving in the beginning of this cycle. He’s a draft-and-stash guy and shouldn’t come over right now, but we certainly understand the appeal for a team in going after such a good shot blocker.
Bouyea is a much better all-around player than he gets credit for, and he could easily outperform his draft position. An insane feel combined with good athletic traits, Bouyea scores it well, is a decent playmaker, effective on all three levels and competes on defense. He slots into that role as a ball-dominant backup guard fairly well and is ready for an instant impact. He’s going to win some team over in workouts and become a priority, whether in the later part of the 2nd round or with a two-way deal.
Julian Champagnie has been a tough evaluation for us. His role in the future needs to be that of a 3-and-D prospect, and his bigger frame makes him a solid 3 or 4 at the next level. But Champagnie didn’t shoot it great from 3 last year and has an unorthodox movement pattern. He’s decently strong and has more vertical pop than it looks. He could be a really good role player snag in the latter part of the draft.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. stands atop this list not because he’s the best player or best athlete, but he has the most scalable pathway to making it as a role player. He’s the only good shooter of the group… if all these guys are crawling right now in terms of their fit in the NBA, being a role player is learning how to walk, while stardom and a starting role would be running. We’d rather bet on a guy who can at least walk, and with his natural size and decent stroke, Baldwin has a role that can be hidden best in the NBA. The question with Baldwin is whether you’d rather hide somebody on offense or on defense. If you can be creative enough to hide PBJ on the defensive end, his role-playing return is there.
This will feel like a low grade that we have on Wendell Moore to some, but we simply don’t trust his game. The shooting improvement this year (40% from 3) isn’t enough to make us forget about the tough parts of his first two years. He doesn’t score it well enough with the ball in his hands to be a priority of a ball handler, though the athletic tools are solid. He’s a do-it-all role player whose style isn’t one we’re really drawn to. Combine that with our doubts about the shooting and Moore sits more on the back-end of a draft board than the front.
Tier 9: Late-Round Value Picks
We use tiers in our draft analysis because there are often ledges of talent, large gaps between where we see one group of prospects and another. Typically, this is a group that we would find at the bottom half of the second round. We could understand or justify them going a little higher to the right situation but are guys we’d feel more comfortable taking that gamble on in the 40s and 50s.
For these late-round values, we have them grouped either by position, skill overlap or type of impact (short-term vs. long-term upside) and clutter them together without true ranking. Instead, what you’ll find is the prospects in order within their position group based on our overall rank. This late in the draft, fit and what the organization needs long or short-term will change the order slightly based on who is drafting. For example, the Warriors will look for different traits in a big man than the Jazz. One prospect may fit better in Golden State’s system, and we’d gravitate towards them even if the other player is still available and technically higher on our board.
46. Walker Kessler, Auburn
49. Christian Koloko, Arizona
50. Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
53. Moussa Diabate, Michigan
55. Jaylin Williams, Arkansas
The three-man list of bigs here is one we spent a good deal of time talking about on a podcast with good friend Nathan Grubel of No Ceilings. A lot of this will come down to pick-and-roll coverage that is desired from the drafting team and where guys fit. Walker Kessler is a drop big, and while some flashes of switchability came at Auburn, he wasn’t good enough to earn our trust. A prolific shot-blocking season reclaimed his draft stock a bit, but he’s the type of guy we’d see getting played off the floor in a playoff series, no matter what his role is.
Christian Koloko has his fans in the first round, and we get why. He had a great defensive impact at Arizona this year, is long and athletic, and finishes well. The development rumors about the jump shot throw a wrench into things, but here’s where we are at with Koloko: he’s already 22, doesn’t strike us as a guy who does any one thing exceptionally, and lacks the versatility to be used in different PNR coverages. We get the appeal and can see him being a worthwhile second-round flier for a team that needs a Drop big, but we’re typically out on big men this old in the top-35 or 40.
Right behind him is Kofi Cockburn. Cockburn might have the same constraints, albeit he’s a little better of a finisher than Koloko. The concern with Cockburn is that there’s even less switchability or maneuverability on the perimeter, on both offense or defense. He’s got a great motor and is underrated a bit on the defensive end. He’ll get slept on a bit because of his return to school and the lack of a jumper, but he’s our bet for a second-rounder or undrafted guy who shows up and produces from day one. Great kid and a hell of a competitor.
Moussa Diabate has a ton of upside on the defensive end. His fluidity switching on the perimeter is notable for a younger big man, and he has decent touch in the post with his right hook on offense. The combination of rim protection (due to his size) and athleticism on the perimeter is what NBA teams should be drawn to. We don’t feel great about the long-term offense, both in terms of explosion off the roll and playmaking or shooting on the perimeter. An intriguing defensive piece, we think he’s more of a mid-to-late 2nd round target.
Finally, there’s Jaylin Williams, a guy we are struggling to buy into. Williams is great at drawing charges and making a defensive impact, but he doesn’t have a great deal of direct translatability to the NBA. If he makes it there, it will be due to his craftiness and angles carrying him on that end. The offense is built around his feel. He isn’t a great scorer, nor a shooter from deep, but his passing is tremendous. There’s an outside chance he’s a version of Al Horford, but he’s a case of a guy whose playstyle isn’t something we’re drawn to and wouldn’t want to spend a draft pick on.
42. Trevor Keels, Duke
47. Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga
51. Collin Gillespie, Villanova
Trevor Keels is an enigma and a little tough for us. 6’4” is what we call a tweener height: based on skill set, it can make or break guys. If Keels were more of a natural point guard, he’d be fine. While he’s strong, he’s a little small to play against bigger wings, and not the quickest guy on the ball. There are some legitimate NBA skills here: he’s a solid secondary playmaker, a sturdy defender with some 2-guards and gets his shoulder into guys at the rim. The shot was great in high school, and many believe he’ll get there again after a subpar performance at Duke. We’re surprised he stayed in the draft and thought the refinement of his skills should have been done in Durham.
Andrew Nembhard has good size for a point guard and is your classic game manager: a better passer than scorer but very skilled with great feel and just makes plays happen. We’re surprised Nembhard is rising all the way into first-round territory for some. Sure, the appeal of a known commodity in the 20s is always going to have pull with the right playoff contender. But Nembhard is less-than-certain as a shooting threat in our book and is inconsistent at best on the defensive end.
The game is trending away from smaller point guards having much of an impact, and with that, the threshold for being good enough to overcome that trend has risen. Collin Gillespie is a guy we really like and would want to bet on due to his intangibles and translatable shooting ability, but he’s still a slightly undersized point guard. Likely to go undrafted, we think Gillespie will return top-50 value in this class and force his way into the NBA in some form or fashion.
41. Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers
43. Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest
44. Dereon Seabron, NC State
52. Caleb Houstan, Michigan
Big wings! Big wings who can shoot!
Ron Harper Jr. is the most switchable of this group, and his physical outliers make him separate in terms of fit. We wish he had a little more of a statistical impact on defense with his dimensions, but he can legitimately guard 1 thru 4, finish through anyone at the rim and shot 39% from 3. The right switchable team will snatch him up, and to us, that’s harder to find than a one-position guy. For scarcity reasons, Harper sits atop the board here.
Jake LaRavia is the youngest of the group and has the smoothest 3-point stroke. He’s productive statistically on defense and is very long at 6’8”. We don’t love the lateral movements; he’s hit or miss when switched onto smaller guys. A solid athlete, LaRavia prefers a more subtle, controlled offensive game than a quick-twitch one. Big wings and primary guys can physically move him around a bit, and he doesn’t strike us as a great movement threat with stiff hips. We’d be out on LaRavia in the top-40, but can understand the appeal in a bigger shooting wing with strong playmaking feel in the late 2nd.
Dereon Seabron is a fascinating player; at 22, he’s already fairly old and lacks polish as a jump shooter and defender. But he’s big, athletic and can get into the paint whenever the hell he wants. He has legitimate first-round upside but two major areas to overcome (shooting and defensive aptitude). He’s the perfect late-round flier thanks to the already clear NBA-caliber ability to get into the lane whenever he hell he wants.
Finally, there’s Caleb Houstan, a guy who was much more hyped coming out of high school than he showed this year at Michigan. He’s not a very good athlete, and as he gets onto higher levels of basketball, that athleticism will get exposed. He shoots it well in the corners and has a little bit of upside on the move, but he’s not a good finisher and has heavy feet. We’d only gamble on Houstan once we get into the 50s. We can understand the scalable role to the quintessential 3-and-D player, but aren’t enamored with making that swing given the streaky nature of his jumper.
45. Peyton Watson, UCLA
48. John Butler, Florida State
54. Kendall Brown, Baylor
The upside swings group will always clamor for taking a shot on guys who were either elite in high school or have top-tier natural tools. To be clear, the later parts of the second round rarely deliver much on-court production (very few guys past 45 make it into the regular rotation), so why not swing for the fences at that point?
If you can hide Peyton Watson on offense, he can do a lot of good the other end: be a solid role player who defends multiple positions. That undersized 5/ athletic 4 stereotype fits him well, and as much as we try to avoid the college overlap, there may be a little bit of Kevon Looney in his future. Watson has raw tools to harness, but the offense is incredibly far behind. An investment in him is a hope that he can knock down enough shots and finish at the rim efficiently enough to use him as a defensive piece.
John Butler is the ultimate swing for the fences pick. Once we get to the 45th selection, as our guy CJ Marchesani likes to say, it’s a crapshoot anyway… might as well swing for the fences! Butler is a rare combination of size (7’0” with long arms), defensive ability (he blocks 2.0 shots per 40 minutes and is switchable onto guards) and shooting (40% on catch-and-shoot looks). That’s a hell of a talent gamble despite the thin frame and lack of ability to go inside the lane on offense. He’s two years away from being two years away, and that may scare some teams away from drafting him, but we’d love to see the right, creative franchise take a swing on Butler. He’s too rare not to gamble on.
This may come as a shock, but Kendall Brown was our biggest stock-dropper upon an end of season re-watch. We didn’t find anything he did at an above-average level right now to justify the investment. The athleticism is a tad overrated, and he didn’t measure very well at the combine. His attention to detail wasn’t there, he has zero confidence on offense and got blown by a ton for a guy with such an athletic reputation. There’s too much to clean up here for our tastes, especially mentally, for him to be worth a top-40 selection. He finished efficiently and is a solid cutter, but we don’t want to jump too early on a guy who we can best envision as a less engaged version of Andre Roberson.
40. Isaiah Mobley, USC
39. Ryan Rollins, Toledo
38. JD Davison, Alabama
37. Dom Barlow, Overtime Elite
Finally, four other guys in this tier who are worth looking at. Isaiah Mobley is very different than his brother, but he’s a solid prospect due to the combinations of traits he possesses. He’s a high-feel passer with rebound-and-run upside, can shoot the ball reliably from 3 and is more of a 4 as a defender than a 5. He should stick with some team, as high-feel role players who can shoot are all the rage right now.
Ryan Rollins has, quite frankly, fluctuated a bit on our board this year. We value a lot of what he does well: smooth scoring, good length, three-level potential. But he plays a little to slow and clunky of a game for us, isn’t as explosive as we’d like, and we don’t love the translatability of his catch-and-shoot game. His freshman year was pretty rough defensively, and that’s stuck in our head as a means for dampening some of his upside if he isn’t an elite scorer. We’d like him a little better if we bought into the catch-and-shoot impact.
Athletic point guards with some size have been good hits in the NBA. JD Davison is a top-shelf athlete, and without a doubt the best in this tier of prospects. He’s more raw than steak sashimi, and will need a ton of time before he comes around. Frankly, we were surprised he didn’t stay in college. As we say with guards who play with the ball in their hands, they can have one Achilles heel and overcome it, but they can’t have two. Right now, Davison has two: outside shooting and sloppy decision-making/ turnovers. He may not be far away as a spot-up threat, but his jumper with the ball in his hands needs a lot of work. A team that drafts him will have to decide which is most important to fix first: the ball security or the pull-up. Davison is a chuck at the dart board; he still has no idea how to play, but there are flashes of raw traits that make him investable.
Dom Barlow was one of our big last-minute risers. The athletic skill set, work ethic and size are so intriguing. Modern 4-man traits and the bargain bin version of Tari Eason… without a lot of the bad habits. The scrimmage revealed how far away he is, and we expected to see more in terms of effort from him in that setting. But the tools are there to invest in. Don’t be shocked if he goes in the 20s.
Click here for Part 2 of our 2022 NBA Draft Big Board